The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Monks Conference Calls for Harmony, Criticizes Interfaith Marriage Draft Law
• 2 Arakan Political Parties to Unite
• Burma through the Looking Glass
• Respected Mon Leader Nai Rotsa Dead at 67
• Head to Head With a Burmese Hardliner
• Informal Weekend Peace Talks Held between Govt, KNU
• 15 Ethnic Parties to Unite ahead of 2015 Elections
• Monks’ Conference Calls for Peace, Drops Interfaith Marriage Restrictions Plan
• Export Slowdown Threatens Emerging Asia’s Economic Boom
• Burma is due to approve a new law that would establish the Central Bank as an independent body.
• Arakan State’s two main political parties, the RNDP and the ALD, are planning to merge.
• 167 Burmese nationals return to Burma from Malaysia after attacks on migrant workers there
• Foreign tenders will be accepted for a ‘megacity’ project planned for northern Rangoon
• Law to Establish Independent Central Bank Due Soon
• Two Arakan Political Parties Discuss Merger
• 167 Migrant Workers in Malaysia Return to Burma
• Burma to Take Foreign Tenders on Rangoon ‘Megacity’ Project
• Thailand’s Boom: To the Northeast, the Spoils
• Bangladesh Factories’ Safety Issues Run Deep: Survey

Monks Conference Calls for Harmony, Criticizes Interfaith Marriage Draft Law Posted: 17 Jun 2013 06:11 AM PDT Senior Buddhist monks U Dhammapiya, left, Ashin Saekaneda, center, speak to the media at the end of the Buddhist monks' convention on Friday. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) HMAWBI Township — A two-day conference of Buddhist monks concluded on Friday without any mention of a proposal by nationalist monk U Wirathu to lobby for a law that would put restrictions on Buddhist-Muslim marriages. Instead, the organizers called for peace and communal harmony in Burma and denounced the proposal. "To accept or not to accept the so-called restrictions on interfaith marriage will be decided in accordance with human rights [standards]. Anybody can marry at their own will," said U Dhammapiya, a senior monk and a spokesman for the convention. "I will not accept someone forcing others to convert to their religion. If it violates human rights, we cannot agree to it," he said, adding that the organizers had not been involved in drafting the law. U Wirathu, a Mandalay-based monk who leads the controversial 969 nationalist campaign, has produced a 15-page draft law that would require any Buddhist woman seeking to marry a Muslim man to first gain permission from her parents and local government officials. The draft law, which he had been circulated at the convention and among journalists, would also require any Muslim man who marries a Buddhist woman to convert to Buddhism. Those who do not follow these rules could face up to 10 years in prison and have their property confiscated, according to the draft. U Wirathu had vigorously defended the draft law on Thursday at a press conference, sitting beside U Dhammapiya and Ashin Saekeinda, the abbot of a monastery in Hmawbi Township, located just outside Rangoon, where the convention was held. But on Friday afternoon, Ashin Saekeinda said he did not know who had circulated the draft law among participants and journalists, adding that it did not represent the position of the monks' convention. "I don't know who delivered [the draft law]. I managed the meeting personally. I organized the meeting democratically and allowed anyone to participate," the abbot said. "I said that only [joint] announcements made during our meeting are official. Others issues don't have anything to do with our meeting," he added. On Monday, eight Rangoon-based women rights' groups issued a joint statement condemning U Wirathu's proposed draft law, which he had claimed would "protect Buddhist women's freedom." The organizations included the Karen Women’s Action Group, the 88 Generation Students Women Network, and the Triangle Women Support Group. "Buddhist women are the target of this draft law, and we know nothing about it all. The ones who drafted the bill are monks. That means it doesn't represent women," said Zin Mar Aung, a founder of the Rainfall Gender Studies Group and a well-known women's rights activist. At the conclusion of the convention on Friday, its 227 participants issued a statement regarding the ongoing inter-communal tensions. "We promote peaceful coexistence with all those who are living in the country," the statement said, adding that the convention had identified seven areas of focus, which included "solving conflict by means of Buddhist way," "promoting studies that lead to peace-building" and "law and order enforcement for peaceful coexistence." "We object to any action, false accusation or statement against Buddhism which are detrimental to Buddhism and the dignity of Buddhist monks," the statement noted. Ashin Saekeinda said, "These points were announced on behalf of all the monks in the country. It is an endeavor to educate the monks about peace, should they not understand it before. It is a discussion for the peaceful co-existence between religions." The abbot went on to state that the symbolic number 969, which is supposed to represent the tenets of Buddhist philosophy and teaching, is being abused by some during the volatile democratic transition period in Burma. "Presently, the morale of those who are under 35 or 40 [year of age] is ruined and they've turned away from peace. As they are morally ruined, we try to guide them by means of sermons. Here, the number 969 exploited for evil purposes by some," Ashin Saekeinda said. U Wirtahu leads the nationalist 969 movement, which has encouraged Buddhist communities across Burma to shun Muslim-owned businesses and support Buddhist-owned shops instead. His campaign has been accused of inflaming growing sectarian tensions between Burma's Buddhists and Muslims, who are estimated to make up some 5 percent of the country's total population. Violence between Buddhists and Muslim communities broke out in Arakan State, western Burma, in June last year. The unrest has since spread to dozens of towns in other parts of the country. Hundreds of people have been killed and more than 150,000 people — mostly Muslims — have been forced to flee their homes. Nationalist Buddhist monks have been accused of openly supporting the violence by calling for the removal Muslims from towns and villages in order to establish Buddhist dominance. In some cases, monks were reportedly observed participating in and organizing the street violence.

