Wednesday, January 3, 2018

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Rohingya Crisis Makes Top 10 List of Conflicts to Watch in 2018

Posted: 03 Jan 2018 03:57 AM PST

YANGON — The International Crisis Groups (ICG) has picked the Rohingya crisis for its ignominious list of the top 10 conflicts around the world to watch in the coming year, warning of persistent risks for both Myanmar and Bangladesh.

More than 650,000 Muslim Rohingya have fled Buddhist majority Myanmar for Bangladesh to escape what the Belgium-based think tank calls the military's "brutal and indiscriminate" response to a late August attack on security force posts in Rakhine State by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA).

Rights groups and journalists have collected a litany of reports of mass rape, arbitrary killings and arson from the refugees, prompting the UN to call the military's behavior "a textbook example of ethnic cleansing." Myanmar's military absolved itself of any wrongdoing following an internal investigation.

In picking the crisis for its list, published Tuesday, the ICG warns that it has entered "a dangerous new phase, threatening Myanmar's hard-won democratic transition, its stability, and that of Bangladesh and the region as a whole."

It says the government has heavily restricted humanitarian aid to northern Rakhine and continues to hold onto a "hardline stance" toward the Rohingya, albeit with broad popular support stoked by racist rhetoric from Buddhist nationalists and state and social media. The West's moves to revive sanctions sent the right signal, it adds, but were unlikely to do much good.

Last month, Social Welfare Minister U Win Myat Aye told the Irrawaddy that Bangladesh and Myanmar had agreed to start bringing refugees back home by the end of January.

But the ICG says most refugees were unlikely to return "unless Myanmar restores security for all communities, grants the Rohingya freedom of movement as well as access to services and other rights, and allows humanitarian and refugee agencies unfettered access."

In private, it says, Bangladesh admits the plan is doomed but has done little to prepare for the refugees' stay, raising the risks of conflict between the newcomers and outnumbered locals facing rising prices and falling wages.

As for Myanmar, the ICG warns that a regrouped ARSA or other transnational groups could use the refugee camps as fertile recruiting grounds and launch cross-border attacks that would likely ratchet up already tense Muslim-Buddhist relations in Rakhine and even spark outbreaks of violence elsewhere should the attacks reach beyond the state.

"Acknowledging the crisis, implementing recommendations of the Kofi Annan-led Advisory Commission on Rakhine State, and disavowing divisive narratives would put the Myanmar government — and its people — on a better path," it concludes.

As reluctant bedfellows in the Rohingya crisis, Myanmar and Bangladesh share the ICG's list of conflicts to watch in 2018 with Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Sahel, Syria, North Korea, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen and the US-Saudi-Iran rivalry.

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Rewards of Independence Remain Elusive

Posted: 03 Jan 2018 02:32 AM PST

Seven decades after Burma freed itself from colonial rule, true freedom, prosperity and independence remain elusive for Myanmar, as foreign powers compete for influence and powerful military rulers continue to exert their grip. On the 70th anniversary of independence, we reexamine these issues by revisiting our cover story, originally titled "Independence Lost", from The Irrawaddy's January 2008 issue.

When Gen Sir Harry North Dalrymple Prendergast led his gunboats up the Irrawaddy River to Mandalay in November 1885, King Thibaw and his army were ill-equipped to defend the city, let alone protect the nation.

The last Burmese monarch, who was 28 years old and had hardly ever been outside the confines of his palace, was quickly shipped into exile. Burma, a country that had in its recent history expanded to conquer neighboring countries, had lost not only its king, but its independence.

Thibaw and his queen were quietly escorted onto the steamer Thooreah by British troops and sent to Rangoon. Burmese subjects were later shocked to learn that king had been captured and exiled by the British colonialists to Madras. He never returned.

To the British and Gen Prendergast, invading Mandalay was like picking fruit from a low-hanging tree. The locals, however, refused to condone the kidnapping and resentfully determined not to welcome the self-styled "deliverers from tyranny," as the British liked to consider themselves.

King Thibaw was pathetically weak and had not been a visionary in any way—prior to the British invasion, he received bad press in the West. He was portrayed as a monster, a mass murderer who killed princes and princesses, a womanizer and a drunkard.

Newspapers in Rangoon financed by British merchants had often called for an invasion or annexation of upper Burma. The British colonizers sought regime change and Thibaw was deposed.

Thant Myint-U, the author of "The River of Lost Footsteps," suggested that Mandalay was a stepping stone to unopened markets in Asia for the British merchants.

The Burmese historian wrote: "Years of British machinations had also produced a lively exiled opposition, and more than one of Thibaw's brothers were plotting to overthrow him from beyond the kingdom's borders. That Burma was a potentially rich country no one seemed to doubt, certainly not the increasingly vocal Scottish merchants in Rangoon, eager for unfettered access to the teak forests, oil wells, and ruby mines of the interior. What seemed even more tempting was the prospect of a back door to China's limitless markets."

Burma fought back, but Burma is a land of love and goodwill, the land of Buddhism, and in battle, love and goodwill could not resist cold steel. Brave Burmans fell in resisting the invaders, many feats of daring were displayed to the wonder-struck British soldiers; the Burmese warriors brandishing "dahs" would rush at British gun nests and cannon posts, bullets would cut down the brave comrades, but still the survivors would come on. At times even British military science was puzzled by the lightning manoeuvres and tactics of the defenders. At times the "dahs" silenced the cannons.

The article, “Rewards of Independence Remain Elusive”, as it appeared in The Irrawaddy Magazine's January 2008 issue under original title 'Independence Lost.'

But the fight was unequal from the beginning. British bayonets shed Burmese blood on Burma's soil, and slowly, the guns moved in.

When the Third and last Anglo-Burmese War was fought, the organized resistance of Burma had become very feeble and there were almost no severe engagements. It was not a war really; It was just a coup d'etat, a sudden storm that came down on the puzzled Burmese and blew away before they could realize what had happened. When the people recovered from the shock and surprise, King Thibaw and his Queen had been taken away by General Prendergast of the British invading troops. A brass tablet fixed on an outer wall of the Palace at Mandalay reads, "King Thibaw sat at this opening with his two Queens and the Queen-mother when he gave himself up to General Prendergast on the 30th November, 1885."

November 30, 1885: Burma's King had been taken away. Burma's throne had tumbled down. Burma had become "part of Her Majesty's Dominions and will during Her Majesty's pleasure be administered by such officers as the Viceroy and Governor-General of India may from time to time appoint."

But Burma woke up, though too late in fact. The people shook off their shock and went into action. Organized resistance became impossible since the King was gone and a leader to consolidate all the forces of the country was wanted. But undaunted, patriots formed themselves into small groups and waged their own war under their own leaders. For years the war went on. In the British Gazette of January 1886, it was said that peace was in Burma and order had been regained. On paper there was peace. But in the country the battle grew fierce within months. Guerrilla bands often expelled British garrisons and administered the towns and districts. The people hailed their coming, helped them, and hid them during their movements in times of difficulty. The occupation troops were kept busy all the time and at one point a Military Force of 32,000 men with two Major-Generals and six Brigadier-Generals commanding was actually brought into the field against the Burmese patriots. Vigorous offensive operations were launched, but still the patriots fought on. The exasperated British called the patriots "dacoits" and "gangsters" but it was worthy of notice that the "dacoits" did not plunder the villages they could hold, that the villagers were happy whenever the "dacoits" came, that the "dacoits" were only bent on fighting the British.

It was during those long years of determined resistance that such Generals like Bo Min Yaung became famous. Bo Min Yaung was the terror of the British garrisons in Middle Burma and it is interesting to see that General Aung San, Burma's war leader and front line fighter for freedom was a descendant of the famous Bo Min Yaung.

The article, “Rewards of Independence Remain Elusive”, as it appeared in The Irrawaddy Magazine's January 2008 issue under original title 'Independence Lost.'

The claim that Burma had swung back to normalcy soon after the occupation was complete, could not hide the fact that when the Viceroy visited Mandalay, "the members of the Hlutdaw, preserved a defiant attitude, presented no address of welcome, took no part in the proceedings and sat with their shoes on in the Viceroy's presence." Sitting in the Viceroy's presence with shoes on was but the mildest form of defiance which Burma showed to the usurpers.

Mopping up operations were intensified, the Military Force was strengthened, and systematic disarmament of the whole country was carried out. The patriots with no proper organization, no one leader to unite them, no set aims to inspire them, gradually became tired and disillusioned. Resistance thus ebbed slowly, but it was only in 1890, five years after the annexation, that the British could, with an approach to correctness, claim that law and order had been restored.

Burma resigned to her fate and gave up the struggle. It was not, however, a peace—it was but a truce. The storm had lulled, not died. Burma's fight for freedom was to be resumed again.

