Tuesday, June 9, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Ma Ba Tha Embraces Political Fray, Risking Election Year Sanction

Posted: 09 Jun 2015 06:12 AM PDT

Buddhist monk U Wirathu, center, leader of Ma Ba Tha, looks on as he attends a convention held by the Buddhist Power Force in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Sept. 28, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

Buddhist monk U Wirathu, center, leader of Ma Ba Tha, looks on as he attends a convention held by the Buddhist Power Force in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Sept. 28, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — An increasingly assertive Organization for the Protection of Race and Religion, the prominent Buddhist nationalist group better known as Ma Ba Tha, risks running afoul of the law as elections approach later this year, according to a law expert, with some politicians questioning the group's mixing of religion and politics.

Local media last week reported that the spokesperson for Ma Ba Tha's Rangoon chapter said if any political party "didn't support Buddhism," the organization would urge voters to boycott the party in Burma's general election, which is expected in November.

In a phone interview with The Irrawaddy on Friday, the spokesman Ashin ParMoukKha reiterated the position, saying Ma Ba Tha would subject the ruling party, its allies and opposition parties to the same scrutiny. The monk added that Ma Ba Tha had organized members in more than half of Burma's cities, and could quickly mobilize a campaign against any political party deemed unsupportive of Buddhism.

An article in the May issue of the monthly MawKwun magazine, headlined "Analyzing Ma Ba Tha," further quoted the firebrand Mandalay Ma Ba Tha leader U Wirathu as saying the group would not hesitate to speak out against the government if it didn't support Buddhism.

U Wirathu and his fellow Ma Ba Tha members have been accused of stoking anti-Muslim sentiment among Buddhists in Burma, where violence between the two faith communities has marred the country's democratic transition.

Ma Ba Tha's politicization of Buddhism is not a new development. The group has been instrumental in pushing for the passage of a set of four "Race and Religion Protection" bills, which are ostensibly aimed at preserving the religious fabric of majority-Buddhist Burma but have been decried by some as an affront to women's rights.

As Burma's general election nears, however, Ma Ba Tha may need to dial back its rhetoric, with an Election Law coming into effect that will likely prohibit using religion in an attempt to sway voters.

Aung Thein, a lawyer with more than 35 years of professional experience, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that he did not believe Ma Ba Tha would face imminent sanction because the Union Election Commission (UEC) has not yet announced a date for Election Day, when the Election Law will officially be enforced. He said, nonetheless, that Ma Ba Tha's recent statements, if made during the period that the Election Law covers, would likely violate an article of its chapter on election offences.

The legislation's 2015 iteration is yet to be finalized, but will likely be modeled after its 2010 forerunner.

An unofficial translation of the 2010 Election Law makes illegal "uttering, making speeches, making declarations and instigating to vote or not to vote on grounds of race and religion or by abetment of such acts," with a maximum penalty of one year in prison and a fine not exceeding 100,000 kyats (US$83)

Asked on Tuesday if Ma Ba Tha might be in violation the Election Law, Ko Ko, chairman of the Rangoon divisional election subcommission, did not specifically address the organization's statements, telling The Irrawaddy only that every citizen must obey the law.

Ko Ko did, however, indicate that such activities would also contravene Burma's Constitution.

The Constitution's Article 364 states: "The abuse of religion for political purposes is forbidden. Moreover, any act which is intended or is likely to promote feelings of hatred, enmity or discord between racial or religious communities or sects is contrary to this Constitution. A law may be promulgated to punish such activity."

Aung Thein, who is also a spokesman for the Myanmar Lawyers' Network, described Ma Ba Tha's forays into Burma's political arena as "inappropriate."

"The monks don't even have the right to vote, why should they take action in that way? [It is] inappropriate for a monk."

The lawyer said he did not have a sense of whether Ma Ba Tha had a political party preference, but added that it would likely be easier to infer this as election campaigning kicked off.

Aung Thein warned that the organization risked triggering political stability—and potentially delaying the election—if it followed through on its boycott campaign pledge.

That concern, being voiced not for the first time, was dismissed on Monday by UEC chairman Tin Aye, who called timely elections a "must-do."