2 Arakan Political Parties to Unite Posted: 17 Jun 2013 05:27 AM PDT Members of the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP) and the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) hold a press conference on Monday in Rangoon, announcing a decision to merge the two parties. (Photo: Zarni Mann / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON—Two leading political parties in west Burma's Arakan State have agreed to unite as one party, the Arakan National Party (ANP). The Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), which won 34 seats in Parliament in 2010, plans to merge with the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD), a popular party which re-registered last year after being outlawed by the former military regime, party leaders announced on Monday. "We have long been enthusiastic about uniting," ALD deputy chief Kyaw Myint said at a press conference in Rangoon, Burma's biggest city. "This agreement will be remembered in history, as we abandon our mother parties and unite as one for the entire Rakhine people," he said, referring to the Arakan ethnic minority group which is also known as Rakhine. Officials from both parties said they planned to form a temporary committee to register the new party, the ANP, and to discuss its regulations. "We are planning to submit the registration [application] in the first week of September," Kyaw Myint said. "Once registered, we will abolish our mother parties. We plan to hold a party conference within seven months of being acknowledged [by the electoral commission], and we will democratically elect the party leaders and central committee members." The ALD formed in the late 1980s and won third place during the 1990 general elections, which were annulled by the former military government. The party was subsequently outlawed by the junta, but re-registered in 2012 under Burma's nominally civilian government. Along with several other leading ethnic parties, the ALD boycotted the 2010 general elections to demand the release of all political prisoners and a review of the 2008 military-backed Constitution. "The ALD is our elder, for they have been fighting for the Rakhine people since 1988," said RNDP president Aye Maung. "RNDP has dreamed of uniting the Rakhine people and achieving national unity. Finally, we can now realize our dream." Aye Maung said the new party would push to amend the 2008 Constitution and to create a federal system that many ethnic minority groups have long demanded. "Rewriting the 2008 Constitution is vital," he said. "It [the Constitution] is unfair, preventing ethnic parties from governing their own states with their own rules, so that nothing is different from the [former] regime. This is one reason why states such as Rakhine, Chin and Karen are underdeveloped." He urged other ethnic parties to unite, push for equality and promote national reconciliation. The decision to create the ANP follows the merging of two ethnic Chin parties last month. Earlier this month, 15 ethnic parties from around the country also announced that they would form a single party, the Federal Union Party (FUP), in preparation for upcoming polls in 2015. The RNDP was one of those parties. When asked about plans to form the FUP at the press conference on Monday, an RNDP spokesperson said that although the RNDP and ALD wanted to merge, they would need to wait for approval from the country's electoral commission, and approval was not guaranteed.

Burma through the Looking Glass Posted: 17 Jun 2013 05:24 AM PDT US President Barack Obama shakes hands with Burma's President Thein Sein in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on May 20, 2013. (Photo: Reuters / Larry Downing) When Burma made the transition to quasi-civilian rule two years ago, most observers were skeptical. Would the new military-backed government really bring reform, they asked, or would it just be the same old regime in a slightly different guise? Well, the government of President Thein Sein has proven all the doubters wrong. The leopard has not only changed its spots—it has also sprouted feathers and learned how to quack. Indeed, it is getting more difficult with each passing day to know what manner of beast this new government is, and even harder to know what to make of almost everyone in any way related to Burma's "great transition." The most dramatic change, of course, has been in the image of the president himself. Formerly the figurehead prime minister of a reviled military regime, he has gone from being seen as a mere puppet of his higher-ups to becoming, at least in the eyes of some, a great agent of change. The finishing touch to Thein Sein's extreme makeover came on April 22, when he was awarded the International Crisis Group's "In Pursuit of Peace Award." And so, after decades as one of Burma's reptilian men in green, it seems he is now a full-fledged dove, fit to receive invitations from Washington and other Western capitals. But Thein Sein is not alone in the shape-shifting game. Khin Nyunt, another once-feared former general who fell from grace nearly a decade ago, has been back in the news recently with the opening of his own art gallery and coffee shop. Think about this for a moment: The ex-Military Intelligence chief, who almost single-handedly created Burma's police state, is now in the business of selling paintings and serving lattes. Where else but in the magical land of the new Burma could a man whose name once sent shivers up people's spines pass himself off as a genteel barista and patron of the arts? But the vogue for abrupt career shifts is not confined to Burma's former military strongmen; even foreigners have been affected by the euphoria over the opening of Southeast Asia's last frontier. In February, Kurt Campbell, the former US secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, packed in his academic and diplomatic career to found The Asia Group, LLC, an investment group that offers advice on how to make a bundle in the world's fastest growing region. Among his first assignments: lobbying for an American consortium keen to win a contract to upgrade Rangoon's international airport. Writing about Burma's potential for the Financial Times blog, Campbell could barely contain himself: "It's damn exciting," wrote the man who at one time acted as the chief negotiator between Burma's military regime and the democratic opposition. For the most part, however, Burma-mania has had its greatest transformative effect on the country's citizens, particularly those once held up as paragons of social and political virtue. The latest wave of anti-Muslim violence that began in Meikhtila in March has claimed many casualties, not the least being the reputation of Burma's monks. It was not so long ago that the world watched in awe as Buddhist monks resisted the military's might armed with nothing more than the Metta Sutta, the Buddha's discourse on loving-kindness. These days, however, they are more likely to be seen as ringleaders of nasty pogroms that aim to rid cities, towns and villages of their Muslim inhabitants. The metamorphosis of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been even more shocking for many, especially those who saw her as the sainted savior of her nation. Once faulted for being too rigidly principled, her support for the controversial Letpadaung copper mine, a Chinese-backed project opposed by local villagers, has recast her as an über-pragmatist, prepared to do anything that will help pave the way to power. The greatest hurdle to the Nobel Peace Prize winner's quest for the ultimate prize—Burma's presidency—is the 2008 Constitution, which was designed to keep her out of the country's highest office by banning anyone with family ties to any other nation from serving as chief executive. Changing this—or any other—provision in the national charter is virtually impossible, because of a requirement that all amendments must have more than 75-percent support in Parliament. The catch, of course, is that the military holds 25 percent of the seats, giving it the ultimate say in what stays and what changes. But this hasn't prevented Aung San Suu Kyi from seeking allies in her bid to undo the former junta's carefully laid plans to prevent her from becoming Burma's leader after the next election in 2015. But to stand any chance of success, she will need the backing of the ruling party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which holds the lion's share of seats thanks to the rigged 2010 election. Not so long ago, any cooperation between the USDP and the National League for Democracy (NLD) leader would have been unthinkable. After all, 10 years ago, thugs from the Union Solidarity and Development Association, an earlier incarnation of the USDP, carried out one of the worst political massacres in Burma's modern history, slaughtering scores of NLD supporters in an attack on Aung San Suu Kyi's entourage near Depayin, Sagaing Division, on May 30, 2003. But none of that seems to matter today. "If they really want to change the Constitution, there's no reason not to fully co-operate with them. All together we can co-operate. The USDP made a proposal to organize the committee to amend the Constitution. We did support that proposal," said the opposition leader who would be president. These are strange days, indeed. While there's no telling how all of this will turn out, one thing seems sure: Whatever you think you know about Burma today will almost certainly be proven untrue tomorrow.