The invasion of Mandalay did not bring peace to the region.

Disquiet grew in the rural areas—subtle signs of resistance were detected; officials who worked at the court in Mandalay became increasingly uncooperative with their British masters.

The insurgency that followed was put down ruthlessly by the British—summary executions were rampant and often held in public, as were the beheadings of prisoners or "dacoits."

However, the unrest could not be quashed. The Burmese were too eager to restore their monarchy and establish independence.

Saya San, who named himself "King of Burma," led a revolt against the British in 1930, forcing the government to deploy 8,000 fresh soldiers, equipped with machine guns, to quell the year-long peasant revolt.

Monks, farmers, students, workers from oil fields in central Burma and political activists joined in the struggle to regain independence.

A grassroots civil campaign was born—the "Thakin" movement. Thakin, meaning "We the masters," an expression the British colonists used to denote themselves, was adopted by the young Burmese nationalists. Social welfare organizations and the Young Men's Buddhist Association all joined the fray in the independence struggle. Nowadays, one can draw many parallels between the civic movements, such as the "White Campaign," the "Open Heart Campaign" and the "Signature Campaign," which were launched by students and activists to oppose the military regime, to those early nationalist movements in Burma.

But it was the domino effect of events far away that would ultimately lead to the demise of British rule in Burma—the outbreak of World War II.

The golden land of Burma became a battlefield. In 1942, the Japanese had taken away and trained a group of young Burmese, including Aung San, to liberate the country from the British. That group would later become known as the "Thirty Comrades."

"Fifty-six years after Harry Prendergast's overthrow of King Thibaw, British rule in Burma collapsed like a house of cards, its soldiers and officials tossed out together with hundreds of  thousands of panic-stricken refugees by the elegantly mustached Lieutenant General Shojiro Iida and his Fifteenth Imperial Army. The Burmese had nothing to do with the war, but it destroyed their country," wrote Thant Myint-U.

After the British retreated, it didn't take long for the Burmese to realize that what the Japanese had granted them was no more than a "gold-plated independence."

Enter Aung San, an eccentric, short-tempered law student from Rangoon University, raised by his grandfather, rebel leader Bo Min Yaung, who was later beheaded by the British.

Aung San's single-mindedness, sincerity and straightforward speech won him friends and enemies alike. He realized that it would take nothing less than armed struggle to finally satisfy Burmese desires for independence once and for all.

Employing military tactics he had learned from the Japanese, Aung San led the Thirty Comrades in driving out the British. Ironically, a few years later, Aung San found himself allied with British battalions in bloody battles against the fascist Japanese army.

By age 32, Aung San had developed statesmanlike qualities and a readiness to lead his country. But this time the fight for independence would take place at the negotiating table.

During a stopover in India on his way to London to meet Prime Minister Clement Attlee in January 1947, Aung San delivered a speech, in polished English, declaring that Burma demanded "complete independence" with no question of dominion status.

Aung San also told the assembled press that his countrymen would have no inhibitions about contemplating either a violent or non-violent struggle, or both, if their demands were not satisfactorily met.

However, in July 1947, Aung San and the members of his cabinet—comprised of national and ethnic leaders who were ably equipped to lead the new union of Burma—were gunned down by rivals. U Saw, prime minister in 1940-42, ordered the assassinations, believing that he would naturally succeed as leader of Burma once more.

To this day, colleagues of Aung San who are still alive, in Burma and in exile, still believe that the British conspired with U Saw in the assassination plot.

In January 1948, Aung San's promise of "independence within one year" was honored, though without his presence.

Burma's independence was hailed by the international and local press, and a rosy picture was painted by most, including The New York Times, Le Monde, the Daily Telegraph and the London Times.

London's Daily Telegraph wrote: "Though she is the first country to detach herself from the British Commonwealth, Burma's future will be watched with goodwill and full sympathy."

The New York Times heaped praise on the new nation: "Burma, last of the Asiatic nations to be swept by force into the British Imperial domain, now becomes the first to withdraw peacefully from the British Commonwealth."

But trouble lay ahead.

After Aung San's assassination and the British withdrawal, Burma plunged into turmoil and civil war, despite a plea by newly appointed prime minister U Nu on Independence Day, January 4, 1948: "On this auspicious day, there is no room for disunity or discord—racial, communal, political or personal—and I now call upon all citizens of the Burma Union to unite and to labor without regard to self and in the interest of the country to which we all belong."

His message was not well-heeded—a full-blown multi-ethnic insurgency erupted.

Soft-spoken U Nu and his cabinet did not serve for long. However, many Burmese who lived in his era recall economic prosperity and the country's potential to become one of the "tigers" of Southeast Asia.

In March 1962, another member of the "Thirty Comrades," Gen Ne Win, stepped in and staged a military coup, claiming to save the nation from the abyss. The charismatic leader's coup was well-received with few street protests. The newspapers of the day offered little in the way of criticism in their headlines.

However, students at Rangoon University foresaw trouble and became vocal opponents. Ne Win demonstrated his ruthlessness by demolishing the union building in July of the same year and killing scores of students.

Ne Win's hands were now stained with blood and, like Shakespeare's Macbeth, he was compelled to retain the throne at any cost.

Ne Win died at the age of 92. He lived long enough to see his kingdom of 26 years fall from being Asia's rice bowl to Asia's basket case—one of the least developed nations in the world. Burma had not been saved—it had been ruined and left in a shambles.

In 1988, Ne Win resigned in disgrace, his socialist government facing mass protests. Before he left office he made what is now a famous speech. If the army shoots, he stated, it has no tradition of shooting into the air. It would shoot to kill. The speech was the green light to quell the uprising—about 3,000 street demonstrators were gunned down. Burma was a killing field yet again.

At the same time, Aung San's daughter, Suu Kyi, who had returned from London to nurse her ailing mother, also gave an unforgettable speech, saying: "This national crisis could, in fact, be called the second struggle for national independence."

Although Ne Win's "Burmese Way to Socialism" program was thrown out, his dynasty and the military dictatorship went on. Snr-Gen Saw Maung, Gen Khin Nyunt and Snr-Gen Than Shwe, all emerged, not as saviors of Burma, but as ghosts of Prendergast who had stolen the nation's independence.

The country is now colonized by a junta—this time, the invasion of our country was not by foreign colonialists but by its own home-grown military dictators who penetrate every corner of the country.

If Aung San were alive today, he would be shocked by his country's standing in the world. He might even look on with envy at Burma's neighbors who were also colonized by the British—India, Singapore and Malaysia.

In 1957, ten years after Burma proclaimed its sovereignty, Malaysia (then Malaya) declared independence, followed by Singapore in 1965. Today, the two nations enjoy the strongest economies in Southeast Asia and have promising futures. India is the largest democracy in the world and a growing superpower. Burma, for its part, lacks democracy, prosperity and stability.

Today, Burmese are not proud to call themselves people of Burma, a country identified with poverty, political conflict and military dictatorship. While Burmese citizens fight back to overthrow the regime, others flee the country. Burma is a pariah state and a troubled child in the eyes of the world.

Since the day Gen Prendergast arrived in Mandalay with his gunboats, Burma's freedom, prosperity and independence have been suppressed and denied, first by foreign invaders and then by various military regimes.

Sixty years later the fight for true independence in Burma is still not over. The September uprising was a manifestation of Burma's long struggle for independence and a reminder to the world community that the fight goes on.

This article originally appeared in the January 2008 issue of The Irrawaddy magazine.

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116 Casualties on ‘Death Highway’ Last Year

Posted: 03 Jan 2018 01:10 AM PST

NAYPYITAW — There were 116 casualties on the Yangon-Mandalay Highway in 2017, according to the highway traffic police force.

There were a total of 555 road accidents in which 116 people were killed and 863 were injured. Private cars were responsible for most of the traffic accidents, according to traffic police.

The number of road accidents and casualties, however, has declined compared to 2016, which saw 774 road accidents with 170 fatalities and 1,304 people injured.

"The main cause of road accidents is speeding," said police officer Soe Win of the highway police force.

As of June 1 last year, traffic police have required drivers and passengers of either private vehicles or express buses to wear seat belts while driving on the highway.

More than 20,000 vehicles use the some 400-mile highway daily and there are around seven road accidents a day, said the highway traffic police force.

The highway, which connects commercial hub Yangon, administrative capital Naypyitaw and the second largest city Mandalay, came into service in 2009 and is dubbed by local road users as the 'death highway' due to high number of accidents.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) has offered to provide a loan of more than $100 million to upgrade the highway, Deputy Minister for Construction U Kyaw Lin told reporters in November.

If the government approves the proposal, it will upgrade 40 miles of the highway by 2020 as a pilot project, he said.

