Wednesday, December 24, 2014

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Vietnam’s Viettel Nears Deal to Invest $800M in Yatanaporn Teleport

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 05:05 AM PST

The Yatanarpon Teleport logo is seen in front of its office in Rangoon. Thailand's True Corp, which plants to expand in the region, is set to enter into a partnership with the state-owned company within the next two months. (Photo: Reuters)

The Yatanarpon Teleport logo is seen in front of its office in Rangoon. Thailand's True Corp, which plants to expand in the region, is set to enter into a partnership with the state-owned company within the next two months. (Photo: Reuters)

HANOI/RANGOON — Vietnam’s Viettel Global and Burma's state-backed Yatanarpon Teleport are awaiting approval for an investment of at least US $800 million to build Yatanarpon’s telecoms infrastructure, officials from both companies said on Friday.

Burma—where communications were tightly controlled by the former military junta—is one of the world’s last telecoms frontiers, with just a small minority of the 53 million population having a mobile phone.

Last month, Viettel Global, the investment arm of Vietnam’s military-run Viettel Group, announced plans to contribute $800 million to developing telecoms with an unnamed partner in Myanmar, and told Reuters on Friday it will likely announce the decision of its shareholders on Dec. 15.

An official in Hanoi with direct knowledge of the negotiations confirmed that Yatanarpon was the Burma partner.

Yan Win, a member of Yatanarpon’s board of directors, told Reuters the board had finalized talks with Viettel and was waiting for Yatanarpon’s management to approve the deal.

The total investment for the deal will rise to between $1.8 and $2 billion, said the official in Hanoi who declined to be identified because he is not authorized to speak to the media.

Viettel Global said the additional funds would be raised by its foreign partner and a joint venture, to be established by both firms, the Vietnamese company said in the plan published in November.

Aung Tha, CEO of Khine Thit Sar, a Rangoon-based company helping to upgrade the state-owned Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications (MPT), said he was aware of talks between Viettel and Yatanarpon, which has primarily been an Internet service provider until now.

"It will be tough for them to compete with the existing operators," he said. "They have no infrastructure; they will have to start from scratch."

Swedish telecoms giant Ericsson said that in 2012 less than 4 percent of the country’s population had mobile phones.

That number has risen dramatically over the past few months as Norway’s Telenor and Qatar’s Ooredoo have begun selling SIM cards after the reformist government, which took power in 2011, granted the companies telecoms licenses.

MPT, formerly the country’s sole provider, has also scaled up distribution of SIM cards and has partnered with Japanese firms KDDI Corp and Sumitomo Corp, which have said they will invest $2 billion.

Yatanarpon reportedly holds the fourth telecoms license and its chief executive told Reuters last year that it would seek at least $1 billion from investors to expand its operations.

The post Vietnam's Viettel Nears Deal to Invest $800M in Yatanaporn Teleport appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Women’s Livelihoods Undermined by Dawei SEZ: Report

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 04:55 AM PST

Representatives of the Tavoyan Women's Union at the launch of

Representatives of the Tavoyan Women's Union at the launch of "Our Lives, Not For Sale" in Rangoon on Wednesday. (Photo: Nang Seng Nom / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — The Tavoyan Women's Union (TWU) called for the immediate cancellation of the Dawei special Economic Zone (SEZ), in part due to its damaging impact on Tavoyan women, in a new report launched in Rangoon on Wednesday.

The group's report, "Our Lives, Not For Sale," focuses on the impact of the multi-billion dollar Dawei SEZ on local women, drawing on interviews conducted with 60 women from six villages in Yephyu Township, close to where the deep-sea port is being built.

More than 10,000 people live in these six villages, according to government figures recorded at the start of the project. Interviews for the report were conducted between September 2013 and September 2014.

"Our main finding from this research is that women's lives are getting more difficult due to the project," Soe Soe Nwe, research coordinator for the report, told The Irrawaddy.

"The rate of children dropping out of school is higher [and] more young women have left for Thailand to work."

According to the report, almost all the women interviewed have lost sources of income since the project began, due to land confiscation, destruction of farmlands and restricted access to the coast.

Forty-nine of the 60 women have taken their children out of school since the project started.

Traditional livelihoods, such as shellfish collection carried out by women, have been "drastically affected" by the project. "Just over a third of the women now have no income at all from their former livelihoods," the report said.

Speaking at the report's launch in Rangoon, Kay Kahing Yu, a villager from Mayingyi in Yephyu Township, said that the project's development had led to the destruction of fields and crops, as well as reduced yields.

"Usually we grow rice only in the monsoon season, which is enough for us to eat for the whole year. Since the [Dawei SEZ] project arrived, due to a mine at the mountain, our paddy fields were destroyed [as water became polluted]," Kay Kahing Yu said.

"Now, the yields from our paddy fields are not even enough to eat for six months. … When we went to talk with the company [Italian-Thai Development], they promised us compensation, but we still haven't received it."

The report also urged the Thai and Burmese governments, and project developers, to return confiscated land to landowners and to offer adequate compensation for damaged or confiscated land.

Yi Yi Htwe, the secretary of the Dawei Farmers Union, said the price of land in Dawei skyrocketed within a year of the project's launch and locals could no longer afford to buy land in the area.

"Suddenly we were forced to sell our land," Yi Yi Htwe said. "Farmers have no money now. There is no farmland to work on anymore. We can't even afford a plot of land in our area now due to higher prices."

The post Women's Livelihoods Undermined by Dawei SEZ: Report appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Villagers File Complaint Over Police Killing of Protestor at Copper Mine

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 04:16 AM PST

Family members of Khin Win, who was killed by police during a protest on Monday, file a complaint over her death at Salingyi Township Police Station on Tuesday evening. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Family members of Khin Win, who was killed by police during a protest on Monday, file a complaint over her death at Salingyi Township Police Station on Tuesday evening. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

SALINGYI TOWNSHIP, Sagaing Division — The family of a villager shot dead by police during a protest against a copper mine project has filed an official complaint over the killing, Sagaing Division police said.

Salingyi Township Police Station chief Col. Aung Kyaw said family members of Khin Win, a 56-year-old woman who died during the unrest on Monday, had registered their complaint at the station on Tuesday evening.

"We have accepted a complaint on the case of the death," he told Irrawaddy reporters visiting the station. "Medics will investigate the cause of death. We'll have to wait and see the results before taking further action."