Respected Mon Leader Nai Rotsa Dead at 67 Posted: 17 Jun 2013 04:57 AM PDT Nai Rotsa, the joint chairman of the New Mon State Party (NMSP), speaks outside the NMSP headquarters in Mon State in 2011. (Photo: Monnews.org) Nai Rotsa, the joint chairman of the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and a key architect of the ethnic rebel group's landmark ceasefire agreement with the government, passed away on Saturday evening at the age of 67. He is survived by his wife Mi Tanaing Bloi, four daughters and one son. His father Nai Maung Maung and mother Mi Paw Sein raised Nai Rotsa in the village of Kawpehtaw, in Mudon Township. He was one of five children born into the farming family, but a political calling would see him leave that life behind to one day take the reins of one of the armed ethnic groups fighting for self-determination in Burma. Nai Rotsa joined the NMSP in 1970 and became a member of its central committee in 1971. In 1975, he was appointed as a party executive and by 2003, he was NMSP's deputy joint chairman. He ascended to the joint chairmanship in 2006. Nai Rotsa succumbed to cancer over the weekend, passing away at a Thai hospital in Kanchanaburi Province about a month after receiving treatment in Bangkok. News of his passing brought grief to colleagues and many others who regarded the leader as a capable representative of the Mon people's aspirations. Nai Tala Nyi, who is a member of the NMSP executive committee, told The Irrawaddy that the party was honoring Nai Rotsa with a funeral ceremony that began on Sunday and will conclude on Friday. The ceremony is being held in the village of Palanjapan, near Three Pagodas Pass on the Thai-Burmese border. "It is sad for all of our Mon and for our party as well," Nai Tala Nyi said. "He was a good leader for all of us." Tall and slender, Nai Rotsa led an ordinary life, colleagues said, never elevating himself above the average person. In carrying out party duties and when traveling, he refused to have body guards accompany him for his safety. He would marry Mi Tanaing Bloi, who was a soldier in the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA) at the time. He was a leading voice during the NMSP's peace talks with the government, which saw the signing of a ceasefire agreement between the two sides in February 2012. Respected for his sharp insight and diplomatic approach to difficult matters, the NMSP chairman built alliances with friend and party foe alike. Nai Rotsa came to believe that armed struggle was only one way to fight for the rights of the ethnic Mon people, according to Nai Tin Hla, who used to be his personal assistance. "When we first met the Burmese government for peace talks, he taught us how to guess character, read [negotiators'] intentions, and told us to listen to them speak first, and then come back at them with our desires when we talk," Nai Tin Hla recalled. "He told us that after listening carefully to what they had to say, we could talk and seek what we wanted." Nai Tin Hla, who is also a former NMSP central committee member, described him as "the type of leader who could speak smoothly and take what he wanted to get, but he never showed his anger to others." He was a man who once believed in armed struggle to win self-determination for the Mon people, according to Nai Tin Hla. But when party discussions turned to a possible ceasefire deal, he urged soldiers to give dialogue a chance. "I believed in armed struggle," Nai Tin Hla quoted the NMSP chairman as saying. "But, let's talk to them [the government] first, as it offered opportunity. In the theory of revolution, if we do not need to have bloodshed to get our rights, this will be great. But, if we do not get our rights from the peace talks, let's take up our armed struggle again to fight for our rights." Nai Rotsa was a leader who faced little opposition from within his party, Nai Tin Hla said, a deft negotiator of both the internal and external politics that came with his leadership post. "He would tell funny jokes sometimes when we had meetings. His jokes would make people laugh and this helped dissipate any anger toward him during meetings," Nai Tin Hla said. "It was his talent. "I wanted to cry when I heard about his death because I had a lot of respect for his leadership role and he was my close friend. Without him, our Mon have lost many things, especially in politics," Nai Tin Hla added. Soldiers would often visit his home and were happily received by the Mon leader, who dispensed advice and addressed problems as best he could. The NMSP signed a ceasefire with the government on Feb. 1, 2012, but has called for greater political dialogue since then. On Saturday, those calls lost an influential voice.