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Govt Denies Rumors of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s Paralysis

Posted: 02 Jan 2018 11:43 PM PST

NAYPYITAW — The President's Office on Tuesday denied rumors that State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi had been paralyzed and said it was investigating the source of the claims.

"She is not paralyzed. She is performing her duties healthily. She has recently undergone a medical checkup," U Zaw Htay, spokesman for the President's Office, told The Irrawaddy Tuesday evening.

"Except for her eye operation [in April], everything is good. And she is always careful with her lifestyle to keep healthy," he added.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi hosted a public peace talk, the fifth of its kind, in Karenni State on Friday and returned to Naypyitaw the same day. She has not been seen in public since.

The Myanmar Herald reported that rumors that the state counselor had been paralyzed started to spread among astrologers and some politicians on Sunday evening.

U Zaw Htay said she was back at her office on Tuesday, after the New Year's holiday.

By Wednesday morning, the State Counselor's Office posted photos of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi arriving at the president's residence for a regular meeting, a move apparently intended to counter the rumors about her health.

Dr. Tin Myo Win, who has served as Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's family doctor for years, told The Irrawaddy that she was in fair health and that a press release would be issued if she fell ill.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi underwent a medical checkup in September at the Grand Hantha Hospital in Yangon. The 72-year-old also reportedly undergoes regular medical checkups in Naypyitaw.

Political analyst Yan Myo Thein said that rumors were not unusual in Myanmar's political history. But because Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was critically important to Myanmar's democratization process, he added, rumors about her had to be handled with great care.

"If the government informs the public about the health of leaders in real time, it will help control rumors and fake news to a certain extent," he said.

U Zaw Htay said he believed that some people were spreading rumors about the health of government leaders with bad intentions and that the President's Office had launched an investigation.

In early December, rumors circulated that President U Htin Kyaw's health had deteriorated and that he would soon resign. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi soon quashed the speculation.

"I have a suspicion that certain people are spreading rumors about the health conditions of important leaders to create political instability. If we knew who was spreading such rumors, we would know their intentions. But we have yet to find out who they are," the spokesman said.

Translated from Burmese by That Ko Ko.

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Irrawaddy Natural Resources Minister Resigns, Cites Poor Health

Posted: 02 Jan 2018 11:29 PM PST

PATHEIN, Irrawaddy Region — The Irrawaddy regional minister for natural resources, environment, agriculture and livestock has decided to submit his resignation on health grounds.

"My health is not good. I am no longer physically fit to perform my duties. So, I'll submit my resignation," minister U Ba Hein told The Irrawaddy.

The agriculturalist and author on agricultural science was appointed to the current ministerial position as of April1 last year in the Irrawaddy regional government led by Mahn Johnny.

During his tenure, the minister helped groups of small-scale fishermen win tenders at low prices for fishery ponds that were otherwise monopolized by rich fishery businesspeople for years.

As a result, wealthy fishery businesspeople in the Irrawaddy Region filed complaints in 2016 against him with President U Htin Kyaw, State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and chairman of the parliamentary Legal Affairs and Special Cases Assessment Commission U Shwe Mann, and U Ba Hein had to explain.

On May 31 last year, around 300 fishermen staged a protest against U Ba Hein, alleging that the minister abolished fishery pond leases granted in line with the law by the previous government, and that he violated the standard procedures and directly sold fishery pond leases to unlawfully-formed groups of fishermen.

U Ba Hein is a reformist, and his proposed resignation is due to the fact that he is restricted to undertake reforms, suggested director U Tin Lin Aung of Green Peasant Institute, an agricultural training school based in Pathein, the capital of the Irrawaddy Region.

"The minister tried to help small-scale fishermen get leases for fishery ponds. He also wants to handle land confiscation cases. But, there are legal loopholes and the overall authority is not in his hands, but in the hands of the chief minister," said U Tin Lin Aung.

"So, there must be a lot of difficulty for him to do what it takes to make those reforms. He gave the excuse of ill health for his resignation to avoid offending anyone, I think," he suggested.

The previous regional government of the Union Solidarity and Development Party led by U Thein Aung had two separate ministries—the forestry and natural resources ministry and the mines, agriculture and livestock ministry. But the National League for Democracy government combined them into one.

In February, the Mon State Chief Minister U Min Min Oo resigned from his post amid a scandal regarding his performance. In November 2016, U Htun Win, the deputy minister for agriculture, livestock and irrigation, was sacked by President U Htin Kyaw, after a dispute with his chief minister Dr. Aung Thu.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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US Warns North Korea Against New Missile Test, Plays Down Talks

Posted: 02 Jan 2018 08:12 PM PST

UNITED NATIONS/SEOUL — The US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, warned North Korea on Tuesday against staging another missile test and said Washington would not take any talks between North and South Korea seriously if they did not do something to get Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons.

Haley told reporters the United States was hearing reports that North Korea might be preparing to fire another missile.

"I hope that doesn’t happen. But if it does, we must bring even tougher measures to bear against the North Korean regime," Haley said.

South Korea on Tuesday offered talks with North Korea next week, amid a tense standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs, after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a New Year's Day speech that he was "open to dialogue" with Seoul.

Kim also said he was open to the possibility of North Korean athletes taking part in Winter Olympics South Korea hosts next month.

At the same time, he stressed that his country would push ahead with "mass producing" nuclear warheads in defiance of UN sanctions and that he had a nuclear button on his desk capable of launching missiles at the United States.

US President Donald Trump responded to Kim in a Twitter post on Tuesday: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"

Haley said the United States would not take talks seriously if they did not take steps toward banning North Korea's nuclear weapons.

"North Korea can talk to anyone they want, but the US is not going to recognize it or acknowledge it until they agree to ban the nuclear weapons that they have," she said.

Haley gave no details of the missile test preparations.

Another US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there were indications that could point toward a potential missile launch "sooner rather than later," but cautioned that such signs had been seen in the past and no test had resulted.

'Drive a Wedge'

US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said North Korea might be "trying to drive a wedge of some sort" between the United States and South Korea and added that while it was up to Seoul to decide who it talked to: "We are very skeptical of Kim Jong Un's sincerity in sitting down and having talks."

Trump, who has led a global drive to pressure North Korea through sanctions to give up development of nuclear-tipped missiles capable of hitting the United States, earlier held back judgment on Pyongyang's offer to talk, saying on Twitter:

"Rocket man now wants to talk to South Korea for first time."

"Perhaps that is good news, perhaps not – we will see!"

Trump has frequently derided Kim as "rocket man." The US president said sanctions and other pressures were starting to have a big impact on North Korea.

Kim and Trump have exchanged fiery barbs in the last year and the US president has warned that the United States would have no choice but to "totally destroy" North Korea if forced to defend itself or its allies.

North Korea regularly threatens to destroy the United States, South Korea and Japan and tested its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile in November, which it said was capable of delivering a warhead anywhere in the United States.

South Korea's Unification Minister Cho Myong-gyon said the offer for high-level talks next Tuesday had been discussed with the United States. Nauert said she was not aware if the matter had been discussed in advance of the South Korean response.

Cho suggested the talks be held at the border village of Panmunjom and said they should be focused on North Korea's participation at the Olympics, but other issues would likely arise, including the denuclearization of North Korea.

"I repeat: The government is open to talking with North Korea, regardless of time, location and form," Cho said.

Should the talks be held, it would be the first such dialogue since a vice-ministerial meeting in December 2015.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's New Year address and asked his government to move as quickly as possible to bring North Korea to the Olympics, but he stressed that an improvement in inter-Korean relations "cannot go separately with resolving North Korea's nuclear program."

China, which has persistently urged a return to talks to ease tensions, said recent positive comments from North and South Korea were a good thing.

"China welcomes and supports North Korea and South Korea taking earnest efforts to treat this as an opportunity to improve mutual relations, promote the alleviation of the situation on the Korean peninsula and realize denuclearization on the peninsula," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said.

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Tuesday, January 2, 2018

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Architects, Experts Slam Draft Law for Yangon City Development

Posted: 02 Jan 2018 05:37 AM PST

YANGON—A new draft law governing the development of Yangon has been condemned by architects and urban planners, who say it lacks a long-term vision for Myanmar's biggest city, as well as safeguards against conflicts of interest involving members of the city's development authority.

Yangon government-appointed experts and the Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC), the municipal body, drafted the new YCDC Law following a request by State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in late 2016. The law was intended to replace the existing 1922 City of Rangoon Municipal Act and to supplement the 2013 YCDC Law.

The YCDC is led by the mayor, who reports to Yangon Chief Minister U Phyo Min Thein. The committee comprises 11 members: the mayor, along with four government-appointed and six elected committee members. Since the National League for Democracy-led government came to power, however, no election has been held to select new committee members. For many years, the municipal body has been notorious for alleged corruption and failing to rein in unruly urbanization projects that have had negative consequences on the city's 5.2 million people due to a lack of systematic urban planning controls.