Dr. Myint Than, who heads Monywa District Hospital, conducted a forensic examination on the body of Khin Win, a resident of Moegyobyin Village. "We've found no other ailments. We could confirm she was killed by a bullet as her skull was blown out," he said on Wednesday.

Thaung Htay, the younger brother of the victim, said he had reluctantly agreed to let authorities take her body to the hospital for examination. "I have no trust in the government. What if they destroy the body?" he said.

"The government mistreats us in collaboration with the Chinese, let alone protects us. We have no one to rely on," Thaung Htay said.

On Wednesday afternoon, the situation appeared to have calmed down, while staff of China's Wanbao mining company continued to clear confiscated farmland and fence off the area. Authorities spared no efforts to secure the area for the company, as dozens of police patrolled the area and placed huge rolls of barbed wire along the perimeter of the latest land seizures.

The mining complex was being further secured by high fences and the installation of watch towers, while tailings produced by the mine are being dumped to form a barrier along the edge of the area.

Tensions flared up near the Letpadaung copper mine on Monday and Tuesday after Wanbao company workers began clearing land with bulldozers and fencing off more than a dozen acres of farmland in Hse Tae Village as part of the planned expansion of the mine.

About 60 villagers, who have refused to accept what they deem as inadequate compensation for their land, faced off with dozens of armed police accompanying the Chinese workers and clashes ensued.

A doctor from the 88 Generation Peace and Open Society has said he treated 16 villagers—mostly women—who were injured in confrontations, including several shot with rubber bullets, while others were reportedly hit and kicked by police.

Witnesses and police confirmed that Khin Win was shot by a police officer during the clashes.

The US Embassy said on Wednesday that it was concerned over the clash near the Letpadaung mine.

"We are alarmed by reports of violence, including the death of a female protester, and continue to monitor the situation on the ground closely," an embassy spokesperson said.

"Resolving land and resource disputes is a major challenge all around this country. It is clear that patience, dialogue, and restraint, not the use of force, will be essential to address these issues going forward, as will be an expeditious and transparent investigation" into the incident.

Wanbao, the Chinese company constructing the Letpadaung mine in a joint venture with the Burma Army-owned Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings (UMEHL), has called the death "senseless," while at the same time defending the mine's expansion plans and accompanying land seizures. It said on Monday that local communities were properly consulted and compensated over the forced land confiscations.

The mining project has already resulted in the loss of all land in four villages while another 26 will also suffer land losses. Communities have objected against the land confiscation, the mine's environmental impact and the removal of religious structures in the area.

Wanbao struck a deal for the mega project with Burma's former military government shortly before it handed over power to a nominally-civilian government in 2011. The project is highly controversial among the Burmese public who view it as a massive land grab by Chinese investors and the army.

In the last two years, there have been numerous confrontations between villagers and security forces as the mine's operators attempted to extend the project's operating area.

In Nov. 2012, authorities caused a public outcry after police fired incendiary rounds, believed to be white phosphorous, into a protest camp near the mine. Dozens of protestors, many of them Buddhist monks, suffered serious injuries.

Following the incident, a parliamentary committee led by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi reviewed the project in early 2013 and said it should continue if the company properly addressed the mine's social and environmental impacts.

A new contract was drawn up between Wanbao, UMEHL and the government, in which the government's earnings from the project greatly increased. Several million dollars were allocated to environmental and corporate social responsibility projects, while compensation amounts for farmers were increased.

Yet the deal failed to address the grievances of many of the farmers who continue to vehemently oppose the mine's expansion.

The post Villagers File Complaint Over Police Killing of Protestor at Copper Mine appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

China Expresses Concern After Protests at Copper Mine

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 04:06 AM PST

Burmese President Thein Sein gestures beside Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the East Asia Summit in Naypyidaw in November (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Burmese President Thein Sein gestures beside Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the East Asia Summit in Naypyidaw in November (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

BEIJING — China expressed concern on Wednesday about a protest against a Chinese-run copper mine in Burma in which a person was killed and some were wounded saying China urged its companies abroad to act responsibly and protect the environment.

Burma police on Monday fired on protesters near the Letpadaung mine which is at the center of a long-running land dispute, killing one person and wounding 20.

The mining company, Myanmar Wanbao, is a unit of the Chinese weapons manufacturer China North Industries Group Corp.

"We express concern and regret at the reports of casualties. We call for the relevant parties to appropriately deal with those victims’ cases," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a daily news briefing.

She said China and Burma were friendly neighbors and their "cooperation fits the common interests of both sides".

"China’s government has consistently required Chinese enterprises with investments abroad to respect other countries’ laws and regulations, exercise social responsibility, and place importance on protecting the environment," she said.

Residents have protested against the Letpadaung mine in Monywa, about 100 km (60 miles) west of Mandalay, saying thousands of acres of land have been confiscated to enable the project to proceed.

In November, human rights group Amnesty International urged the Burmese government to halt work at the site, saying land had been acquired through a flawed process and other social and environmental issues had to be resolved.

The group also said authorities had yet to be held accountable for attacks on protesters two years earlier. In November 2012, more than 100 people including at least 67 monks were hurt when riot police raided protest camps.

Twin Chinese oil and gas pipelines across Burma have also sparked controversy, as have China’s interests in hydropower schemes.

In 2011, President Thein Sein suspended the $3.6 billion, Chinese-led Myitsone dam project, some 90 percent of whose power would have gone to China, angering Beijing.

The post China Expresses Concern After Protests at Copper Mine appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

1 Year Minimum Until Call for Upgrade, Transfer of Airports: Official

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 04:01 AM PST

Airplanes taxi on the runway at Rangoon International Airport. (Photo: Feliz Solomon / The Irrawaddy)

Airplanes taxi on the runway at Rangoon International Airport. (Photo: Feliz Solomon / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — A government call for the upgrading and privatization of 30 domestic airports in Burma has been postponed until late next year at the earliest, due to ongoing efforts to transfer three international airports to private hands, according to Win Swe Tun, the director general of the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA).

The DCA announced in November 2013 that it would put out a call for private domestic or foreign companies to upgrade and take over operations at 30 out of the country's 69 domestic airports.

More than one year since the department invited the private sector to submit Registry of Interest papers, Win Swe Tun told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday that the plan would be delayed at least 12 more months.