Head to Head With a Burmese Hardliner Posted: 17 Jun 2013 02:45 AM PDT Burma's President Thein Sein, left, talks with Aung Thaung, center, and Rangoon's former mayor Aung Thein Lin in Mandalay in 2010. Aung Thaung is a former general and industry minister turned lawmaker with close connections to the president and former dictator Than Shwe. (Photo: The Associated Press) Aung Thaung is a Burmese hardliner with major connections. A former military general and minister of industry under Burma's old military junta, he is among the country's wealthiest businessmen and a Parliamentarian, and he has close ties to former dictator Sr-Gen Than Shwe, who he met while serving in the Burma Army. The two men reportedly ate breakfast together when the military was still in power. Despite his political connections, or perhaps as a result of these connections, Aung Thaung has not escaped negative press. Under the former regime, he was accused of involvement in attacks against opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) party. In the most famous scandal, the 2003 Depayin affair, members from the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), now the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), attacked a motorcade of the democracy icon and her followers, leaving about 70 people dead. A group of thugs, criminals and ex-convicts known as Swan Arshin were thought to be involved. Today, Aung Thaung is known as a hardliner in Parliament, where he represents the military-backed USDP. He says he promotes Burma's transition to democracy, but the negative press has continued. Earlier this month, The Straits Times newspaper of Singapore published a report which hinted at his possible connection to recent anti-Muslim riots in the country—including in Shan State's Lashio town and Mandalay Division's Meikhtila town. The report described the emergence of a new Buddhist military known as the "Taung Tha army," and noted that Taung Tha is a town in Mandalay Division "which happens to be home to the notoriously hardline Aung Thaung." In a rare, exclusive interview, The Irrawaddy met Aung Thaung and asked some tough questions about allegations of his involvement in recent anti-Muslim unrest; his relations with the controversial nationalist monk U Wirathu, who is at the helm of the 969 movement to shun Muslim businesses; and his close relationship with Burma's reformist President Thein Sein. Question: The Straits Times describes the current religious and racial conflict in Burma as a reflection of the handiwork of Taung Tha groups, and Taung Tha is your hometown. The article also says you have connections with members of Swan Arshin who attacked monks after the [2007 pro-democracy] Saffron Revolution and who were part of the Depayin plot. Will you comment on these allegations? Answer: It's nonsense. The article makes it sound like I don't want our country to continue along the path to democracy. We have already transitioned from a military junta to a democracy because we're serious about developing this country. And we'll keep going. … I presume that whoever offered this description [in the article] did so in order to tarnish our dignity. You can investigate as you wish. If their allegations were found to be true, even the tiniest bit true, they could say whatever they wanted about us. But if the situation was not as they described, would they be happy to be prosecuted? The incidents in Meikhtila and Lashio were described poorly. Likewise, the Depayin issue. It was described without firm evidence. I'm not sure what they were talking about. Last month, I wasn't able to go to the regional states. I wasn't able to talk with anyone or direct anyone. You can go to Taung Tha and ask anyone you meet. I also have my own personal problems—I'm getting old too, and my wife, who has been suffering from cancer for four years, has been in very bad condition. Q: It is widely accepted that Swan Arshin is linked to the current unrest. It has also been written that the incidents in Lashio and Meikhtila were systematically planned. What do you say of this? A: I have never formed an organization, even in the days of the military regime. I didn't form the USDA. And I don't have the right to form any association. As I am from the USDP, I am involved in political affairs, and I won't behave in a way that would cause the public to misunderstand me or look down on me. Q: You've been criticized for shaking hands with U Wirathu, who was recently released from prison. [The monk who now leads the 969 movement was jailed about a decade ago for inciting religious unrest]. What are your thoughts on that? A: Masoeyein is a monastery [in Mandalay] that I often visit. He [U Wirathu] is from Masoeyein. When I went there, U Wirathu allowed us to meet him. I was with about 25 members of the USDP, and around 50 monks were standing in my vicinity. I just listened to U Wirathu and then I left. A monk like U Wirathu won't listen to what I say, so I just had to say, "Yes, abbot," and leave without saying anything to him. Q: According to the Straits Times, U Wirathu gave an anti-Muslim speech about 50 kilometers from Lashio just before violence in Lashio broke out. Can you comment on this connection? A: I have only met and spoken to the abbot once, and that meeting only lasted about 20 or 25 minutes. I haven't had any later contact with him. So I don't know anything about the allegations in the article, that he was just 50 kilometers from Lashio. Q: Political analysts have said that if President Thein Sein cannot tame those who are pro-violence, his political reputation will gradually decline. What do you think of Thein Sein's attempts to control the violence? A: Those things have been written to make the situation worse. U Thein Sein is our president, and I'm personally very close to him. He is my colleague as well. He is a very honest man, and he was also my comrade when we were on the frontlines [in the Burma Army]. Despite the fact that he is not healthy, he is doing a good job with everything. [The president is known to have a heart condition]. However, there may have been some mistakes because he tends to administer and direct others—he doesn't manage everything personally. What he does is the task of our party. I need to support that. In Parliament, too, I am responsible for promoting democracy and stopping actions that turn back to the old ways. I have nothing to say so far regarding his management. Since he has a lot to do, some of his management may seem weak. That's understandable. Q: Before the violence, it was widely heard, even in Parliament, that the military's role [in politics] should be reduced. Committees were formed to amend the Constitution [which guarantees 25 percent of Parliament seats to the military]. Then violence broke out. Some critics say the violence could hint at another possible military coup or a bid to promote the role the military. A: The military has no desire to take back power. It would be extremely foolish if the military wanted to take back power. Even if the situation was favorable, there shouldn't be another military coup d'état. The military should help—it must help the state achieve its goal of democracy. I presume the commander-in-chief has the same view about helping the state. I don't think we would ever dream of seizing power again. The military only stands to help the state.

Informal Weekend Peace Talks Held between Govt, KNU Posted: 17 Jun 2013 02:38 AM PDT President's Office Minister Aung Min, standing at left, addresses Karen National Union (KNU) delegates in Rangoon during a meeting over the weekend. (Photo: KNU). Two separate delegations from the Karen National Union (KNU) have met with Burmese officials including Aung Min, a senior minister and key peace negotiator from the President's Office, to informally discuss establishing a "code of conduct" with the ethnic Karen rebels and tentative plans for a "nationwide political dialogue." Both of the KNU delegations—a technical team led by Saw Tar Do Moo and a high-level group led by KNU chairman Gen Mutu Say Poe—met over the weekend with Aung Min and members of the government-affiliated Myanmar Peace Center (MPC). Hla Maung Shwe, a leading member of the MPC, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that Saw Tar Do Moo's delegation held talks with Burmese military officials including Lt-Gen Thet Naing Win, the minister of border affairs, to discuss a code of conduct for the ceasefire agreement reached by the two sides last year. "There were talks for two days regarding the code of conduct. Respective military leaders including Lt-Gen Thet Naing Win also attended the meeting," Hla Maung Shwe said. The MPC leader said the meeting was positive, but refused to elaborate on details of the military affairs talks between the KNU technical team and Burmese military officials, as he was not authorized to comment on the matter. Hla Maung Shwe added that the high-level KNU delegation, led by Mutu Say Poe, also held talks with Aung Min, but the two sides released no official statement on the meeting because it was an informal discussion. KNU joint secretary Mahn Mahn confirmed that the KNU delegations discussed a code of conduct, but reached no binding agreement with the government and were not authorized to do so, given the informal nature of the meeting. However, Hla Maung Shwe said that what Aung Min told the KNU delegations was in line with a plan that President Thein Sein laid out in discussions with Lt-Gen Yawd Serk, the head of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), during their meeting in Naypyidaw last week. Thein Sein told Yawd Serk of the Shan rebel group that the government was trying to achieve ceasefire agreements with all of Burma's ethnic groups. Soon after, the government hopes that a "framework" and "timeframe" for a nationwide political dialogue can be established, according to Hla Maung Shwe. That would include a government invitation to all ethnic groups to attend a dialogue in Burma. However, before that can occur, the government aims to achieve comprehensive ceasefire agreements with all ethnic armed groups, notably the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and its militant wing, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). The government's 17-year ceasefire agreement with the KIO-KIA broke down in 2011. On Saturday evening, there was also a dinner attended by leaders from the KNU and RCSS, as well as Rangoon-based Shan political parties and members of the MPC. Government officials including Aung Min and Minister Soe Thane, also from the President's Office, were also present at the dinner. The KNU delegations left separately for Rangoon on Friday. Other KNU leaders such as Tamla Thaw, Roger Khin, Shwe Maung and Tu Tu Lay also attended the meetings. The two KNU delegations on Monday returned to Thailand, where they are based. Ahead of their trip, the KNU released a statement saying its technical team planned to discuss establishing a code of conduct concerning the ceasefire with a Burmese technical team. The KNU signed a ceasefire agreement with the government on Jan. 12, 2012.