The draft was sent back to the Yangon Region Government in early December with remarks from a 31-member review committee, according to U Thein Myint, the secretary of the committee. The draft has not been made public yet.

Daw Nilar Kyaw, the Yangon Minister for Electricity, Industry, Roads and Communication, said the draft would be distributed to lawmakers in the Yangon Regional Parliament for discussion at the end of this month.

However, the contents of the draft drew criticism from professionals at a panel discussion held as part of the Architects Fair hosted by the Association of Myanmar Architects (AMA) in Yangon on Sunday.

"We are not pleased with the draft," U Sun Oo, the president of the association, told the audience at the "Our Vision of Yangon City" discussion, adding that he had hoped for a better one.

One of the panelists, Daw Hla Su Myat, said: "Frankly, I am not happy with the draft."

The architect said the new draft had weak provisions for managing urban projects in the city, while measures to prevent conflicts of interest involving YCDC members were nonexistent. Daw Hla Su Myat refused to discuss details of the draft, however, as it remains a "restricted" document.

"I want the new draft to offer a clear vision of what we want Yangon to be," said the executive member of the AMA, who is also  a Myanmar Architect Council’s representative on the draft review committee.

The Draft's Provisions

The Irrawaddy managed to obtain a copy of the draft for review. It comprises 30 chapters. Unlike the 2013 law, the new one contains a separate chapter on YCDC committee member elections. However, none of this chapter's 10 articles expressly prohibits an elected member from engaging in a conflict of interest, opening an opportunity for anyone in a high position to abuse their power for their own interests.

"We want the restrictions included in the draft. Even the 1922 Act includes provisions to prevent [conflict of interest]," said Daw Hla Su Myat.

Questions were also raised about Article 27, which authorizes the YCDC to form seven authorities with responsibility for Urban Planning; Building Regulations; Roads and Bridges; and Water Supply and Use, among others. The article dictates that each authority should comprise five members, overseen by a committee member, with participation from external experts and a department head. This article too fails to include any restrictions preventing conflicts of interest such as, for example, builders and other cronies of officials influencing the decisions of the authorities after being brought on board as "external experts".

Another controversial issue was the formation of YCDC-run business parties responsible for construction, the service industry, recreation and others, a policy that is seen as squeezing out other parties seeking to do business in those sectors.

Lack of Public Consultation

While it would potentially impact the lives of Yangon's 5.2 million residents, the YCDC draft fails to take public opinion into consideration, said U Maw Lin, vice chairman of the AMA.

"It has to be open to public participation. The public has to be aware of what should be or should not be in the law. If necessary, the government should accommodate the public's views. They should have a say in [the development of] their city. What is happening now is very different," he said.

U Sun Oo said the draft should be based on a long-term vision for the city and include input from all stakeholders.

"First, you have to keep in mind what kind of city—commercial or administrative, for example—you want, and the law has to support that vision," the AMA president said.

Daw Hla Su Myat recalled a meeting in June with experts from Singapore, who were invited to provide input in the drafting of the law.

"They said they would be able to make suggestions upon learning details of our vision for the city. But a YCDC representative replied they wanted to reform the law, form authorities and do business," she said.

As a review committee member, she said, the AMA's representative had submitted recommendations for the draft but was not sure if they would appear in the final draft.

When asked the reason for the document being restricted, the architect said she had the same question: "Why?"

"We voted overwhelmingly for this government. It should be transparent and consider public opinion when drafting a law like this one, to make it perfect," she added.

U Thein Myint, the secretary of the review committee, told The Irrawaddy that the committee had included its remarks in the amendments. However, the official refused to reveal what those recommendations were.

"It's up to the government if they make any changes or not."

Yangon Mayor U Maung Maung Soe was not immediately available for comment on Tuesday.

The post Architects, Experts Slam Draft Law for Yangon City Development appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Five Sued for Protest Against Alleged Military Executions

Posted: 02 Jan 2018 05:28 AM PST

YANGON — Five Karenni men are being sued for protesting against the Tatmadaw's alleged execution two weeks ago of four people, including three Karenni soldiers, and ordered to appear at the Loikaw Township court in Kayah (Karenni) State on Friday.

The five, members of the Union of Karenni State Youth (UKSY) and the Karenni State Farmers Union, led the Dec. 22 protest against the alleged execution of three Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) soldiers and a civilian two days earlier.

About 15 people protested for about an hour in downtown Loikaw, rallying in front of the military's Regional Operations Command, the state Parliament, the state government office and other locations, shouting slogans and condemning the Tatmadaw.

Loikaw Township police Captain Win Htay said the protesters had violated the Peaceful Assembly Law by failing to inform police of their plans 48 hours in advance.

“They should have informed us in accordance with Article 4 of the Peaceful Assembly Law so that we could help them clear the route and provide security and avoid any danger. Because they violated it, we have to sue them within 15 days of the day of the protest, so we did,” he told The Irrawaddy.

Dee De, one of the five protest leaders, said the police informed them of the lawsuit on Saturday but stood by their decision to demonstrate.

"The killing and burning of the bodies of the victims are war crimes,” Dee De said, calling it the worst case of murder by the military in the state since the country started on its democratic transition seven years ago.

The UKSY issued a statement on Sunday that labeled the deaths "murder" and called on the Tatmadaw and state government to find justice for the victims' families.

UKSY Secretary Khun Bernard told The Irrawaddy that the state government and Tatmadaw, which is investigating the deaths, need to take responsibility for any crimes.

“We want a just resolution of the incident,” he said.

The KNPP claims the civilian and three KNPP soldiers were detained when troops from the Tatmadaw's Regional Operations Commanded raided the KNPP's camp in Loikaw on Dec. 20. It says the military executed them at the camp and burned their bodies back at their base. The military claims the four were killed in a firefight during the raid.

The KNPP accuses the Tatmadaw of violating the bilateral ceasefire agreement it signed with the government in 2012.

It called for a tribunal including international legal experts to investigate the case and take action against anyone found to have committed a crime.

The Tatmadaw's internal tribunal team, led by Brigadier General Aung Khine Soe from the military's Eastern Command, heard testimony from the KNPP and others last week.

The KNPP presented its version of events at a press conference in Loikaw on Sunday, including a recording from Maung Lar, a KNPP soldier whom the armed groups claims witnessed the executions, escaped, and was now at an undisclosed location for his safety.

KNPP Second Secretary Shwe Myo Thant said the incident jeopardized ongoing negotiations between his group and government over the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). The KNPP is a member of the United Nationalities Federal Council, an alliance of armed groups yet to sign up to the deal.

“We have already said that we would follow the NCA path, but the negotiations are still going on,” he said. "It may look like the peace process is moving slowly. That's mainly because we do not want to exchange what we want for our basic rights cheaply."

He said the KNPP has shared its information on the deaths with the government's peace negotiators, including the offices of State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Tatmadaw Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

The post Five Sued for Protest Against Alleged Military Executions appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Analysis: KIO Kicks Off New Year with New Leadership

Posted: 02 Jan 2018 03:59 AM PST

The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) has marked the new year with its first major leadership reshuffle since 2016.

As a member of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), the KIO is one of the ethnic armed organizations that have yet to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

General N'Ban La has been appointed chairman of the KIO, replacing Lanyaw Zawng Hra, who is retiring after more than a decade in charge to make way for a younger generation of leaders. Lanyaw Zawng Hra replaced General Lamung Tu Jai as KIO chairman when he died in 2006.

New leaders were appointed to five senior positions: KIO chairman, vice chairman 1 and 2, and deputy chairman 1 and 2 of the Kachin Independence Council (KIC).

Gen N'Ban La's appointment was largely expected, as the organization's vice chairman traditionally replaces the outgoing chairman.

His path to the top spot was cleared by the 2015 ouster of then-Vice Chairman Lieutenant General Gauri Zau Seng, ostensibly due to his age. Gen N'Ban La filled the vice chairman position the following year, presumably with an eye toward ascending to helm the KIO.

The appointment solidifies Gen N'Ban La's grip on power within the overall organization, as he is now chairman of both the KIO and KIC, as well as commander-in-chief of the KIO's armed wing, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

Gen N'Ban La is known for his ability to dispose of potential rivals within the KIO. The first occasion was in 2001, when he orchestrated the ouster of the then chairman, Lieutenant General Mali Zup Zau Mai, paving the way for Gen Lamung Tu Jai's appointment. A second crackdown occurred on Jan. 7, 2004, at Pajau, the old KIO/A headquarters on the Chinese border. General N'Ban La, who was then KIA chief of staff, purged a handful of senior officers who had attempted a coup against him with the aim of replacing him with then intelligence chief, Colonel Lasang Aung Wah. Since that time, Gen N'Ban La has enjoyed been hailed by his subordinates as the savior and protector of the KIO/A.