"We are going to transfer all of Mandalay [International] Airport to a Japanese firm this coming March, so there are still two airports to be done before issuing domestic airports tenders, so it will be delayed until the end of next year," Win Swe Tun said.

Last month, the government announced that Japan's Jalux Inc. and Mitsubishi Corp., and a subsidiary of local firm Yoma Strategic Holdings, were granted the license to upgrade and operate Mandalay International Airport at an estimated cost of US$100 million.

"So after transferring Mandalay Airport, we need to discuss further the Yangon and Hanthawaddy airport transfers to private companies. It will take time, we expect that it will all be done next year," Win Swe Tun said.

Singapore's Yongnam Holdings has been awarded the contract to construct the Hanthawaddy International Airport, a project about 50 miles north of Rangoon that is expected to cost $1.5 billion. A subsidiary of the Burmese conglomerate Asia World was awarded a $150 million contract to upgrade the current Rangoon International Airport.

The DCA director general said Wednesday that his department would be looking for detailed plans from bidders.

"We want to encourage the private sector to prepare precise master plans for their proposed airports before submitting the application to us. They still have time, it should include details on how much they can invest and how they plan to operate the airports," Win Swe Tun said.

The DCA had received hundreds of Registry of Interest applications by early this year, but Win Swe Tun said many were lacking in specifics. When the department has completed the transfer of the three international airports in Mandalay and Rangoon, it will ask interested parties to reapply.

According to the DCA, Nyaung U (Bagan), Heho (Inle Lake), Thandwe, Sittwe and Dawei are Burma's busiest domestic airports, and received the most interest from bidders. On the other end of the spectrum, some airports among the 69 are not even currently operational for want of sufficient passenger demand.

"So we will have to reconsider whether we still need to spend government funds to operate these airports in future," Win Swe Tun said.

According to the DCA, the government currently spends about $12 million annually on running its 69 domestic airports.

Most airports in Burma are small, potentially hazardous and lack sophisticated technology, following decades of mismanagement and neglect under the previous military regime.

Phyo Wai Yar Zar, chairman of the Myanmar Tourism Marketing Board, said that services at Burma's domestic airports were lagging behind even smaller regional neighbors like Cambodia and Laos.

"Domestic airports' services are weak, and a lack of sanitation systems around airports are an annoyance for passengers as well. Even in Yangon International Airport, there is betel nut liquid around the [luggage] conveyors," he said.

"We can't complain to the government about these things, but I hope that if private companies are allowed to operate these airports as soon as possible, it may cost [passengers] more but will provide better services and a cleaner environment," he said.

The DCA hopes to sign public-private partnership agreements in which private investors agree take over airport management and upgrade infrastructure and technology. The agency would continue to be responsible for airport security and air traffic control.

The post 1 Year Minimum Until Call for Upgrade, Transfer of Airports: Official appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Thousands Protest Against Mandalay Gem Market Move

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 03:54 AM PST

Thousands gather in Mandalay to protest a proposal to relocate the country's largest gem market, Dec. 23, 2014. (Photo: Teza Hlaing / The Irrawaddy)

Thousands gather in Mandalay to protest a proposal to relocate the country's largest gem market, Dec. 23, 2014. (Photo: Teza Hlaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Crowds took to the streets of Burma's second largest city on Tuesday to protest a government proposal to relocate the country's principal jade and gems market.

Organizers of the demonstration estimated that tens of thousands of people gathered in downtown Mandalay to voice their opposition to the plan, which would move the marketplace from Maha Aungmyay Township to Amarapura, about 8 km (5 miles) south of the city center.

Than Win, chairman of a committee advocating for renovation over relocation, told The Irrawaddy that while he and his colleagues requested permission for 50,000 people to demonstrate, police allowed for 40,000. Mandalay police confirmed that they authorized a mass demonstration.

Mandalay Mayor Aung Maung tabled the proposal in the divisional parliament in early December, signaling that the plan may soon become a reality. Traders have opposed the move since it was first proposed in 2012, claiming that it disenfranchised small-scale merchants and left their merchandise vulnerable to theft.

Proponents of the move said the current market is run down, crowded and unkempt, but traders countered that they had twice proposed renovating the market instead of relocating it, a proposal that they claimed had been not yet been addressed by lawmakers.

"We have already requested three times by letter that the divisional government not move the marketplace, and we have also proposed that we upgrade the [existing] market with our money," said Naing Lin Aung, also a member of the Committee to Deter Moving of the Gems Marketplace.

Kyaw Zaw Aung, the secretary of the committee, said that moving could be disastrous for small-scale local traders.

"The new market is very far from Mandalay, and the place is not safe for merchants as they would carry gems with them on their way. They could be mugged," he said. "And again, smaller gems merchants will have to spend more for travel expenses."

Locals said that though the proposal has not yet been approved, a new facility is already being built near Amapura's Sim and Myinmu villages on a 6-acre plot of land. The main company involved in the project is Aye Aye Khaing Co. Ltd., a leading gem trading firm, according to committee members.

Traders said the current market houses more than 1,000 showrooms, where about 3,000 dealers make their living peddling rare stones. The market supports the livelihoods of countless others who work as porters, cutters and polishers. Some traders estimated that as many as 8,000 people would be directly affected by the move.

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Forged Statements From NLD, President Criticize Letpadaung Protesters

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 09:02 PM PST

A copy of a forged statement, bearing the letterhead and seal of the National League for Democracy, which criticized the Letpadaung protesters. (Photo: Facebook)

A copy of a forged statement, bearing the letterhead and seal of the National League for Democracy, which criticized the Letpadaung protesters. (Photo: Facebook)

RANGOON — Representatives of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the office of President Thein Sein have refuted the authenticity of two statements which attacked the motives of villagers protesting the Letpadaung copper mining project.

A statement purportedly signed by the President said that the Chinese firm Myanmar Wanbao Mining Copper Ltd., one of the Letpadaung project's joint venture partners, acted within the law by fencing work sites, and accused farmers of behaving unlawfully, justifying a police response which resulted in the death of 56-year-old villager Khin Win and injury to several others.

The statement said that farmers connected with Khin Win and other protestors would be charged for their "criminal activity" and concluded with an effusive apology to Wanbao and the People's Republic of China.