15 Ethnic Parties to Unite ahead of 2015 Elections Posted: 17 Jun 2013 12:44 AM PDT A Burmese election official displays a ballot paper during the parliamentary by-elections on April 1, 2012. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) TAUNGGYI, Shan State — Fifteen of Burma's ethnic political parties, many of which contested the 2010 elections, will form a single party in preparation for upcoming polls in 2015, according to sources from several of the allied parties. At a meeting last week held in Taunggyi, the capital of Shan State, representatives from the ethnic parties agreed to establish the Federal Union Party (FUP), as tentatively named by the participants. The ethnic groups also discussed issues surrounding the formation of a genuine democratic federal union in Burma, as well as sections 17/1 and 17/2 of the Unlawful Association Act. The act was passed in 1908 to take action against any group or individual connected with insurgents. Section 17/1 is for persons involved with or supporting illegal groups, while Section 17/2 is for those who lead illegal organizations. "We mainly discussed the FUP, which will be a clone for our 15 ethnic brotherhood parties," Pu Zo Zam, the chairman of Chin National Party (CNP), told The Irrawaddy. "We will submit the outcomes of this meeting to the Parliament." The FUP will contest the country's next general election, to be held in 2015, he added. Pu Zo Zam said the ethnic parties acknowledged that their ability to win at the polls was limited by the electoral strength of the nation's two biggest parties, the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD). The formation of the FUP aims to better the 15 parties' odds in regions where the ethnic political groups compete, he added. Sai Boe Aung from the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) echoed the CNP chairman, saying the establishment of the FUP was intended to protect ethnic groups' rights. "Our discussion focused on the formation of FUP in order for ethnic people not to suffer if proportional representation is chosen as the practice for the 2015 election," he said, adding that the FUP would contest the polls in all seven of Burma's states as well as its seven divisions. Khine Kaung San, an executive from the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), told The Irrawaddy that his party would reject proportional representation, arguing that Burma's fledgling democracy was not mature enough for such a system, risking the disintegration of the union if a proportional approach to elections were used. The two-day meeting was held at the SNDP's main office in Taunggyi, with representatives from 15 ethnic parties, including the Kayan National Party (KNP); All Mon Region Democracy Party (AMRDP); Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP); Phalon Sawaw Democratic Party (PSDP); Chin National Party (CNP); Inn National Progressive Party (INPP); Wa Democratic Party (WDP); Pa-O National Organization (PNO); Taaung (Palaung) National Party (PNP); and the Wa National Unity Party (WNUP).

Monks’ Conference Calls for Peace, Drops Interfaith Marriage Restrictions Plan Posted: 17 Jun 2013 12:41 AM PDT Buddhist monk U Dhammapiya speaks during a press conference on Thursday. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) HMAWBI Township — A meeting of more than 200 Burmese Buddhist monks on how to solve deadly communal conflicts that have pitted majority Buddhists against Muslims declared on Friday they seek peace and accused the media of tarnishing their religion’s image. A statement released at the end of the two-day meeting did not mention a prominent Buddhist monk’s proposal that a law be enacted to regulate inter-religious marriages, particularly specifying that anyone who marries a Buddhist woman must convert to Buddhism. The monk U Wirathu, who is known for his anti-Muslim sermons, told reporters on Thursday on the sidelines of the conference that he would propose the legislation to parliament. Conference spokesman U Dhammapiya, another monk, said the proposal was not directly related to the meeting. "The draft law was proposed at the wrong place and caused confusion," he told The Associated Press. The remarks had fueled unease that Buddhist monks are promoting religious intolerance. U Wirathu is a key leader of "969," an ultra-nationalist movement of monks that preaches that the country’s small Muslim minority threatens racial purity and national security. The conflict has threatened to undermine the political and economic reforms undertaken by President Thein Sein, who came to power in 2011 after almost five decades of repressive military rule. Sectarian violence began in western Arakan State last year, when hundreds died in clashes between Buddhist and Muslims that drove about 140,000 people, mostly Muslims, from their homes. The violence had seemed confined to that region, but in late March, similar Buddhist-led violence swept the town of Meikhtila in central Burma, killing at least 43 people. Several other towns in central Burma experienced less deadly violence, mostly involving the torching of Muslim businesses and mosques. Regarding the violence, U Dhammapiya said that anyone who broke the law should be dealt with according to the law. "We have to ascertain if the monks who took part in the violence were fake or genuine monks," he said. "It has to be investigated and there should be rule of law to stop the violence." News reports suggested that some monks were armed and encouraged the bloodletting. Participants in the meeting, held at a monastery in Hmawbi, about 32 kilometers (20 miles) from Rangoon, complained that the media had presented a distorted view of Buddhism’s role in the violence. U Dhammapiya told reporters on Thursday that "We are just requesting you to write the news with the right information." "There are many media that report ethically. But there are some which get backing from some sort of organizations," he said, without elaborating. "We feel that it’s not balanced."