Saw Than Myint, the deputy chairman of the Federal Union Party (FUP), echoed Aung Thein's disapproval of Ma Ba Tha's merging of religion and politics, saying it was a particularly toxic brew in Burma's racially charged environment. Calling the nationalist group's activities "extremist," he urged the UEC to sanction any violator of the Election Law during the official election period.

"Nobody should be above the law," said Saw Than Myint, who is also spokesman for the National Brotherhood Federation, an alliance of ethnic political parties that includes the FUP.

Offering his own view and not on behalf of his party, National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmaker Phyo Min Thein said he considered Ma Ba Tha's statement, first reported by local media in Pathein, to be unlawful.

"Self-defensiveness is good but should not be used for targeted abuse of others," he told The Irrawaddy. "People should be self-aware that some activities reflect on ourselves negatively."

The Irrawaddy was unable to contact Burma's highest religious authority, the government-appointed State Sangha Maha Nayaka Committee.

Asked whether he was concerned about violating the Constitution or Election Law, Ashin ParMoukKha said he was not familiar with the Election Law, but added that "we monks also dislike the 2008 Constitution."

"We didn't clash with Article 364, because we didn't say any party name," he claimed.

The post Ma Ba Tha Embraces Political Fray, Risking Election Year Sanction appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Kyat Continues to Drop Amid Cash Shortages

Posted: 09 Jun 2015 06:06 AM PDT

Burmese kyat continues to weaken against the dollar. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

Burmese kyat continues to weaken against the dollar. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — As the Burmese kyat continues its downward spiral, businesspeople claim foreign exchange counters are deliberately withholding US dollars to capitalize on their climbing value.

In an apparent attempt to prevent local reliance on the greenback, the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) in late May halved withdrawal limits from US$10,000 to $5,000, which experts warned would lead to price-gouging on the black market.

Last Friday the official exchange rate hit an all-time high of 1,105 kyats to the dollar, while black market prices soared to about 1,235 kyats. Consumers and businesspeople now say they are unable to buy dollars, even in small amounts, at private banks and forex counters, pushing them to black market sellers at distended rates.

"We can't even buy small US notes, the counter girl said they did not have any," a resident of Botataung Township told The Irrawaddy. She said she had tried to exchange small amounts at several private banks and forex counters, to no avail.

Those trading larger sums are also struggling to find dollars, which businesspeople said is already affecting retail prices because imported goods are mostly traded for USD. Myo Min Aung, vice chairman of the Myanmar Retailers Association, said the price of everyday consumer goods has already risen sharply.

"Foods and medicines are essential for users, and the prices are getting higher day by day," Myo Min Aung said, "and as long as importers spend more on the dollar the prices will keep going up."

Bankers attributed the problem to a shortfall of USD, claiming that CBM's cash limits are unrealistic in the current market. Experts have been vocal about the threat of inflation for months, meeting with CBM on several occasions to propose alternatives that would lessen the impacts on average consumers.

The kyat has continued a steady decline since it was floated at 818 to the dollar in 2012, prior to which the government had set the official exchange rate at 6.4 kyats to the US dollar.

Some experts have attributed the drop to a growing trade deficit, which reached $4.9 billion during the last fiscal year.

Tony Picon, chairman of the British Chambers of Commerce in Myanmar, told The Irrawaddy that while the issue needs careful consideration by policy makers, it is not uncommon in developing countries and does not indicate an immediate threat to the domestic economy.

"Usually as a country develops it needs more imports of capital equipment than exports. This causes balance of trade issues which in turn weakens the local currency," Picon said. "This in no way means the economy is breaking down, just issues that should be carefully addressed."

The post Kyat Continues to Drop Amid Cash Shortages appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘NC Show’ in Rangoon Celebrates Four Burmese Painters

Posted: 09 Jun 2015 05:34 AM PDT

Click to view slideshow.

RANGOON — Nestled amid the artistic hub of Pansodan Street, the Lokanat Gallery of Art is displaying the works of four Burmese artists in an exhibition titled "NC Show."