Many Kachin observers now believe that having consolidated his leadership, Gen N'Ban La will lead the organization with a new, more military-oriented policy.

As part of the reshuffle, KIA chief of staff Lieutenant-General Gam Shawng, a former deputy chair 1 of the KIC, was promoted to vice chairman 1 of the KIO. Sumlut Gam, a former KIO chief negotiator, becomes vice chairman 2. Major General Gun Maw, formerly deputy chair 2 of the KIC, was promoted to deputy chair 1. Brigadier General Zong Buk Htan becomes deputy chair 2.

The shakeup was apparently implemented to create a new political landscape within the KIO and beyond.

What's in Store for 2018?

According to a statement released by the KIO on Dec. 30, the group plans to consult the Kachin public and seek its input on a new set of policies.

After pulling out of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), the KIO allied itself with another set of ethnic armed groups in the FPNCC. Gen N'Ban La holds the position of deputy chair in the bloc. The FPNCC is an alliance comprising the United Wa State Party (UWSP), Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North (SSPP/SSA-N), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Arakan Army (AA).

The KIO will continue to support the FPNCC's policy regarding Myanmar's peace process. The bloc has said that if invited it would attend the third session of the 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference initiated by State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, scheduled to be held later this month, possibly next month. However, fighting between the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's military) and the KIA has escalated of late, with no end in sight. Most recently, the Tatmadaw has staged attacks on several KIA battalions and outposts with ground forces, artillery and airstrikes, particularly in the amber-rich Tanai area in western Kachin State.

In fact, 2017, which the National League for Democracy-led government had promised would be a year of peace, turned out to be a year of suffering for many, with the government failing to address the Rakhine crisis and seemingly endless civil conflicts.

Once, while being interviewed by journalists after participating in the opening ceremony of the  second session of the 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference and privately meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in Naypyidaw, Gen N'Ban La claimed that "We [the KIO] never do an unsuccessful thing."

In 2018, we will have to wait and see whether he can lead the KIO to negotiate with the military and the government to bring peace to Kachin State.

Joe Kumbun is the pseudonym of a Kachin State-based analyst.  

The post Analysis: KIO Kicks Off New Year with New Leadership appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Regional Minister Impeached in Rakhine

Posted: 02 Jan 2018 03:16 AM PST

Rakhine State Parliament voted to strip state Municipal Affairs Minister U Min Aung of his duties on Tuesday.

During the parliamentary session, the proposal to impeach the minister passed with 37 of a possible 45 votes, the other eight opposed.

Minister U Min Aung tried to explain during the session on Tuesday that information collected by an investigation team looking into his performance was unlawful.

However, U San Kyaw Hla, the state Lower House speaker, stopped him and said that as he was no longer the minister he did not have permission to issue a complaint. The speaker added that the decision was made according to the law and that the investigation team had carried out its duties lawfully.

U Min Aung, who also serves as spokesman for the state government, was appointed by the National League for Democracy to serve as regional municipal affairs minister two years ago.

In November 2017, 17 members of the state Parliament from the Arakan National Party (ANP), the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) lodged a complaint against U Min Aung that claimed that the minister had not properly consulted on the state budget.

In early December 2017, Rakhine State Parliament formed an investigation team to look into whether the minister had failed to perform his duties, as lawmakers claimed.

In the Rakhine Parliament, nine seats are held by the NLD, three by the USDP, 21 by the ANP, one by an independent and 12 are reserved for the military.

The post Regional Minister Impeached in Rakhine appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Ten Things to Do in Yangon This Week

Posted: 01 Jan 2018 09:43 PM PST

Yangon Discount Fair 2018 | Jan. 4-7

A wide variety of consumer goods will be on sale at special discount prices.

Jan. 4-7, 9 am to 5 pm. Tatmadaw Hall, U Wisara Road.

Independence Day Games | Jan. 4

Telecom operator Ooredoo will organize games along with a performance by chart-topping singers Ye Lay, Ni Ni Khin Zaw, Sophia and more.

Jan. 4, 3 pm to 9 pm. Thakhin Mya Park.

Book Sale | Dec. 29-Jan. 7

Seikku Cho Cho will sell books at a discount at its shops across Yangon and Mandalay.

Dec. 29-Jan. 7, Seikku Cho Cho bookshops.

 

Children's Literature Festival | Jan. 6-8

There will be books for children plus fun and games at this event.

Jan. 6-8, No. 6 Basic Education High School (St Paul), Botahtaung Tsp.

 

Independence Movement International Film Festival | Jan. 3-5

Films on the struggle for independence in Myanmar, Vietnam, Ireland and Korea will be screened.

Jan. 3-5, 1 pm. Myanmar Motion Picture Association, No. 16, Wingabar Street, Bahan Tsp.

 

Jazz Under the Stars | Jan. 3

Jazz music will be played at a rooftop bar and lounge.

Jan. 3, 8 pm. Atlas Rooftop Bar & Lounge, 84 Pan Hlaing Road, Sanchaung Tsp. Free event, reservations at 09-767419413.

The Children's Choir of the Paris National Opera | Jan. 6

The choir's recordings range from classical to contemporary repertoires, Mozart to Britten, Pergolese and Vivaldi, all the way to opera rock.

Jan. 6, 6 to 8 pm. The Strand Hotel, Strand Road, Botahtaung Tsp. Tickets available at 01-243377

 

Myanmar Contemporary Art Exhibition | Dec. 26-Jan 21

A group art exhibition of 19 artists will feature contemporary paintings.

Dec. 26-Jan. 21, Gallery 65, No. 65, Yaw Min Gyi Road, Dagon Tsp.

The Harmony of Freedom | Jan. 4-8

The exhibition subject of retired professor Aung Kyaw of the National Culture and Fine Arts University is freedom.

Jan. 4-8. OK Art Gallery, Aung San Stadium (North Wing).

 

Contemporary Traditional Art Exhibition | Jan. 3-7

More than 20 artists will take part in this exhibition featuring contemporary traditional arts.

Jan. 3-7. Myanmar Artists and Artisans Association (Central), Bogyoke Market.

The post Ten Things to Do in Yangon This Week appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Fugitive Vietnamese Businessman Detained in Singapore, Lawyers Say

Posted: 01 Jan 2018 09:18 PM PST

SINGAPORE — A real estate developer wanted by Vietnamese authorities amid a crackdown on corruption has been detained in Singapore, lawyers representing him said on Tuesday.

Phan Van Anh Vu, 42, was detained in Singapore on Thursday at the Tuas border checkpoint as he tried to leave for Malaysia, said Remy Choo, who said he had been engaged by Vu’s family to represent him but had not yet been able to contact him.

Vietnam’s Ministry of Public Security said last month it was seeking the arrest of Vu, a major property developer in the central city of Danang, where the local leadership was shaken up after corruption accusations last year.

Vietnamese media quoted police as saying Vu was wanted for revealing state secrets. They did not say what these related to or whether that was linked to his role as a property developer.

Choo said Vu had applied for asylum in a European country.

Another lawyer retained by the family, Foo Chow Ming, said: "I am now trying to obtain access to see Mr. Vu, who is held in remand."

Singapore's Immigration and Checkpoints Authority did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry also did not respond immediately to a request for comment on Vu's detention in Singapore and whether Hanoi had sought his extradition.

Singapore has close diplomatic and trade ties to Vietnam. This year, Singapore is also chairing the regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations grouping, which has sought to strengthen regional cooperation on all fronts.

Dozens of Vietnamese officials and business figures have been arrested in a crackdown on corruption that has gathered pace since the security establishment gained greater sway in the ruling Communist Party in 2016.

The crackdown grabbed world headlines last year when Germany accused Vietnam of kidnapping a former oil executive to return him home to face trial.

The post Fugitive Vietnamese Businessman Detained in Singapore, Lawyers Say appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Detained Cambodian Opposition Leader Calls for Free and Fair Vote

Posted: 01 Jan 2018 08:30 PM PST

PHNOM PENH — Cambodia's detained opposition leader Kem Sokha called for free and fair elections in the Southeast Asian country in a New Year's message on Monday.

Kem Sokha, head of the banned opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was arrested in September.

He is accused of trying to overthrow the government of strongman Prime Minister Hun Sen with American help and of espionage – charges he denies and says are politically motivated.

In a two-page letter read by his daughter Kem Monovithya and posted on Facebook on Monday, Kem Sokha said Cambodia faces losing aid and its export markets abroad as well as condemnation by the international community after the CNRP's dissolution.

"Leave an opportunity for people to choose leadership representatives through an election that is free and fair," Kem Sokha said, calling for national unity and non-violence to solve the political crisis.