The NLD statement, complete with the party's letterhead and seal, criticized farmers for opposing government policies, and urged for farmers involved in the land dispute and protest ringleaders to be charged. Both forgeries were widely circulated over social media on Monday.

Zaw Htay, director of the President's office, and the NLD both took to Facebook on Tuesday to announce both statements were fake. Nyan Win, a spokesman for the NLD, said that the party was still discussing the faked letter and formulating an appropriate response.

"We are still finding out about the extent of that problem," he told The Irrawaddy. "We are solving that problem with the committee so we can't say anything now. If it is necessary we will issue a statement."

This is the second time that the NLD has been the victim of a forged official statement. In the aftermath of religious riots in Mandalay last July, an anonymous social media user published a statement with the party's logo and letterhead, stating that the NLD was "fully backing the Muslims" and would support efforts to prosecute Buddhist rioters, in an attempt to discredit the party.

Lawyer Kyee Myint told The Irrawaddy that the creator of the false statements faced a harsh punishment if caught.

"If the person who distributed the fake statements is revealed, he or she can be sentenced under Article 468 of the Penal Code with seven years' imprisonment," he said.

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Can We Open Our Presents Yet?

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 01:00 AM PST

Curfew in Indian State After Tribal Militants Kill 48

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 09:33 PM PST

Indian security personnel stand on a boat to keep vigil in the river Brahmaputra ahead of India's Independence Day in the north-eastern state of Assam on August 6, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

Indian security personnel stand on a boat to keep vigil in the river Brahmaputra ahead of India’s Independence Day in the north-eastern state of Assam on August 6, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

GUWAHATI, India — India imposed a curfew in parts of the northeastern state of Assam on Wednesday after suspected tribal guerrillas killed 48 people in a series of attacks in retaliation for an offensive against them.

Assam has a history of sectarian bloodshed and groups fighting for greater autonomy or secession from India.

Tuesday's attacks in four places by militants of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland within the space of an hour were the deadliest in months.

Villagers told police the rebels came on foot, armed with assault rifles and wearing military uniforms.

"The militants first came and asked for water. Suddenly they opened fire with their AK-47 rifles," a witness, who fled into jungle, later told reporters.

The guerrillas say they are fighting for a separate homeland for indigenous Bodo people. They complain that the tea-growing state has been flooded with outsiders.

Indian security forces launched a campaign last month against the rebels in their remote hideouts, prompting a threat from them to target settlers.

"They didn't even spare women and children," said a police officer, adding there were at least 10 women among the dead in Tuesday's violence. At least 13 children were killed.

Lalit Gogoi, deputy commissioner of the worst-affected Sonitpur district, said the army had been put on standby and a dusk to dawn curfew imposed.

The single hospital in Sonitpur was crowded with scores of people with gunshot wounds.

Assam is one of seven states in India's northeast, a region bounded by China, Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Residents have long accused the federal government of plundering its natural resources and ignoring development.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to accelerate the development of roads and railways in the area.

At least 10,000 people, most of them civilians, have been killed in Assam state alone in the last three decades.

In May, rebels from the same group shot and killed more than 30 Muslim settlers in the region.

Additional reporting by Muneea Navqi of The Associated Press.

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US Calls Planned Thai Poll Delay to 2016 ‘Unwise’

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 09:22 PM PST

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha salutes members of the Royal Thai Army after a handover ceremony for the new Royal Thai Army Chief, Gen. Udomdej Sitabutr, on Sept. 30. (Photo: Reuters)

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha salutes members of the Royal Thai Army after a handover ceremony for the new Royal Thai Army Chief, Gen. Udomdej Sitabutr, on Sept. 30. (Photo: Reuters)

BANGKOK / WASHINGTON — A general election to return Thailand to democracy will be held in February 2016 at the earliest, a deputy prime minister said after talks with a US diplomat on Tuesday, a delay Washington later called "unwise and unjustified."

The military government, established after a May 22 coup, said last month an election planned for late 2015 would be delayed until 2016, giving more time for reforms that the military says should bring stability after a decade of factional rivalry.

On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Wisanu Krue-ngam clarified the target date after talks with US Charge d'Affaires W. Patrick Murphy.

"I told the US charge d'affaires today elections will take place at the earliest in February 2016," Wisanu told reporters.

"But if we have to have a referendum, polls could be delayed by a further three months," he said, referring to a possible plebiscite on a new constitution.

The United States, a long-time ally of Thailand, expressed dismay at the coup and froze US$4.7 million of security-related assistance, canceled high-level engagements, some military exercises and training programs for the military and police.

A spokesperson for the US State Department said Washington believed Thais should be allowed to choose a democratically elected government "as soon as possible."

"We … believe a delay until 2016 would be unwise and unjustified," the spokesperson added.

The May coup followed months of establishment-backed protests against a populist elected government.

A junta-appointed National Reform Council last week proposed stripping parliament of the power to appoint a prime minister and cabinet.

On Tuesday, a committee appointed to draft a new constitution rejected that recommendation.

A senior Western diplomat said he was not optimistic about the possibility of an election in 2016, fearing Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the army chief who launched the coup, could come up with a justification to delay.

"It is not inconceivable that Prayuth will stay in power for two to three years," said the diplomat, who declined to be identified.

Questions over the return to democracy come at a time of extreme sensitivity surrounding the monarchy, in particular the issue of succession, which has formed part of the backdrop to the complex national crisis.

King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 87, is in hospital recovering from gallbladder surgery. The king is regarded as almost divine by many Thais and is widely seen as a unifying figure through years of political unrest.

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India Slashes Health Budget, Already One of the World’s Lowest

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 09:12 PM PST

A man gets his eye tested at a free eye-care camp in Mumbai December 6, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

A man gets his eye tested at a free eye-care camp in Mumbai December 6, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

NEW DELHI — The Indian government has ordered a cut of nearly 20 percent in its 2014/15 healthcare budget due to fiscal strains, putting at risk key disease control initiatives in a country whose public spending on health is already among the lowest in the world.

Two Health Ministry officials told Reuters on Tuesday that more than 60 billion rupees, or US$948 million, has been slashed from their budget allocation of around $5 billion for the financial year ending on March 31.

Despite rapid economic growth over the past two decades, successive governments have kept a tight rein on healthcare expenditure. India spends about 1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on public health, compared to 3 percent in China and 8.3 percent in the United States.