Inside the yellow colonial-style building, which houses one of Burma's foremost art galleries, are more than 20 paintings by Burmese artists Ngu Ein Htet Myet, Ke' Su Thar, Soe Hnin Aung and Ko Sid.

The show, to which admission is free, opened on Monday and will continue through Saturday.

Artist Ke' Su Thar told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that of his seven pieces being exhibited, four feature mixed medium installations with art he painted on cloth made from waistcoats.

"I drew so that I could see the painting as a person whose feelings show from inside their heart," he said of his work.

Other works include both abstract and conceptual paintings. Sale prices for the pieces range from US$250-3,000.

The Lokanat Gallery of Art is located at No. 62, 1st floor, Pansodan Street, and is open every day from 9:00am to 5:00pm.

The post 'NC Show' in Rangoon Celebrates Four Burmese Painters appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Human Rights Film Festival Returns to Rangoon for a Third Year

Posted: 09 Jun 2015 05:05 AM PDT

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi addresses the crowd at Rangoon's inaugural Human Rights Human Dignity International Film Festival in 2013. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi addresses the crowd at Rangoon's inaugural Human Rights Human Dignity International Film Festival in 2013. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — The third edition of the Human Rights Human Dignity International Film Festival (HRHDIFF) will be held in Rangoon next week.

The five-day, free admission festival features 69 documentary and short films from around the world, to be shown at downtown's Waziyar and Nay Pyi Taw Cinemas.

"When a political change is coming… you need to also free human minds on an individual level," said Igor Blaževič, founder of the Czech Republic's One World Film Festival, the biggest human rights documentary film festival in Europe, who will serve on the jury of the HRHDIFF's film competition. "You need to take this garbage out…to understand new ideas. Films can do a lot to help people open their minds. That's why this festival is important."

Organizers of HRHDIFF have prepared seven awards, named after prominent figures including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, 88 Generation Peace and Open Society leader Min Ko Naing and former political prisoner Win Tin, to be given to the best documentaries, animation, short films and student movies featured in the festival.

A human rights for women theme has been included in this year's line-up, with films highlighting the challenges faced by women and girls both in Burma and worldwide. Blaževič encouraged women attendees to bring their husbands, sons, brothers and boyfriends to these film screenings in particular.

"These are the films that men should watch. Only then, I think, will they have a better understanding of and sympathy for women," said festival founder and documentarian Min Htin Ko Ko Gyi.

The festival's opening film is the work of alumni from the Human Dignity Film Institute and explores the impact of the Shwe Gas pipeline, Burma's first cross-country natural gas transport project linking Arakan State to China's Yunnan province.

A photography exhibition presenting the work of Ondřej Němec, who captured a series of pictures of renowned writer and former Czech Republic President Václav Havel, will also be held at the Pansodan Scene art gallery alongside the festival.

Trailers, descriptions and a schedule of the films can be found at the festival's website.

The post Human Rights Film Festival Returns to Rangoon for a Third Year appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Relationships Are All About Give and Take

Posted: 09 Jun 2015 04:56 AM PDT

Relationships Are All About Give and Take

Relationships Are All About Give and Take

The post Relationships Are All About Give and Take appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Mongton Dam Consultations a ‘Rubber Stamp’: Community Groups

Posted: 09 Jun 2015 04:49 AM PDT

A boat travels along the Salween River in Shan State, the slated site of the Mongton hydroelectric dam. (Photo: Saw Yan Naing / The Irrawaddy)

A boat travels along the Salween River in Shan State, the slated site of the Mongton hydroelectric dam. (Photo: Saw Yan Naing / The Irrawaddy)

CHIANG MAI, Thailand — Civil society organizations in Shan State have called for an immediate halt to a planned hydroelectric dam on the Salween River, accusing an Australian company of helping to push the project ahead without proper public consultation.

For the last three months, area villagers have held protests against community consultation meetings organized by Australia's Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation (SMEC), which has been tasked with assessing the potential environmental and social impact of the Mongton dam.

In a statement on Tuesday, a group of 16 Shan civil society organizations claimed that instead of providing a genuine forum to discuss the dam's impact, the SMEC's community consultations were being used to expedite the project.