Export Slowdown Threatens Emerging Asia’s Economic Boom Posted: 17 Jun 2013 12:39 AM PDT A construction site for a new highway at Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta March 28, 2013. Indonesia is seeking US $9 billion from European investors to upgrade its decrepit infrastructure. (Photo: Reuters) KUALA LUMPUR — A deepening slump in exports is sending tremors through Asia, threatening to undermine some booming emerging economies that have surged ahead in recent years on a heady combination of easy credit, buoyant consumer demand and strong domestic investment. Export growth throughout Asia has sagged in recent months, hit by slackening demand from the United States, Europe and China and by slumping commodity prices. Leading indicators are also pointing to weaker factory activity in the coming months. The slowdown is being felt most keenly by Southeast Asian countries whose strong domestic economies are sucking in imports more rapidly and which now face sharp deteriorations in their trade balances that could spook investors. Heavy stock market and currency falls in the region this week have underlined the risks as investors grow nervous that the US Federal Reserve may taper its quantitative easing (QE) policy that has fuelled a surge of credit in Southeast Asia. “For countries like Indonesia, and to a certain extent Malaysia, you’ve had this perfect storm of weak external demand, weak commodity prices, and strong domestic demand,” said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, director of Asian Economic Research at Credit Suisse in Singapore. “One doesn’t want to see it go too far. We don’t want these countries running into huge, unsustainable deficits because inevitably we’ll run into Asian financial crisis type stories.” Malaysia’s trade surplus fell to its lowest level in April since the 1997 crisis with a surprise 3.3 percent year-on-year fall in exports announced last week. The country could soon run its first trade deficit in 16 years. Exports from the Philippines, which already runs a trade deficit and last month reported the fastest annual economic growth in Asia of 7.8 percent, plunged 12.8 percent in April from a year earlier. Indonesia reported a trade deficit in April after exports contracted for a 13th straight month. Thai exports have slowed, contributing to a record trade deficit in January. Underlining broader Asian trade weakness, China posted on Saturday its lowest export growth in almost a year in May. China’s economy has been a major source of export demand for other Asian nations, but that is expected to fade as the world’s second-largest economy begins shifting to a slower growth path. While the US economy is showing signs of regaining traction, much of Europe remains mired in recession and China is showing worrisome signs of stumbling. “It’s going to be the new reality for Asia. Exports will not be as exciting as they used to be,” said Euben Paracuelles, Southeast Asia economist at Nomura in Singapore. Shrinking factory orders also point to a loss of momentum for economies whose fortunes are closely linked to China, such as Taiwan and Hong Kong. Some officials, however, played down the slowing exports, saying it did not signal a structural weakness or a persistent trend. “What I see is a large drawdown in existing inventories on the part of our trading partners,” said Diwa Guinigundo, the deputy governor of the Philippine central bank. “…It’s a matter of time before we see a more definitive widespread recovery of global growth and in turn, exports.” Too Much of A Good Thing? Robust domestic demand has been a source of strength for Southeast Asia’s emerging economies in recent years as growing spending by the middle class and a rise in infrastructure investment has reduced their traditional export dependence. They are in a far healthier state than in 1997, having built up hefty foreign exchange reserves, reduced external debt and gained credit upgrades through improved public finances. But worsening current account balances could still be a problem at a time when foreign funds are reducing exposure to risk and seeking safer havens. One concern in Southeast Asia is a surge in household debt in recent years. Philippine and Indonesian banks have been expanding consumer lending at an annual pace of around 20 percent, for example. “There are certainly dark clouds hanging over a number of countries,” said Jayant Menon, a senior economist at the Asian Development Bank. “This is not talked about much but if you get a huge deterioration in capital flows, high levels of household debt could really bite.” Nomura’s Paracuelles said Southeast Asian governments and central banks would need to respond with policy changes in coming months, tightening fiscal policy where possible and raising interest rates to protect currencies and dampen frothy domestic conditions. The first such response came late on Tuesday when Indonesia’s central bank raised overnight interest rates to combat heavy selling pressure on the Indonesian rupiah. Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, looks the most vulnerable to a worsening external position, economists say, due to its dependence on commodities and slow progress on reforms. Credit Suisse said on Wednesday it was downgrading its investment growth forecast for Indonesia this year to 5 percent from 8.6 percent, citing a sharp slowdown in capital growth. While the slowdown should reduce overheating pressures, it said Indonesia could still struggle to fund a current account shortfall due to weak commodity prices and lingering obstacles to foreign investment in key sectors such as mining. “A lot of Indonesian companies use profits from commodities to invest in other parts of the economy,” said Prior-Wandesforde. “The weakness in commodities could spill over into consumer spending.”

Burma is due to approve a new law that would establish the Central Bank as an independent body. Posted: 16 Jun 2013 11:02 PM PDT

Arakan State’s two main political parties, the RNDP and the ALD, are planning to merge. Posted: 16 Jun 2013 11:01 PM PDT

167 Burmese nationals return to Burma from Malaysia after attacks on migrant workers there Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:59 PM PDT

Foreign tenders will be accepted for a ‘megacity’ project planned for northern Rangoon Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:58 PM PDT

Law to Establish Independent Central Bank Due Soon Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:57 PM PDT Burma's Parliament is due to approve a new law next month that would establish the Central Bank as an independent body that determines monetary policy, Eleven Media reports. Economists said Burma needs the law and fiscal experts to develop a sound monetary policy that supports economic development. "It's important that the Central Bank has its own policy, as the government has its own financial policy. So we need the new law, policy and skilled workers, which are expected to come in a year or so," said Dr Zaw Oo, a local economist. Burma's past military regime sought to directly influence the Central Bank and its policies.

Two Arakan Political Parties Discuss Merger Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:57 PM PDT Two ethnic political parties in Arakan State, the Rakhine National Development Party (RNDP) and the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD), are planning to merge, Arakan news outlet Narinajara reports. Six delegates from each party were reportedly due to meet in Rangoon this past weekend to discuss the details of the merger, which would create one single, dominant Arakan nationalist party in the state. "The initiative to combine the parties has been supported by the members of both the political parties. Hence we expect a satisfactory outcome," ALD president Aye Tha Aung was quoted as saying.

167 Migrant Workers in Malaysia Return to Burma Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:56 PM PDT In the wake of attacks on Burmese migrants in Malaysia, 167 Burmese nationals returned to Burma from Kuala Lumpur on Saturday, Eleven News reported. The returning workers said they had left Malaysia in fear after several of their countrymen—reports on the number have ranged from three to six—were killed in the neighboring Southeast Asian nation, with the violence being linked to recent unrest between Buddhists and Muslims in Burma. For some among the 167, their return was aided by the government and Burmese airlines that last week offered reduced airfares for those seeking to return to Burma.

Burma to Take Foreign Tenders on Rangoon ‘Megacity’ Project Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:56 PM PDT Foreign tenders will be accepted for the "megacity" project planned for northern Rangoon, according to AAP. "These tenders will be for the construction of buildings such as hotels, shopping malls and housing projects in Mayangone Township within three years," the Australian news outlet quoted an anonymous city official as saying. The project is part of the Greater Rangoon Strategic Development Plan, which aims to help Rangoon, with a current population of about 5 million, grow to 10 million people by 2040. The plan includes building new roads, railways and an airport, and the development of green zones and housing projects.