His message comes amid an ongoing crackdown by Cambodia's government on critics, civil society groups and independent media that rights group say amounts to the destruction of democracy.

Kem Sokha's CNRP was dissolved by the Supreme Court in November at the request of the government. The decision also banned more than 100 opposition lawmakers from politics.

That prompted the European Union and the United States to withdraw their support of the 2018 election.

Cambodia will hold a general election on July 29. Hun Sen has vowed to extend his more than 30 years in power by at least another decade.

Kem Sokha said 2017 was marked by big political crises that led to a "democracy walked backward."

A spokesman from Hun Sen's ruling party, Sok Eysan said there was little interest in Kem Sokha's new year message, adding that opposition politicians could create a new party.

"They have the political rights as citizens … to create a new party to compete," Sok Eysan told Reuters.

The post Detained Cambodian Opposition Leader Calls for Free and Fair Vote appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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Monday, January 1, 2018

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Analysis: Prospects for Peace in the New Year

Posted: 31 Dec 2017 07:27 PM PST

YANGON — Last year saw intensified fighting and friction between the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), the government and ethnic armed groups, continuing through to the end of the year. In December, the Tatmadaw's obstruction of public consultations for the Shan national-level dialogue deepened this friction.

The Tatmadaw deterred the Committee for Shan State Unity (CSSU)-led public consultations in Panglong, Kyauk Mae, Keng Tung and Lashio in Shan State and in Mandalay, and the CSSU could not complete its plan to hold talks in these areas.

A different understanding between the government and the Tatmadaw, and ethnic armed groups (EAOs) regarding the public consultations caused the block and stakeholders said they would have to negotiate to reach a common understanding.

The government and the Tatmadaw do not want public consultations under the title of national-level dialogue, while the EAOs see it is a necessary step to go through prior to gathering for the national dialogues (NDs), according to observers and stakeholders.

"EAOs understand that the public consultations are related to the NDs and thus necessary. But the government and Tatmadaw say the NDs should only be conducted once," said Khun Myint Tun, the chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization, which is a signatory to the NCA.

The government-led NDs on theme and region were done as one dialogue each without pre-consultations. Observers noted that these were rushed and lacked time to prepare and understand the political, social, economic, security, land and environmental aspects.

On Dec. 30, the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC)'s secretariats met to talk about preparations for the third session of the 21st Century Panglong Union Peace Conference (UPC), planned to convene later this month. They will further negotiate the ND and the consultations at the upcoming UPDJC meeting in the next two weeks, he said.

Prior to the second session of the UPC in May 2017, ethnic Karen, Chin and Pa-O were allowed to hold public consultation and ethnic-based NDs; while the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP) and the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) were not permitted due to security issues in Rakhine State and a non-negotiable venue in Shan State, respectively. In November, the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting for the NCA was able to negotiate that the RCSS led NDs could be held in Langkho (Lin Khay) Township in Shan State.

The government wants NCA non-signatories to sign the pact soon, but the non-signatories – the United Nationalities Federal Council and the Northern Alliance – are closely observing how freely the NCA implementation can be carried out. The Shan experience has given them something to think about.

"The Shan ND experience will give them additional insight before making their decision to sign the NCA pact," said Ja Nan Lahtaw, a facilitator in the government's peace negotiation.

New Year, Old Challenges

As 2017 ends, the New Year will begin with old challenges.

"We don't see any promising indicators," Ja Nan Lahtaw said, adding that the peace process will not see any drastic changes if the current pace and approach continue.

As a peace advocate, she is far more optimistic than many who have been disheartened by the way the government peace negotiators have performed regarding the peace talks. Despite the government's efforts, more fighting continues to break out in Kachin and northern Shan states. Observers have blamed this on fewer informal talks held under the National League for Democracy (NLD) administration than in the past under former President U Thein Sein.

Lamai Gum Ja, a Kachin peace negotiator, recently told The Irrawaddy "the way to bring both sides to the negotiation table has been lost," referring to his unsuccessful efforts to find a way to negotiate between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC) led by the state counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

Only changes in the peace process implementation will accelerate peace building in the new year, observers said unanimously, and all in agreement that the expectation for peace is very low given the current approach.

Mi Kun Chan Non, an ethnic Mon peace advocate, said the stakeholders' strong commitment kept her belief in the process strong, but that there seemed to be a lack of expectations regarding peace given that 2017 ending with continued fighting and friction in the northern and northeast of the country.

"Nothing is expected regarding peace because fighting has been ongoing in my constituency," said Nang Kham Aye, a Lower House lawmaker representing Namtu Township in Shan State.

She said her constituents have long suffered abuses of the Tatmadaw, as well as other ethnic armed groups in the area including the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army-North (SSPP/SSA-N) and the RCSS.

During the current parliamentary recess, she traveled around her constituency and said she heard gunfire day and night.

On Dec. 26, a village in Namtu faced artillery shelling and three houses were destroyed.

"My people were afraid and fled their homes, when they heard that Tatmadaw troops were coming toward their village, which the TNLA was already occupying," she recently told The Irrawaddy.

The TNLA, which has been active in the area including Namtu, is not allowed to participate in the peace process like its two other allies – the Arakan Army (AA) and the Kokang’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – due to the Tatmadaw’s reluctance to accept them as peace partners.

The government wanted the UPC to be held twice a year, despite challenges to this. But this also limits the opportunity for national-level political dialogue.

"In 2018, national-level political dialogue should be held more widely instead of holding the UPC twice a year," said political analyst Dr. Yan Myo Thein. He explained that the more talks are held between key stakeholders, including civil society, the better the political transition.

Despite 2017 not being the year of peace, he said that there were some positive developments. The groups based in the northeast, including the KIA and the United Wa State Army, traveled to Naypyitaw in May and met with State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Also, the first part of the Union Accord was signed.

The NLD government plans to change the military-drafted Constitution through the Union Accord drawn up through the UPC, and will seek approval from Parliament to do so. The Tatmadaw has so far agreed to the plan.

But observers doubt its effectiveness, in part because the first part of the Union Accord lacks key federal principles and is similar to the current 2008 Constitution.

"Concerns remain as to whether the UPC is an effective venue to change the Constitution," said Dr. Yan Myo Thein, "The government must plan how to move forward."

The post Analysis: Prospects for Peace in the New Year appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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Saturday, December 30, 2017

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

‘2017 Was a Year of Bad Luck’

Posted: 29 Dec 2017 07:43 PM PST

Kyaw Zwa Moe: Welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy! This week marks the end of 2017 and we'll take a look back at the political problems that surfaced this year. It is fair to say that 2017 has been a problematic year for Myanmar. We'll discuss to what extent the country will be able to move forward in 2018 amid those problems. Peace and ethnic affairs analyst U Maung Maung Soe and journalist Ko Thiha Thway, who has covered the overall political landscape as well as press freedom, join me for the discussion. I'm Irrawaddy English editor Kyaw Zwa Moe.

Dateline Irrawaddy: ျပႆနာေတြနဲ႔ ၂၀၁၇

Dateline Irrawaddy: ျပႆနာေတြနဲ႔ ၂၀၁၇ဒီတစ္ပတ္ဒိတ္လိုင္းအစီအစဥ္မွာေတာ့ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးႏွစ္အျဖစ္ေမွ်ာ္မွန္းခဲ့တဲ့ ၂၀၁၇ ဟာ ႏိုင္ငံေရး မတည္ျငိမ္မႈေတြ၊ ႏိုင္ငံတကာ ျပစ္တင္ေ၀ဖန္မႈေတြညံခဲ့တဲ့ ရခိုင္ျပည္ ပဋိပကၡအေျခအေနနဲ႔ တိုက္ပြဲေတြၾကားကၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးလုပ္ငန္းစဥ္ ေတြနဲ႔ အဆံုးသတ္ခဲ႔တဲ႔အေၾကာင္းေဆြးေႏြးထားပါတယ္။

Posted by The Irrawaddy – Burmese Edition on Friday, December 29, 2017

As I've said, it is undeniable that 2017 has been quite a problematic and tough year for Myanmar. Speaking briefly of those problems, the second session of the 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference was held at the beginning of the year. The National League for Democracy (NLD) said that 2017 would be the year of peace. But clashes continue. On Jan. 29, legal advisor to the NLD U Ko Ni was assassinated. It is believed that this was carried out by hardliners as a warning to those wishing to change the [2008] Constitution. Then, many journalists were arrested. And the biggest problem was the Rakhine issue, which has had a profound impact on the country. There was a lot of criticism and blame from the international community and a fresh sanction was imposed on a [Myanmar Army] general. And there were a lot of ethnic issues as well. Ko Maung Maung Soe, what is your assessment of this year?