But hopes were high that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was elected in May, would upgrade basic health infrastructure and make medical services more affordable for the poor.

The United Nations estimates about one third of the world’s 1.2 billion poorest people live in India.

"We were not expecting [budget cuts] this time because of the commitments they made in the manifesto," one of the health ministry officials said, referring to Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). "No reason was given … but there is shortage of funds. It is not rocket science."

The officials requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The Finance Ministry, which ordered the spending reduction and overruled objections from the Health Ministry at a recent meeting, did not respond immediately to requests for comment.

The move reflects the government’s struggle to achieve its 2014/15 fiscal deficit target of 4.1 percent of GDP.

Dominated by private players, India’s healthcare industry is growing at an annual clip of around 15 percent, but public spending has remained low and resulted in a dilapidated network of government hospitals and clinics, especially in rural areas.

One of the Health Ministry officials said the cut could crimp efforts to control the spread of diseases. More newborns die in India than in poorer neighbors such as Bangladesh, and preventable illnesses such as diarrhea kill more than a million children every year.

The retrenchment could also derail an ambitious universal healthcare program that Modi wants to launch in April. The plan aims to provide all citizens with free drugs and diagnostic treatments, as well as insurance benefits.

The cost of that program over the next four years had been estimated at 1.6 trillion Indian rupees ($25 billion). The Health Ministry officials had been expecting a jump in their budget for the coming year, in part to pay for this extra cost.

"Even next year we don’t think we’ll get a huge amount of money," said one official, adding that it was now unclear how the new program would be funded.

HIV/AIDS Funds Slashed

In addition to the healthcare budget, the finance ministry has also ordered a spending cut for India’s HIV/AIDS program by about 30 percent to 13 billion rupees ($205.4 million).

India had the third-largest number of people living with HIV in the world at the end of 2013, according to the U.N. AIDS program, and it accounts for more than half of all AIDS-related deaths in the Asia-Pacific.

In October, India was on the brink of running out of a critical medicine in its free HIV/AIDS drugs program due to bureaucratic delays. A crisis was averted with the assistance of pharmaceutical companies and global health organizations.

Still, health activists complain about dire shortages of several HIV/AIDS diagnostic kits.

"We are all in shock. That shows the kind of importance the government attaches to public health," said Leena Menghaney, a New Delhi-based public health activist. "This will undermine the HIV program in the long run."

The post India Slashes Health Budget, Already One of the World’s Lowest appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Democratic Voice of Burma

Democratic Voice of Burma


Dawei SEZ destroying local economy, says women’s group

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 01:55 AM PST

Even though the Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is yet to be finalised, the presence of the project is already undermining local agricultural and fishing livelihoods, a new report by the Tavoyan Women's Union (TWU) claims.

TWU said the report – "Our lives–not for sale" – is based on interviews with women from six villages in the main project area, inhabited by over 10,000 people, where initial construction of this multi-billion dollar Thai-Burmese joint venture is underway.

"Women describe how widespread land confiscation, destruction of farmlands and restricted access to the coast are destroying the economic backbone of their communities," the report said, adding that the industrial zone has particularly serious impacts on women.

The NGO has called for the immediate cancellation of the project.

"The Dawei project has barely begun, but is already destroying the economic backbone of our communities, said TWU representative Su Su Swe. "It must be stopped before it proceeds any further."

The Dawei SEZ project has been fraught with investor setbacks since its initiation. Contractors Burma's Max Myanmar Group and the Ital-Thai group, Thailand's largest construction company, pulled out of the project at an early stage, leaving the Burmese government to seek new contractors.

Japan was invited to stake a claim in the SEZ, which is slated to include numerous factory outlets and a deep-sea port, but Japanese investment has since turned to the Thilawa SEZ, which is situated close to Rangoon.

In October, when Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha paid an official visit to Burma, both governments agreed to revitalise Dawei SEZ by letting Thai firms play a larger role in the much-delayed project.

Officials from Burma and Thailand are scheduled to meet next month, reported to be in Bangkok on 7-9 January, to approve the framework for the initial phase of the delayed project.

TWU said that most local women said they had lost all or part of their income from farms, orchards and coastal shellfish collection, and are now facing food insecurity.

"Over three-quarters of the women [in the survey] had been forced to take their children out of school for financial reasons, including from primary school. Girls are increasingly being sent to work in Thailand to earn money for their families, placing them at risk of trafficking and exploitation," the report said.

TWU said that sexual harassment from workers at the project site threatens women's security.

The report also criticised the mass relocations forced on locals as land is confiscated to make way for expanding the project and building roads. It also pointed towards the pollution and environmental problems that were inevitably linked to such a massive industrial zone.

 

 

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Latpadaung: Khin Win’s family demand justice

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 01:16 AM PST

Salingyi Township police have accepted a First Information Report filed by the family of Ma Khin Win, the Mogyopyin villager who was killed in Monday's clash between protestors and riot police at the Latpadaung copper mine site.

Farmer Khin Win, 50, was shot in the head when riot police opened fire on a crowd of villagers confronting them and trying to prevent workers from mine contractors Myanmar Wanbao from erecting fences around plots of land that the protesting villagers say were confiscated from them.

Nyan Tun, a member of activist group 88 Generation Peace and Open Society (88GPOS), said they assisted Khin Win's family in filing the report. He told DVB that the local police station, situated in Monywa District, accepted the case on the evening of 23 December and promised to launch an investigation once an autopsy has confirmed the death was caused by a gunshot.

"The police have accepted the family's report and promised to open the case once an autopsy has been performed," he said.

He told DVB that the report was filed by Khin Win's sister-in-law, who lives locally, as her daughters live in Mandalay.

Nu Nu Aung, another 88GPOS activist who was present for the incidents at Latpadaung on Monday and Tuesday, said Salingyi police were initially reluctant to accept the report when the family approached them.

"We had to do a lot of painstaking talking with the police to convince them to accept the report," she said. "They complained about the fact that the body was moved from the spot, and that the case was not reported to them immediately after Ma Khin Win died.

Khin Win's body has been taken to Salingyi Hospital for an autopsy.

Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party has released a statement calling for an "accurate and precise investigation into recent incidents in Latpadaung”, and “urged swift official action in accordance with the principles of Rule of Law and Tranquility”.