Thailand’s Boom: To the Northeast, the Spoils Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:53 PM PDT Workers walk at the 168 Platinum mall building site in Udon Thani in northeastern Thailand on April 9, 2013. (Photo: Reuters / Paul Carsten) UDON THANI, Thailand — Steel girders jut from the low skyline of the Thai city of Udon Thani near the Laos border as workers lay cement for a new shopping mall, one of many illustrating a boom in the Thai economy beyond the bright lights of Bangkok. The malls, factories and construction sites in Thailand's northeast are emerging alongside its farms as a potent economic fuel in one of Asia's top emerging markets. Growth in Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy, has begun to slow, but the economy of the northeast is in the grip of a boom. The economic renaissance of "Isaan," Thailand's poorest and most populous region, has coincided with expansionary policies—from wage increases to farm subsidies—that are enriching an area at the heart of a "red shirt" protest movement that backed Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in a 2011 election. As a new middle class emerges, investors and companies are taking note. CLSA emerging markets guru Chris Wood cites the region in explaining long-term bets on Thailand. "There is a macroeconomic ramping up of the northeast," he said. The potential may never be realized if a crucial 2.2 trillion baht ($71 billion) infrastructure program becomes a casualty of the feuding between Yingluck's ruling Puea Thai Party and its opponents. But if the plan went ahead, as is generally expected, it would change the entire economic structure of the northeast, said Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays Capital. "It's the next entry point for investors and consumers—if they link it up to China, it becomes the entry point to Thailand, not Bangkok," he said. "But it's been difficult for the bureaucracy to execute programs because they don't know who will be in power in a year or two." Economic growth in the region reached 40 percent from 2007 to 2011, against 23 percent for the country and just 17 percent for greater Bangkok. Monthly household income rose 40 percent between 2007 and 2011, the biggest jump of any Thai region. Interviews with businessmen and investment data suggest the trend is continuing. The number of private investment projects in the northeast rose 49 percent in 2012 from the previous year, with the total amount invested more than doubling to $2.3 billion, according to the Bank of Thailand. Much of it is concentrated in property—from high-rise condominiums to town houses and shopping plazas. "The northeast has a large population, a dense population, so the income is big," said Naris Cheyklin, chief financial officer of Central Pattana Pcl, referring to the one-third of Thailand's 68 million people who live there. In April, Central Pattana opened a 2.75 billion baht ($88.7 million) mall in Ubon Ratchathani, near the southern tip of Laos, their third in the region. Politically Driven Boom Politics explains part of what is going on. Yingluck's government brought in a nationwide minimum wage of 300 baht ($10) a day in January. In some Isaan provinces, that was an increase of 35 percent, among the biggest gains in the country, on top of a nationwide 40 percent rise in April 2012. Many workers, such as those building the 168 Platinum Mall in Udon Thani, are happy to return to the northeast for wages that are now on a par with Bangkok's. Isaan's "red shirts" are among the staunchest supporters of Yingluck's brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup but influences policy from self-imposed exile in Dubai. While in power from 2001, his populist policies—from virtually free healthcare to low-interest loans to the rural poor—made him a hero in Isaan. The red shirts formed the core of a movement that paralyzed Bangkok in April-May 2010 in protest at the government of then Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the forces that ousted Thaksin—the traditional Bangkok elite including top generals, royal advisers, business leaders and old-money families. Those protests were put down with force, but the red shirts got their revenge in the 2011 election and now see the rewards. "A lot of the boom is upcountry, and that is politically driven, partly, because that's where Thaksin's supporters are," said Wood at CLSA. The poverty rate in Thailand fell to 13 percent of the population in 2011 from 58 percent in 1990, according to the World Bank, but per capita gross domestic product in Isaan in 2011 was still less than an eighth of that of Bangkok at $1,600 a year, according to the state planning agency, the NESDB. That is changing. Government policies have pushed up purchasing power by subsidizing agricultural products such as rice, tapioca and rubber. Under Yingluck's government, farmers have been paid 15,000 baht per ton of unmilled rice, a 50 percent premium over market prices, according to exporters. "During the Thaksin and Yingluck era, a lot has been given to Isaan, and the amount of money being poured into the region is significantly more than previous governments spent," said Ittiphol Treewatanasuwan, mayor of Udon Thani, once a US Air Force base for anti-communist operations in Southeast Asia. Lives are being transformed. Panjaporn Phatanapitoon, general manager of the 168 Platinum Mall, said people in the northeast were now better educated, attitudes were evolving fast and urbanization would come much more quickly than in Bangkok. Regional Investment The 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin caused years of unrest, but political calm has returned since Yingluck's election win. "When we change the politicians, they change the policy. If there are more changes to these policies, it will damage the economy," said Uthai Uthaisangsuk, a senior vice president at property developer Sansiri Pcl. Sansiri is developing two $127 million condominium projects in Khon Kaen, 380 km northeast of Bangkok, in 2013 and plans a third for $35 million in 2014. "At least five years and then we'll get something done," Uthai said, highlighting the need for a high-speed train and further infrastructure. Now such plans are in hand, given impetus by floods that devastated the industrial central region, near Bangkok, in late 2011. "Logistics providers and consumer products are moving upcountry because of the floods," said Patan Somburanasin, general manager of TPARK, a logistics company and subsidiary of TICON Industrial Connection Pcl, which is investing up to 2 billion baht in a 79-acre logistics park in the northeastern city of Khon Kaen. Isaan should also profit as factories and distribution centers move in ahead of an EU-style Asean Economic Community (AEC) planned by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) from late 2015 or 2016. The AEC's East-West corridor, a motorway and infrastructure route for trade, will stretch from Vietnam's Danang port through Laos, Thailand and Burma to the Andaman Sea, cutting through the center of the northeast and its commercial hub of Khon Kaen. That will support Thailand's ambitions to position itself as a gateway to China via road and rail links through Laos, itself seeing dramatic economic change. The infrastructure program and the urbanization it will foster, if the plan goes ahead, will support Thai growth into the future, Credit Suisse said in a report, raising its estimate of trend GDP growth in 2014 to 2018 to between 4.5 and 5.0 percent from 4.2 percent. No wonder, then, that Thai manufacturers such as CP All Pcl, Thai Beverage Pcl and Siam Cement , plus foreign firms with Thai plants such as Panasonic Corp, Kraft Foods Group Inc and Fraser and Neave Ltd are gravitating toward the northeast. "If you look at all the corporates, every single large cap out there, they don't talk about Bangkok any more. They talk about provincials," said Patrick Chang, head of Asean equity for BNP Paribas Investment Partners. "The sexy stuff is the provincial urbanization and the way it impacts consumption." Additional reporting by Pisit Changplayngam and Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat in Bangkok.