Maung Maung Soe: The main political objective of this year was to achieve peace. The second session of the Panglong Conference was held with NCA [Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement] signatories, and actions to hold the third session are underway. But then, prior to the second session, national-level dialogues could not be held in Shan and Rakhine states. Now, with the government planning to hold the third session, national-level dialogues are still not allowed in Rakhine State. Though they were allowed in Shan State, there have been impediments and disturbances.

Again, though the second session reached consensus on 37 points, there were disputes about the way decisions were made there. And besides the unsuccessful talks with the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) of NCA non-signatories, there has emerged a new bloc, the seven-member Northern Alliance. An agreement with the four-member UNFC has not yet been reached to sign the NCA. Meanwhile, the FPNCC [Federal Political Negotiation Consultative Committee of the Northern Alliance] is not recognized by the government and the army, and still can't meet for talks. That's why we have heard heavy gunfire toward the end of this year.

Though this year is said to be the year of peace, the peace process has stalled. Under such circumstances, the 'Bengali' [referring to the Rohingya] issue arose in northern Rakhine State, which led to displacement of people, casualties and damage to property. The worst part of it is that Myanmar faces a crisis on the international stage, especially on the UN front. As for the economy, though it was said that Myanmar's economy would shoot up like a jet plane this year, everyone now accepts that the economy didn't pick up as well as expected. Economically, there are problems like high food prices, high inflation and a high exchange rate. Though this year was touted as the year of peace, considering the country's current situation, it is fair to say that 2017 was a year of bad luck.

KZM: Things are not developing in favor of the country. Ko Thiha, as Ko Maung Maung Soe has pointed out, there are problems regarding the military, economy, peace and press freedom. How do you assess those problems? What do you think is the main cause of them?

Thiha Thway: It is the consequence of the political force that used to be the main political opposition was elected and came to power unexpectedly, in the context of the administrative mechanism set up by the military and its associated political parties who were the original power holders. There are resultant frictions and disunity when different forces have to work together. They are not able to cooperate strategically, their cooperation limits to only where it is possible, and they blame each other. Those problems in question are the result of these circumstances.

The worst problem is—both Rakhine and peace problems have existed long before, and while those problems have not yet been solved, an unexpected problem has popped up. We had expected that we would receive considerable support from the international societies, especially the western countries, when Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's government took power, but then it turned out to be considerable pressure instead. It was unexpected.

Concerning the media, they have provided great support for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her party throughout their struggle. The media did play an important part. But then, the media started to face the old things again when the new government took power. The forces that used to stand behind the NLD government now have to confront it for its treatment of the media. This is quite shockingly an unexpected turning point of 2017.

We have to see if it is the problem of the NLD government or the military or both. In my opinion, both have problems. They have different interests, objectives, and values that they think they must protect. Rather than striking a balance between those values, they are defending their values and objectives. They are supposed to play together on the same team, but instead they are grabbing the ball against each other and making sloppy passes. So the play fails as a result, and rather than scoring against the other side, they stumble on each other, fall and slide into chaos.

KZM: We The Irrawaddy are publishing around 50 of the biggest stories of 2017, ranging from the H1N1 virus to a boat tragedy to armed clashes. But speaking of political issues, the main cause of the problems is that there is no unity. And I wonder if there are residual hardliners on the different sides. Talking of the peace process or media or economic policies, I wonder if the government is lacking in capacity to achieve results in those areas. Gen Aung San worked for unity as well as peace and prosperity. What changes do you think should be made?

MMS: Mainly, the 2008 Constitution needs to be changed. There are two separate forces because of the 2008 Constitution. The elected government has its mandate and Parliament can make decisions with a majority of votes. But on the other hand, the 25 percent of military personnel [guaranteed in Parliament] have their own authority according to Article 436 of the Constitution. The government has its own mandate and the military also has authority over certain things.

Though they are talking about national reconciliation, they have failed to translate it into reality. Both sides have weak points. For example, the government is weak in leading and negotiating the peace process. Though the NLD takes the lead role in the peace process, NLD members can't play well in the main role. Though the peace commission is led by Dr. Tin Myo Win, the role played by NLD members in the negotiation process in very limited.

Again, the NLD said that it would build a federal Union, but it has now been in office for nearly two years, and yet it has not clearly articulated its definition of federalism. What's more, it has not coordinated with ethnic parties, which are the major parties in ethnic areas over the past years. This is a weak point of NLD.

And speaking of the NLD-led government, it barely includes young and middle-aged party members. And it is recruiting former military officials and former civilian bureaucrats to its cabinet. And most of them are 60 to 70 years old. So, the government is slow. The government doesn't include young and middle-aged persons who have worked for the NLD continuously. Though they are talking about removing the 25 percent of military personnel from Parliament, there are more than 50 percent in government. This is the reality.

KZM: You mean members of the previous government?

MMS: Yes. There may be at least 50 percent [of ministers and officials of the previous governments] appointed by the NLD to its cabinet though there are only three ministries held by the army according to the Constitution. So, including those appointed by the NLD itself, its government has around 50 percent [of former ministers and officials].

KZM: Yes, this is a weak point of the NLD government. So, you mean the cabinet structure drawn up by the NLD with the intention of facilitating national reconciliation is not well balanced, and the proportion of [former ministers] is higher?

MMS: Yes. Speaking of the army, it sticks to the NCA policy in the peace process. But it has been two years since the signing of the NCA, and there are no new signatories. The government alone is not to blame for this, but it is also because of the policy held by the army. And the army has not bothered to review its policy so far.

The government doesn't agree with labelling four ethnic armed groups as insurgents but the army does and refers to them as insurgents in its statements. And many clashes happen in the name of regional stability operations every year, and the government can't do anything to stop them. This problem will continue unless and until there is ceasefire. The army shelled the KIA [Kachin Independence Army] on Christmas Eve. But the government sent Christmas wishes. So, there is no harmony.

KZM: They are acting on their own.

MMS: Yes. Township-level political dialogues were held in Shan State. However, there is an argument that holding township-level dialogues was not formally agreed upon at the UPDJC [Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee] meeting. But then, if the army wants to stop those gatherings, those townships are under the administrative control of the civilian administration. So, if those gatherings are to be stopped, they should be stopped by the civilian administration using police or the General Administration Department (GAD).

Even from the point of view of the Constitution, those areas are not places where a state of emergency has been declared and a military administration is installed. So, the GAD and police should stop this, which is only the reasonable way. But it was instead stopped by the army, which is not only annoying but also incites negative feelings among the people, and is also not good for the military's image. Unless this situation can be changed, 2018 will continue to be tough.

KZM: It will be quite difficult to change. And it will take quite a long time to change the Constitution. There are people who don't want to change it. And it is one of the main responsibilities of the Tatmadaw [Myanmar Army] to safeguard the Constitution. It has officially declared it. So, it will take awhile. What can the NLD government and lawmakers do within the limitations of the Constitution? This is the question. If changes can only happen after the Constitution is changed, I'm afraid we have a long way to go. Ko Thiha, to what extent do you think the NLD will be able push for changes within the limitations of the Constitution? I think there are a lot of opportunities for the NLD to push for changes.

TT: In my opinion, there are two parts. The space provided by the 2008 Constitution is wide. There are a lot of things that can be done within that space. And it is true that the central and regional governments and NLD lawmakers can't take full advantage of that space. The government should focus to take full advantage of it and try to bring about current development. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's strategy is to link constitutional reform with the Panglong Conference and move forward to federalism through Panglong. And she is also pulling the army along with every step she takes. But I've noticed that the army has resisted in some cases.

I'm not saying that her strategy is not good, but in my view, we need a new Constitution that is acceptable to all in order to establish democratic federalism in the long-term. While this long-term process is being done, at the same time I'd like to urge the military and government to coordinate to make preliminary changes to the Constitution for the short-term. I've noticed that in either the peace process or the Rakhine issue, once a problem arises in Myanmar, other problems follow and the Tatmadaw is labelled as the culprit. Anyway, the government has to take the overall responsibility and is also faced with repercussions, as is the country. And the consequence is a loss of trust.

It undermines the trust of the international community in our country, trust among ourselves and the trust of ethnicities [in the government]. So, to put it simply, the government has no influence over the military. In my opinion, it is difficult for all [stakeholders] to gather together and reach consensus as unexpected problems usually pop up at the negotiation table. So, I think the Tatmadaw and the government should negotiate to reach an agreement over how far they can go together, and change [the Constitution] to a possible extent. If this can be done, both people and armed ethnic groups will have certain level of trust in the Tatmadaw and the government. Their trust in them has declined as the time goes by because there is no constitutional change despite their promise.

KZM: How good is the relationship between the Tatmadaw and the government in reality?

TT: Both sides have to establish it.

