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| Learning to share A bout low hanging fruits Posted: 12 Aug 2016 01:21 AM PDT Day Four. Friday, 5 August 2016 A person with sweet mouth but sour bottom One ought not live with such in the same house (Shan proverb) Has the peace process proceeded in strikes since the new NLD government took over? That's the question the workshop tries to answer today. First, the positive developments: · It has promised a federal democracy plus amendment of the military drawn charter · It is trying its best to include the 13 non-signatories armed movements in the upcoming Union Peace Conference, renamed Union Peace Conference (21st Century Panglong). Through the new government's efforts, the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), an alliance of 9 EAOs (some say only 7) appears to have accepted the government's invitation to attend the Framework Review meeting, due 12-13 August, in Rangoon. The 3 excluded movements (Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta-ang National Liberation Army) are negotiating with government representatives a public statement acceptable to both sides, after which they would be invited to join the UPC-21 PL. (There were reports that negotiations broke down while this report was being filed) The National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), a non UNFC group, has already accepted Naypyitaw's bid to attend the Framework Review meeting. The United Wa State Army (UWSA), regarded as the strongest non-state rebel group, is also expected to join the UPC-21 PL on 31 August , if not the framework meet.  At the same time, the workshop also points out that all these developments have come out at the expense of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) that was signed in October and ratified by the Union Parliament in December. "There was no need to bypass the NCA," one comments. "The government could have achieved the same result by simply implementing the guidelines laid out by it." According to the NCA the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM), composed of representatives of the signatories, is the highest decision making body. The Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC), that deals with military matters, and the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) that deals with political matters, which include drafting/amending the Framework for Political Dialogue, managing political dialogues and holding the UPC, are formed by it. The following are some, if not all, of the workshop's observations: · The formation of the UPC-21 PL Preparatory Committee, ostensibly to convince the non-signatories to join the process in April. "The UPDJC could have done it just as well," says one participant. · The dissolution of the UPDJC made up of 16 members each from the government, political parties and signatory EAOs, formed under (not by) the previous government, to appoint a new one headed by the State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, by the President. "The UPDJC, as well as its chair, should be appointed by the JICM, if we play by the rules," says another participant. · The 16 members from the political parties, also under the previous government, were chosen by the parties themselves, following the principle of inclusivity, as enshrined in the NCA: National League for Democracy 2 members Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) 2 members Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) 1 members Arakan National Party (ANP) 1 members United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) 1 members Nationalities Brotherhood Federation (NBR) 1 members Federal Democratic Alliance (FDA) 1 members Other Burma Proper parties 3 members Other States parties 4 members "The government now says only elected parties are eligible, despite Article 22 pointing out clearly that they must be Tayawin (legal/registered) parties," an unhappy politician had told SHAN. · "The form adopted under the previous government wasn't perfect," he continued. "Because there was little time to hold a prolonged debate. But it closely followed the principle of inclusivity." Another politician explained how the political parties bloc attending the UPC had chosen its 150 representatives quota: 92 representatives from 92 registered parties 22 representatives, one each from elected parties 16 representatives chosen to the UPDJC 8 representatives, chosen as advisors to the UPDJC 12 representatives, one from each of the 13 parties elected to the Union Parliament (the USDP decided to forgo its right) The government now says unelected parties should join the CSO Forum due to be formed in the unspecified near future. "This really is an outrage," the first politician had exploded. "The government promised it would adhere to the NCA. It's time to prove the deed goes with the words." · Last but not least, the JICM has not been called since the new government took over. "Without the JICM, everything being done is illegal," comments an EAO leader. It seems, they say, negotiating with the elected government is tougher than negotiating with the USDP government set up by the military. "The Thein Sein government had questions of legitimacy," explains an academic. "So it was forced to make allowances, such as slackening the rules on the media and the political parties and initiating negotiations with the EAOs, in order to boost up its legitimacy. But the NLD doesn't have such problems, if you overlook the fact that in most constituencies in states like Chin it had won by securing only about 20% votes (there were 12 Chin parties entering the fray)." In addition, technical problems like lack of experience, inclination for formal negotiations, and slow communication lines, both within and without, have been dogging the government's negotiations, unlike under U Thein Sein. No doubt, the government side has a lot of complaints against the EAOs too, like no longer having practically a single communication line as it did before they split into signatories and non-signatories last September.