The statement, released on 24 December, said that a lack of implementation of recommendations presented by the Latpadaung Investigation Commission and the disregard of specific riot-control procedures led to events where civilian lives could be harmed.

NLD leader Suu Kyi headed the investigation commission in 2013, which recommended the Chinese-back project be continued on the Latpadaung site, much to the angst of many local villagers.

International rights group Amnesty International has also called for an inquiry into the killing.

 

 

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Burma’s top taxpayers 2014 announced

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 12:56 AM PST

Burma's Internal Revenue Department has published a list of the top 1,000 commercial and income taxpayers in the fiscal year 2013-14.

Ranking at the top of the commercial taxpaying list is military-owned Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings’ subsidiary Myawaddy Trading Ltd, alongside Dagon Beverages Co Ltd, each of whom paid more than 10 billion kyat (US$10 million) in commercial tax for the year.

Myawaddy Trading Ltd, whose parent company is operated by Burma's Department of Defence, is primarily a trading business and is involved in a range of sectors, including banking, tourism, tobacco and beverages. Dagon Beverages is best known for its Dagon and Skol beers and lagers, and produces a range of soft drinks

Htoo Trading Co Ltd, owned by business tycoon Tay Za, ranked only 31st on the list, paying less than 5 billion kyat in taxes. Among its many pursuits, the Rangoon-based firm is an exporter of timber and beans throughout South and Southeast Asia.

On the list of the top 1,000 income tax payers, Kanbawza Bank, or KBZ, ranked first with a total of 17 billion kyat in income tax paid for the fiscal year. KBZ also came first for income taxpayers in 2013.

Other companies to make the list include: AsiaWorld Co Ltd, a conglomerate with interests including import-export and transport, Shwe Taung Development, who are mostly involved in construction and engineering; and the Max Myanmar Construction Co Ltd, which is invested in construction, manufacturing and hotels. Each of those companies paid between 4 billion and 5 billion kyat income tax, and ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively.

Only companies with headquarters based in Burma were ranked in the survey.

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Compromises reached on most ceasefire issues

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 10:00 PM PST

Senior peace negotiators say they have reached agreement on several outstanding points at the latest round of ceasefire talks in Rangoon.

Dr Salai Lian Hmung Sakhong, a representative of the ethnic group's Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), told DVB at the end of the two-day talks on 23 December that: "We and the government delegates have managed to reach a compromise on the majority of the remaining points for a single-text draft of a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA)."

He could not, however, provide details of which points had been agreed and which remain outstanding.

"As for international monitors, there has been a suggestion to include three more countries on top of the UN, China and an ASEAN member, previously agreed by both sides. The UPWC said they will get back to us about this," he said.

Chin National Front leader Salai Liam Hmung Sakhong said the NCCT had suggested meeting for talks with the government's Union Peace-making Work Committee (UPWC) delegates again next month to discuss measures that would prevent further hostilities between ethnic armed groups and Burmese government forces. He said 15-16 January had been penciled in as dates for the next meeting.

"We suggested a meeting be held in Myitkyina to prevent more incidents like the boot camp shelling in Laiza, but the UPWC proposed holding talks in Rangoon. We await their response on this issue too," he said.

Hla Maung Shwe, a senior advisor for the Myanmar Peace Centre, which has brokered successive rounds of peace talks, said at a press conference that he was confident both sides would sign an NCA this coming Union Day, 12 February, a date that marks the anniversary of the signing of the Panglong Agreement in 1947.

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National News

National News


Traffic study details illegal cat trade in two border towns

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 02:12 AM PST

The trade in tiger and other wild cat parts from Myanmar into China has grown in recent years but diminished into Thailand, a new study released by wildlife trade monitoring group Traffic says.

Ceasefire negotiators target Union Day signing

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 02:12 AM PST

Peace negotiators say they expect to sign a controversial nationwide ceasefire agreement on February 12, 2015, following two days of negotiations in Yangon last week.

A military reporters' club suggested for ease of military information flow

Posted: 24 Dec 2014 02:06 AM PST

Dinner parties with the generals - that's how reporters could soon be getting their scoops from the military, if a proposal from a senior Tatmadaw officer is put into action.

Police peacefully end City Hall land sit-in

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 09:25 PM PST

A 12-day sit-in protest at Yangon's City Hall over land confiscations in Thingangyun's Mee Gyaung Kan ward came to an end last week when 14 protesters were taken to court 15 hours after a meeting in which police warned of the coming action.

FDA to crack down on pesticide in dried fish

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 09:16 PM PST

Health authorities have launched a crackdown to keep dangerous pesticides out of the food chain.


YCDC website accepts corruption complaints

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 09:12 PM PST

Corrupt Yangon City Development Committee officials can now be reported through a newly launched website, www.ycdc.gov.mm.

Regional government happy to keep the bribes flowing

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 09:02 PM PST

On December 12, Yangon Region Hluttaw representative U Thaung Kyaw submitted a proposal to "make a law and allow massage parlours in Yangon Region to operate according to a legal framework".

Road traffic fines set for sharp increase

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 08:59 PM PST

Paltry fines for traffic violations set by out-of-date laws could soon increase dramatically, police say.


Mogok residents object to gem association office project

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 08:53 PM PST

Residents and environmental activists in the famed ruby-mining town of Mogok have objected to a construction project beside an iconic lake in the town's centre.

Breeding program needed to save Irrawaddy dolphin

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 08:47 PM PST

The critically endangered Irrawaddy dolphin needs a safe place to breed if it is to stave off the extinction, an adviser to the Myanmar Fisheries Federation.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Interview with Sai Wansai, General Secretary of SDU

Posted: 23 Dec 2014 06:17 PM PST

Recently, there has been a lot of discussions touching on minority-majority, and national identity issues. The following is a reproduction from an interview on 4 June 2005. — Editor

Recently, an article advocating the forming of a federal union without the Burman state or Burma Proper have been publicized and it creates some curiosity, if not alarmed, on this trend of advocacy.

Sai Wansai


Maung Chan of Boxun News (S.H.A.N. & Burma's News Published by Burma's Chinese ) called on Sai Wansai, General Secretary of the Shan Democratic Union SDU ,who is familiar with Burmans' and non-Burmans' political scenario, to clarify the motive behind such an outburst.

MgChan - What is your opinion on Prof. Kanbawza Win's article of forming a federal union without the Burmans?