Bangladesh Factories’ Safety Issues Run Deep: Survey Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:51 PM PDT People watch as rescue workers continue their operations at the collapsed Rana Plaza building in Savar, 30 kilometers outside Dhaka, on April 25, 2013. (Photo: Reuters) DHAKA, Bangladesh — Bangladeshi garment factories are routinely built without consulting engineers. Many are located in commercial or residential buildings not designed to withstand the stress of heavy manufacturing. Some add illegal extra floors atop support columns too weak to hold them, according to a survey of scores of factories by an engineering university that was shown to The Associated Press. A separate inspection, by the garment industry, of 200 risky factories found that 10 percent of them were so dangerous that they were ordered to shut. The textiles minister said a third inspection, conducted by the government, could show that as many as 300 factories were unsafe. Taken together, the findings offer the first broad look at just how unsafe the working conditions are for the garment workers who produce clothing for major Western brands. And it's more bad news for the $20 billion industry that has been struggling to regain the confidence of Western retailers and consumers following a November fire at the Tazreen Fashions Ltd. factory that killed 112 people and the April collapse of the Rana Plaza building that killed 1,129 people in the worst garment industry tragedy. But the proliferation of inspections could signal the industry is finally taking its workers' safety seriously. Rana Plaza was "a wakeup call for everybody" to ensure their buildings were structurally sound, said Shahidullah Azim, vice president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association. "Earlier it was not in our minds. We never, ever thought of this," he said. But Rana Plaza wasn't the first factory building to collapse in Bangladesh. In 2005, the Spectrum sweater factory crumbled on top of workers, killing 64. That building was also found to have illegal additions. After the Rana collapse, the government and the garment manufacturers asked the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology to begin evaluating the buildings. The university formed 15 teams of two engineers each—a structural expert and a foundation expert—to conduct initial inspections, examining a building's support columns, frame, foundation and the soil it was built on, said Mujibur Rahman, head of the university's department of civil engineering. Rahman said further tests using sophisticated equipment will be completed in the coming months. AP was shown initial results of some of the inspections of about 200 buildings—many of them garment factories—on condition the factories not be identified. The owners volunteered their buildings for inspection—even paying for the surveys—a decision that suggests they are among the more safety conscious in the industry. The remainder of the country's 4,000 garment factories could be worse, said Rahman. While initial inspections showed that many of the factories appeared safe, some had problems so serious that engineers recommended they be immediately shut down. Others were told to seal off the illegal floors at the tops of their buildings and gingerly remove the heavy equipment stored there. "There were buildings that we found that were really critical and we asked them to immediately vacate those buildings," Rahman said. The engineers found that huge numbers of the factories were housed in commercial or residential buildings not designed to withstand the vibrations and heavy loads of industrial use, Rahman said. Machinery vibrations were blamed as one of the causes along with additional illegal floors as the cause of the Rana collapse. Most of the examined buildings did not have structural tests dating back to their construction, and it was "very rare" that an engineer supervised construction, Rahman said. They found a building approved for only six stories that had been expanded to 10. Support columns that were supposed to have five steel bars inside them had only two. Other columns were too small to support the structures. Some of the buildings had structural cracks that threatened their integrity. In one report, the engineers found structural cracks on two columns and a heavy power generator located on the roof, where its vibrations could threaten the building's integrity. They recommended sealing all the floors above the ground floor pending a more thorough assessment. Rahman said he told the owners it would be safer just to demolish the building and start over. A five-story factory had 30-centimeter by 30-centimeter (12-inch by-12 inch) structural columns that did not appear strong enough to handle the load. The engineers called for sealing the top floor until the building could be strengthened. Another factory building had seven stories instead of the approved five and was meant for residential use. Its 25-centimeter by 25-centimeter (10-inch by 10-inch) columns were too small and the foundation was not wide enough to anchor the building in the red Dhaka clay. The engineers recommended closing the top two stories. In other cases, the engineers called for the demolition of the illegal top floor of a seven-story building and the closure of several other buildings with structural cracks. Rahman said some owners begged him to change the recommendations, saying they had three months of back orders to fill and then could address the problems. He refused. Other owners appeared to think twice about the inspections. The engineers were initially overwhelmed with requests to examine 400 buildings. But after their work began, some owners stopped answering their phones and engineers were unable to visit half of them, Rahman said. It was not clear whether all the recommendations were being followed, but there were signs that some risky buildings were being forced into compliance. Not far from the swampy pit where Rana Plaza once stood in the Dhaka suburb of Savar, a factory was dismantling—on government orders—two illegal floors it had been adding. Industry and government officials said they were taking the results seriously and have announced a steady stream of factory closures in recent weeks. "We are very much taking care of this thing, because we know that for one or two buildings, we cannot destroy all the industry," said Azim from the garment manufacturers' group. The group set up its own engineering team and inspected 200 suspect factories in recent weeks, he said. They found violations so worrisome they shut 20 of them, he said. Some will be moved to other buildings, others will be strengthened and some will be allowed to reopen after heavy equipment is removed from upper floors, he said. It was not clear if those 20 factories overlapped with those inspected by the university. The garment association also established rules forcing factories to submit structural plans and soil test reports or risk losing their membership in the organization—and their export licenses, he said. Textiles Minister Abdul Latif Siddique said the government was conducting its own inspections and expects to close factories as well. "I think 200 to 300 factories will be vulnerable, and I think we will identify those buildings very quickly," he said. In the wake of the Rana Plaza disaster, the country was under extreme pressure from Western brands to improve safety, he said. But he also appealed to those companies to pay higher rates to cover the upgrades. "To provide security, better wages and compliance is not cheap," he said. Swedish retailer H&M, PVH, the parent company of Calvin Klein, and Inditex, which owns Zara, are among companies that signed an agreement to help finance safety improvements in Bangladesh factories. Wal-Mart and the Gap have not. Experts said the recent disasters were a product of the explosive growth of garment manufacturing here from a cottage industry into a behemoth that employs 4 million people. It began in the 1980s with small factories in residential buildings with no special fire exits, the workers sewing and cutting on the lower floors while the owner lived upstairs. When the business grew, the owner moved out and the factory expanded into the whole building. Some factories later moved into commercial space. The most successful eventually constructed their own buildings, but even that was unregulated until Bangladesh established its first statutory building code in 2006. Mubasshar Hussain, president of the Institute of Architects, Bangladesh, said 50 percent of the factories likely have problems, but all of them can be addressed within a year with a coordinated campaign to retrofit those buildings. "We have the manpower, we have the technology, we have the material. All we need is the awareness of the owner," he said, But Hussain worried that the burst of activity following the Rana Plaza collapse could dissipate. He pointed to a long-forgotten 2005 garment association report recommending close structural monitoring of factories in the wake of the collapse of the Spectrum sweater factory that killed 64 workers. Siddique, the textiles minister, said the new disaster was too horrifying to be ignored. "We are serious now, hopefully it will be better," he said. Associated Press reporter Julhas Alam contributed to this report.

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