KZM: Journalists have asked Daw Aung San Suu Kyi about the relationship between the Tatmadaw and the government. And she said that it is normal. We don't know by normal if she means good or bad. But, the relationship was once poor. We can't say it is normal. How do you assess it? It will be difficult for the two to build good relationships to the extent that they agree to change the Constitution.

TT: If the Tatmadaw and the NLD get on well with each other and if the space provided by the Constitution is expanded, things will be easier.

KZM: Yes. Since the NLD declared its seven-point manifesto, it has said that it would work for concomitant constitutional change through the Panglong and peace process—first at the state level, and then Union level, and constitutional change [in Parliament] and then the 2020 election. And the ultimate aim is to build a federal Union. But, I think there is a very long way to go. Ko Maung Maung Soe, what do you think of the relations between the Tatmadaw and the government?

MMS: There are things that can be done for the time being while it is still impossible to amend the Constitution. [The NLD government] can handle ethnic issues. It can consult with political parties and people, and enact by-laws in Parliament for ethnic rights. As general administration departments [overseen by the Home Affairs Ministry] have full authority in districts and townships now, Parliament can enact by-laws to give the mandate to lawmakers.

For example, the budget of a state government only accounts for 0.7 percent of the Union budget. So the total budget is just 11 percent altogether for 14 regions and states. [The Union government] can increase their budgets. But then, if the army doesn't agree, there will be problems. But there is one place where negotiations can be made—the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) enshrined in the Constitution.

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has called for summoning an NDSC meeting. And I also heard that the army has done the same. Can't [the NLD government] view this as an opportunity for negotiating [with the army] once a week without making any decision by vote? Won't it reduce the problems? They [the NLD government] have taken it for granted that the military will win if a decision is put to a vote at the NDSC meeting [as six posts are held by the military in an 11-member committee]. But, if they view it as a venue for negotiation and not a place where decisions will be made by vote, then both the NLD and the army can negotiate political, economic and peace problems there.

KZM: But I'm afraid there are unseen barriers for the government to do so.

TT: As far as I'm concerned, the concept of the army is a problem. The provisions provided in the Constitution are another part of the problem. But setting aside those provisions and taking a look at the connection between the army and the Constitution, I found that the army safeguards it as a direct inheritance. The army views itself as the force protecting independence, and at the same time it has concerns that independence may be lost at anytime because of civilian political forces. This is the army's problem. That's why it overstepped its boundary and stopped political dialogues in Shan State against the procedures. It has the mindset that it is the protector of independence and the Union and responsible for preventing its break up.

This is a problem of different values the two sides are upholding in politics. If their values do not match, or if they don't try to strike a balance, there will be no harmony between the government and the army. In my opinion, the government and the army should find a common ground and think about preliminary actions to tackle the constitutional challenge. If they can find a common ground, and change the Constitution to a workable extent, then both of them will win the trust of ethnicities and the people. This is the step that I want them to take. They must show how much they are willing to take the initial steps to work together. The perception that the two don't see eye to eye and that the two are divided brings pressure from outside stakeholders. It raises doubts, accusations and counter-accusations.

KZM: This is exactly the way outsiders perceive it. National reconciliation is said to be most important thing in rebuilding a country, but in our case, reconciliation efforts go nowhere. The NLD government has been in office for two years, and taking a look at the media in 2017, a total of 11 local journalists were arrested. Not all of them were arrested because of complaints of the NLD government. Some of them were arrested by the army and the Home Affairs Ministry, though all of those cases have had a negative impact on the reputation of the government. There are cases brought by the government, for example, Yangon region chief minister U Phyo Min Thein. As far as I'm concerned, some NLD leaders or lawmakers may not accept or like that press freedom is an important estate in a democracy. What do you think, Ko Thiha?

TT: Especially, authorities. By authorities, I mean the military leaders as well as politicians who now have risen to power. Those who have come to power might have forgotten to value democratic values. And some of them don't understand such values. This is the main point. It is important for authorities to have the democratic attitude that this particular estate must be strong whether they like it or not. They can't just ignore it just because it criticizes them. They should not neglect the role of media organizations just because they are critical, but they need to have democratic point of view, attitude and values. This is critically important. In our country, both the government and the majority of people at present do not attach appropriate importance to democracy. And the leadership should attach greater importance.

KZM: Media is mainly about monitoring. If the leaders and lawmakers have fairness and transparency, they have nothing to be afraid of. Only when they have things to hide, should they be afraid of it. And I'm afraid some don't understand it. 2017, according to Ko Maung Maung Soe, was a year of bad luck, and I'd say it was riddled with problems. We'll wait and see what will happen in 2018. Thank you both for your contributions.

The post '2017 Was a Year of Bad Luck' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Recommended For You

Posted: 29 Dec 2017 06:30 PM PST

As the year comes to an end, here are The Irrawaddy's picks of our incisive commentaries, definitive data journalism and analytical news stories that can help you learn more about Myanmar today. If you missed them, now is the time to catch up. Happy reading and Happy New Year!

 

Myanmar Army chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing with the vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission, Lt. Gen. Xu Qiliang, in Beijing on Thursday. (Photo: Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing / Facebook)

Big Brother to the Rescue

With the Rakhine crisis strengthening China’s hand and limiting Western influence here, the government must plot a new strategic course.

 

Col. Keiji Suzuki. / Public Domain

The Man Behind the Burma Independence Army

Col Keiji Suzuki and Japan's direct involvement in Myanmar's independence movement has had far reaching consequences, writes Aung Zaw.

 

Overview of the Pledging Conference for Rohingya Refugee Crisis in Bangladesh at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland October 23, 2017.(Photo: Reuters)

Collaboration is Key to Solving Rakhine Crisis

Important players in the crisis need to establish a common understanding.

 

Myanmar journalists staged a ‘Stop Killing Press’ campaign in Yangon in 2014. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Press Freedom and the Invisible Line

Do we have press freedom in Myanmar? Yes, we do, but with an invisible line…. When you touch or cross it, you're finished.

 

Myanmar Army chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing (center) with President U Htin Kyaw, State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, vice presidents and house speakers on Oct. 15, the day marking the second anniversary of the signing of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. (Photo: Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing / Facebook )

Reassessing the Role of Myanmar's Powerful Military

The Tatmadaw is still at the epicenter of politics. No understanding of it will prevent world and domestic leaders from achieving their goals.

 

A road in downtown Yangon in 2013.(Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Yangon: My City at Breaking Point

Once a jewel of Southeast Asia, uninhibited development, crumbling infrastructure, and unintuitive transport policies have pushed Yangon to the edge.

 

U Lwin, U Aung Shwe, U Kyi Maung and U Tin Oo.

The Khaki Guardians of The NLD

Four ex-army men moved the NLD forward while former military regimes attempted to suppress the party.

 

United Wa State Army soldiers parade through the Wa regional capital of Panghsang.(Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

The Rule of the Wa

The United Wa State Army recently weighed in on Burma's process as never before, but what part will it really play, asks Lawi Weng.

 

The recently named General Aung San Bridge between Moulmein (Mawlamyine) and Chaungzon townships on the Salween River in Mon State. (Photo: Nyein Nyein / The Irrawaddy)

What is Wrong With the NLD's Policy?

The top-down naming of a Mon State bridge—despite local objections—shows how the NLD government is wavering in its bid for national reconciliation.

 

Rohingya refugees who fled from Myanmar wait to be let through by Bangladeshi border guards after crossing the border in Palang Khali, Bangladesh October 16, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Rakhine Crisis in Numbers

The Irrawaddy illustrates the casualties and carnage of the latest Rakhine crisis in infographics.

 

About 1,000 students from Yangon’s University of Nursing protested against the Ministry of Health and Sports' policy of issuing nurse license certifications to graduate nurses only after three years of working in government hospitals. March 15, 2017. (Photo: Myo Min Soe / The Irrawaddy)

Challenges Impede Development of Myanmar's Public Health

Data shows that the health system has improved under the civilian government, but remains hobbled by a lack of manpower, poor funding and an urban/rural divide.

 

Supporters celebrate as they watch official results from the Union Election Commission on an LED screen in front of the National League for Democracy Party (NLD) head office in Yangon, Nov. 9, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Two Years After Election, a Mixed Report Card for NLD

As it marks the 2nd anniversary of its historic victory, the party can point to progress on health and rights, but democratic, economic development is slow.

 

Members of parliament attend a meeting at the Lower House of Myanmar’s Parliament in Naypyitaw March 10, 2016. (Photo: Soe Zayar Tun / Reuters)

What has Parliament Done so far?

Parliament draws praise for targeting oppressive laws, but some say lawmakers are not going far enough.

 

U Thet Nyunt at his home in Rangoon.

Father, Son and Granddaughter Art Exhibition

A family with three generations of artists hosts a show featuring around 200 acrylic and watercolor paintings.

The post Recommended For You appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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