The participants' conclusion is that, first and foremost, both sides must return to the NCA, the only bond between the two sides, without which the peace process will become dangerously anchorless. "You can look the other way once and it's no big deal, except it makes it easier to compromise next time, and soon all you'll be doing is compromising because that's how you think things are done, "Jack Bauer, the character played by Kiefer Sutherland, tells his colleague in the popular TV series, 24, on corruption. "You knew these guys I blew the whistle on. You think they were bad guys? They weren't. They were just like you and me, except they compromised once." Naturally, the next conclusion is to decide how it should be made known to the government side, ASAP. But that is another day, and another story. | ||
| Confusion reigns as union peace process is geared to restart soon Posted: 11 Aug 2016 06:33 PM PDT  Earlier, when she was meeting the UNFC, a nine ethnic armies alliance, for the first time on 17 July, she said that according to Johanthan Powell, who was deeply involved in Northern Ireland conflict, said that it had dragged on for some 300 years for the timeline to solve the problem was not attached and thoughts were entertained that given enough time the problem would be resolved. But admitted that was wrong. That was why, she stressed, the time limit is an important part in resolving the conflict. Spokesman for UNFC Khu Oo Reh, on 9 August, in response to Suu Kyi's deadline said the EAOs would need more time to prepare for common positions among the EAOs' signatories and non-signatories and mildly complained that being dragged into the peace process hastily won't be beneficial for them. He stressed that the EAOs only need a bit more time. Echoing Khu Oo Reh, Arakan National Party central committee member Oo Hla Saw recently told Radio Free Asia that even Pa-O National Organization, Pinlaung township MP Khun Maung Thaung, as chair of the Ethnic Affairs and Local Peace Committee, also a Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) member, was at lost regarding how representation of the elected MPs for the UPC would be chosen. The UPDJC is the highest organ that oversees the whole peace process, made up of the government/military, EAOs and the political parties, each with 16 members, 48 altogether. Other than that, Oo Hla Saw said it seemed the parliament has not been interested in the issue and no discussion made on it until now. The most frustrating thing was the participation quota, as this was said to be altered and still to be discussed. He pointed out that the UPC concerned the ethnic nationalities most for they are the most to suffer from the civil war ranging among their midst. Adding to the frustration is the failed attempt to make the three excluded EAOs' – Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA) - inclusion in the peace process. On 9 August, in Mong La, the government's peace negotiation team, made up of former lawmaker Thein Zaw, former Lt-Gen Khin Zaw Oo and former information minister Aung Kyi, discussed on how the groups could participate in the peace process, the NCA and the Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) review. According to Tar Bone Kyaw the negotiation was said to have been unsuccessful and that disagreement arose on the choice of wordings for the to be released public statement of the three groups. Tar Bone Kyaw said that it was hard to promise and sign the public statement using the wordings "to abandon the armed struggle", to explicitly end the conflict, but were ready to accept the formulation of "to terminate the internal civil war" to really end the armed conflict. It was agreed that both parties have agreed that the government's delegation would carry the request of the three EAOs for further deliberation on the choice of wordings to their leaders – State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing -, while the three would discuss on how to go about further with the solution among themselves. However, no further exact date has been made to meet again. Mixed and convoluted signals coming from ethnic EAOs leadership, such as Khu Oo Reh and Kwe Htoo Win of KNU futher complicate the already complex peace process. For example, regardless of Khu Oo Reh's sort of plea for more time that has fallen on deaf ears, to ready themselves in sorting out common positions among the EAOs, the Delegation for Political Negotiation (DPN) is participating in the recent Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) amendments, although not clear whether its suggestion, as non-signatory EAOs, might be considered, given it's just observer's status without decision-making power. For now, the UNFC's political position of all-inclusiveness will be tested on the eve of the shattered negotiation between the three excluded EAOs and the government peace team, recently in Mong La. And for sure, people will be closely monitoring it's move. In this respect, the worry that the forthcoming UPC will fall into the same fate as Suu Kyi's predecessor President Thein Sein is also real and that she might be residing over a conference, which is neither all-inclusive nor comprehensive like the first UPC held from January 12 to 16 of 2016. Pundits have speculated that the crucial point of discussion will be on how the group participation structure is being worked out in the amendment of the FPD, which now seems that the former NCA agreement on it will be kept intact for the time being. The present setting is seven group configuration, while the ethnic nationalities - Armed and unarmed - are for a tripartite dialogue, involving the government, parliament and military; the EAOs; and the registered political parties. To this, Kwe Htoo Win has come up with a brilliant idea that during discussion the seven group setting could be used, while in decision-making the tripartite posture would be employed. The only problem remains on how this could be implemented on a practical term. As it is, we all could only wait and see how the scenario will unfold. It might have been better to give the UNFC a bit more time; watered down the wordings so that the three excluded EAOs could participate in the peace process; and alleviate the frustration of the elected parliamentarians – and as well the non-elected political parties -, on how the peace process is to go about, including their part of responsibility and participation. But as this is not the case and the timeline of Suu Kyi is to be observed, we could only hope that things will work out positively and would pave way for a better tomorrow, made necessary by the UPC or 21stCentury Panglong Conference. |
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