SaiWanSai - Prof. Kanbawza Win, as an individual is entitled to express his own opinion and it is not necessarily the political stand of the non-Burman ethnic nationality groups. But my interpretation is that he might like to point out that many of the Burman opposition elements still cannot clean themselves of racial supremacy, chauvinism or big brother mentalityvis-à-vis the other non-Burman groups. This, in turn, leads to the thinking of "if the Burmans are so consumed by their own political agendas of placing themselves above the norms of "equality, restoration of democracy and the rights of self-determination, the non-Burman ethnic nationality groups might as well form a union without the Burmans". The outburst is more on the side of venting anger on the indifferent Burman majority stakeholders, both within the military junta and opposition camps, than actually wanting to exclude the Burmans.

MgChan - How many kind of conflict resolution outcomes could you envisage, a part from forming a federal union without the Burmans?

SaiWanSai - Before we talk about conflict resolution, we should first look into the cause of conflict and type of conflict.

Cause of conflict

To understand the cause of conflict we could generally bundled the issues together into four major headings, namely: "Conceptual Differences , Constitutional Crisis, National Identity and Majority-Minority Configuration".

1. Conceptual Differences

The successive military dominated regimes, including the ruling SPDC, see Burma as an existing unified nation since the reign of Anawratha thousandsof years ago. As such, all other non-Burmans – Shan, Kachin, Chin , Arakanese, Mon, Karen and Karenni - are seen as minorities, which must be controlled and suppressed, lest they break up the country.

On the other hand, the non-Burmans maintain that the Union of Burma is a newly developed territorial entity, founded by a treaty, the Panglong Agreement, where independent territories merged together on equal basis.

Given such conceptual differences, the Burmese military goes about with its implementation of protecting "national sovereignty" and "national unity"at all cost. This, in turn, gives way to open conflict resulting in more suppression and gross human rights violations. The intolerance of the military and its inspiration to "racial supremacy", political domination and control has no limit and could be seen by its refusal to hand over power to the winners of 1990 nation-wide election, the NLD, SNLD and other ethnic parties. The genuine federalism platform, which the NLD and ethnic nationalities embrace, is a threat to its racist mind-set and obsession of domination and control.

2. Constitutional Crisis

The woes of Burma today are deeply rooted in the inadequate constitutional drafting of 1947. The Union Constitution was rushed through to completion without reflecting the spirit of Panglong. The ethnic homelands were recognized as constituent states but all power was concentrated in the central government or the government of the Burma Mother state.

Almost all the non-Burmans and Burman democratic opposition groups are in agreement that the ethnic conflict and reform of social, political and economics cannot be separated from one another. And the only solution and answer is to amend the 1947 Constitution according to Panglong Agreement,where equality, voluntary participation and self-determination, of the constituent states, formed the basis for the Republic of the Union of Burma.

3. National Identity

The views of successive Burmese governments, including the present regime , SPDC, concerning national identity has never been clear. They have been at a loss even as to what sort of name they should adopt; that is the reason why they are still using "Bamar" and "Myanmar" interchangeably for what they would like to be termed a common collective identity, in other words, national identity. The reality is that when one mentions "Myanmar", "Bamar","Burmese" or "Burman", such words are usually identified with the lowland majority "Bamar" and have never been accepted or understood by the non-Bamar ethnic nationals as a common collective identity to which they also belong.

Meanwhile, just a few years back, the present Burmese military regime changed the name of Burma to Myanmar. Its aim is to create a national identity for every ethnic group residing within the boundary of the so-called Union of Myanmar. But since the name Myanmar has always been identified with the lowland "Bamar", the SPDC effort the SPDC's effort intrying to establish a common national identity among the non-Bamar ethnic nationals is only doomed to fail. On top of that, this national identity was not chosen with the consent of the non-Bamar ethnic groups, but coercively thrust down their throats by the hated Burmese military dictatorship.

It has never been the case to hear anyone mentioning that he or she is a Bamar Myanmar, Shan Myanmar, Kachin Myanmar, Karen Myanmar and so on. In the United States, by contrast, it is normal that one considers or accepts oneself as an American; such as, the use of Chinese American, Japanese American, Afro-American and so on are common and widespread.

Another crucial point that most tend to overlook is that the maintenance of the former European colonial boundaries as irreversible and sacrosanct national state boundaries. This, in reality, only creates unending ethnic conflicts the world over affecting international stability. Burma is such a case, infested with ethnic and social conflicts.

The point to note here is that the successive Burmese governments' nation-building process has totally shattered, failing even to take root after all these years, not to mention the forging of common national identity. It would be more pragmatic to accept the existing diversified "national identities" of all ethnic nationalities as a fact and work for a new common identity in the future federal union with the consent and participation of all ethnic groups, Burman included.

4. Majority-Minority Configuration

The misconception of majority-minority configuration has been so entrenched; at least in medias and academic studies, it needs some clarification.

The Burman are majority in Burma Proper and in numerical sense, but become a minority in the Shan States, Arakan, Chin, Kachin, Karenni, Karen, and the Mon states, where respective ethnic groups are in majority within their own territories.

Besides, Burma was formed in 1947 by virtue of the Panglong Agreement, one year prior to independence. This agreement was signed between the interim government of Ministerial Burma, headed by Aung San, and leaders of the Federated Shan States, the Chin Hill Tract, and the Kachin Hill Tract. It could be said that this agreement is the genesis of the post-colonial, current Burma.

Thus, the indigenous groups of Burma -- Shan, Arakanese, Chin, Kachin,Karenni, Karen, Mon and including the Burman -- are not minorities or majorities but equal partners in a union of territories, the Union of Burma.

Type of conflict

Within Burma political arena there are roughly only two types of conflict. One is the ethnic conflict, which has a vertical nature in contrast to horizontal one, and the other, the ideological conflict played out between entrenched military dictatorship and the democratic aspiration of the people, which has a horizontal effect, covering the whole political spectrum within Burma.

The ethnic conflict is seen as vertical for the oppression of the non-Burman nationality groups comes only from the dominant, ruling Burmese military clique and not horizontally spread out racial-instigated hatred like one people killing another, such as in Sudan or Rwanda.

In contrast, the conflict between military dictatorship and democratic aspiration of the people is horizontal, for the desire of democratisation or a change to civilian rule is widespread and among the peoples of Burma.

Conflict resolution outcomes

Generally speaking, the outcomes of implementing the Right to Self-determination fall roughly into two categories. It could be understood in a strong or a weak sense. While the strong sense insists that a nation be given statehood, the weak sense only requires that a nation be given some form of self-government. Weak national self-determination is thus compatible with a multinational state in which nations are given some political autonomy. It is clear that the weak notion of self-determination can encompass differing degrees of self-determination, including confederations, federations, consociational democracies, and unitary states with subnational autonomy – that is, regional parliaments, local governments and so on.

From strictly theoretical point of view, the following options or outcomes would be open to achieve rights of self-determination for the non-Burman ethnic nationalities.

· Total independence or secession·

· Formation of a federal union as Burma is known now·

· Confederation of all states as Burma is known now·

· Formation of a federal union without Burman state·

· Confederation of all states without Burman state·

· Fusion of individual ethnic nationality territory with neighbouring countries

MgChan - Can you explain more on how these outcomes could be related to the realpolitik of the day?

SaiWanSai - · Total independence or secession·

For example, the Shan and Karenni States have always been more inclined to opt for total independence, due to their historical rights and well-defined territorial boundaries. According to the 1947 Union of Burma Constitution, both states have the right to secede after ten years from the union, if they are not satisfied or choose to separate from the union for any reason.

The abolition of the Panglong Accord and the Union Constitution of 1947 by the military regime nullified the contractual obligation between the Burman and non-Burman states and as such, all states are from constitutional and theoretical point of views independent and have nothing to do with each other. The so-called Union of Burma, which is known now, is defunct and only being kept together by forceful occupation of the Burma army and not on a voluntary basis that formed the union in 1947.

· Formation of a federal union as Burma is known now·

This option is the most accepted political solution, which many contending stake holders and even the UN and international community think is viable. The only party not in agreement is the Burmese junta, that wants to dominate the whole political spectrum with a unitary system and continues projection of its "racial supremacy" policy on the other non-Burman ethnic nationalities.

· Confederation of all states as Burma is known now·

Confederation as an association of sovereign states, usually created by treaty and later adopting a common constitution, is appealing to most of the non-Burman states. The Panglong Agreement, in fact, is a treaty, which is the fore-runner of the 1947 Union of Burma constitution. Again, this type of association is not in the interest of the Burmese junta and even most of the Burman opposition groups are reluctant to endorse such resolution for fear of losing political clout or dominant position on the non-Burman states.

· Formation of a federal union without Burman state·

In theory, it is possible to form such a union for Burma Proper or Burman state is surrounded by non-Burman states in a "horseshoe-like" formation. There are ocean outlets from Arakan state, which is on the southwestern part and from Karen and Mon states in the most southern part of Burma.

In practice, the Burma Proper is a mixture of Karen, Burman and other ethnic population and where the majority of the Karen population also resides. So it could be said that the Karen are not ready to abandon their population by forming a union without Burma Proper. Besides, homogeneity or neatly defined ethnic territories corresponding to the respective ethnic group is not the case.

In other words, most of the ethnic territories and Burma Proper itself are multi-ethnic in nature.

· Confederation of all states without Burman state·

The same argument as forming a federal union without Burman state could be applied here too.

· Fusion of individual ethnic nationality territory with neighbouring countries·

For example, if you look at the Chin state, it could opt for the fusion with Mizoram state of India, where the Mizo, who are ethnically related to the Chin, have more autonomy and could run their own affairs quite independently. Likewise, the Naga from the Burma side could also think of joining their brethren in India.

Again, if you think about the Kachin, they could unite with the same population from China across the border and choose to be part of China.

The Shan could choose to be with China, Laos or Thailand to be together with their own kin across the borders. The Shan in China, even though they are under communist rule, have more cultural rights and rights running their own affairs. Laos and Thailand are ethnically related to the Shan and opting for a fusion with either country could be better than living under the oppressed Burmese military regime.

The Karenni, Karen and Mon could also choose to merge with Thailand for they also have many of their own kinds across the border, where the people are not oppressed and possessed some degree of individual rights and democracy.

The above redrawing of the geo-political map would only come into consideration, if Burma under the military regime would become a "failed state" and sink deeper into chaos and poverty, at the expense of the region's stability peaceful co-existence.

However, these are mostly pure theoretical arguments and should not be confused with logical or practical solution envisaged by all the peoples of Burma and international stakeholders.

MgChan - Which type of outcome would be pragmatic, in your point of view?

SaiWanSai - While all the non-Burman resistance groups have started out with achieving total independence or secession as a means to achieve rights of self-determination, decades long fruitless struggle and the international configuration and political reality have changed most of their rigid stance, leading them to opt for struggling together, with the goal of establishing a genuine federal structure. The National Democratic Front (NDF), Democratic Alliance of Burma (DAB), National Council of the Union of Burma (NCUB),Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC) are all political fronts, which are designed to restore democracy, equality and rights of self-determination for all peoples of Burma.

Given that the international stakeholders are reluctant to endorse or even vocally against the disintegration of existing states, the non-Burman ethnic nationalities would have to fight an uphill battle for recognition of a newborn state or secession. Another point is that after more than five decades of armed struggle, there is no indication that the entrenched military junta could be overthrown by force. While the armed struggle of the non-Burman ethnic nationalities is defensive in nature and part and parcel of the overall resistance movement, the removal of the military junta would be only possible if a multi-pronged approach is coupled with the motto of "common goal diverse actions". In other words, the non-Burman ethnic nationalities and the Burman democratic elements would need to work together and resolve the conflict politically.

MgChan - Do you have any hope that the military junta would yield to the people's aspiration of restoring democracy anytime soon?

SaiWanSai - The non-Burman ethnic nationalities and Burman democratic opposition groups have come a long way and are, more or less, now united in their aims to achieve democracy, equality and rights of self-determination within the mould of a federal structure. The UN, international stakeholders and more importantly, the peoples of Burma have supported this. The junta can't deny the wish of the people forever and the junta's beginning of the end is unfolding at a tremendous pace, starting with the removal of General Khin Nyunt and the recent bomb blast in Rangoon, which indicates that the power struggle is on with a vengeance. Who knows, the Philippines or Indonesian scenario of one faction of the military forming alliance with the people won't be played out in Burma also.