"It is becoming apparent that SMEC's (impact assessment) process is simply a sham, aimed to rubber-stamp the Mongton dam plans, rather than objectively assess the project's actual impacts," the statement read. "Despite promising to hold 'comprehensive' public consultations in impacted townships, SMEC has since last month canceled all public consultations at the township level, instead only holding closed-door meetings with government officials…This appears to be a deliberate strategy to avoid facing community protests against the dam."

The largest of six hydroelectric dams proposed for Burma's Salween River, the Mongton dam is a joint project between China's Three Gorges Corporation, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, and Burma's Ministry of Electric Power. Another reported partner is the International Group of Entrepreneurs, a company run by the family of Union Solidarity and Development Party lawmaker Aung Thaung, who was added to the US Treasury's sanctions list last year.

If completed, the 227-meter high dam would produce 6400 megawatts of electricity at peak output, 90 percent of which would be exported to China and Thailand.

There have been consistent local objections to the Mongton dam proposal since the project's backers signed a memorandum of understanding in 2010. Environmentalists say the project's reservoir would stretch across two-thirds of the length of Shan State and flood a substantial part of Kunhing Township.

The SMEC's public consultations, beginning in March before moving to Mongton and Kunhing Townships the following months, were met with local protests, and a public meeting in Kunhing on Apr. 30 was canceled after news of a further protest became public.

Tuesday's statement alleged that SMEC field surveyors had been forced to leave Mongton after angering locals "by only explaining the positive impacts of the dam, giving them 'gifts' which they saw as bribes, and persuading them to sign documents they didn't understand."

The civil society coalition has called for SMEC to end its impact assessment studies and investors to withdraw from the site, noting that over 60 Chinese engineers had been based at the site since earlier in the year to conduct hydrological and geological tests.

Sai Khur Hseng, a spokesman for the coalition, said that the project should be shelved until the conclusion of a nationwide peace settlement that devolved infrastructure and resource decisions to local communities.

"We should wait until there is a negotiated federal agreement under the peace process, which would give ethnic people decision-making power to protect their natural resources, including waterways, in their areas," he told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday.

Nang Wah Nu, a Shan Nationalities Development Party lawmaker representing Kunhing Township in the state parliament, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that the government appeared determined to continue with the Salween hydropower projects despite public opposition

Last year, Nang Wah Nu used a parliamentary session to ask whether the projects would continue.

"I have not got the answer yet, but was told the answer would come after the impact assessment works are finished," she said, adding that the public would appreciate the Shan State government taking a strong stand against the dams.

The Rangoon offices of SMEC could not be reached for comment on Tuesday despite numerous attempts by phone and email.

The post Mongton Dam Consultations a 'Rubber Stamp': Community Groups appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Suu Kyi’s Mission to China: It’s Complicated

Posted: 09 Jun 2015 04:38 AM PDT

US President Barack Obama and Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi exit her residence for a news conference at their meeting in Rangoon on Nov. 19, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

US President Barack Obama and Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi exit her residence for a news conference at their meeting in Rangoon on Nov. 19, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

Politics, as we all know, can make for strange bedfellows. Five years ago, few would have imagined that the Communist Party of China (CPC) would ever invite Burma's opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, for a diplomatic visit. Alas, it happened.

Suu Kyi, chairwoman of the National League for Democracy (NLD), is set to visit Burma's behemoth neighbor from June 10 to 14, when she will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, according to a party spokesperson. Beijing's decision to invite her, during a turbulent time in bilateral relations and in the lead-up to Burma's general election later this year, was a bold one that is sure to have an impact on the polls.

Suu Kyi, who has long been an icon of democratic ideals in Burma, has kept much of her domestic popularity despite recent criticisms coming from the West. Not only has she retained much of her support, which she accumulated during decades spent mostly under house arrest by the late military regime, but she has also transformed herself into a pragmatic politician.

This very well may be her message to Beijing: If her party wins, she'll be there to protect their economic and strategic interests in Burma, which has spent recent years courting friends and allies in Western capitals. And Beijing's message to her? Perhaps this is a hint that China has already placed bets on the election.

While "The Lady," as Suu Kyi is affectionately known in her home country, is well versed in role-play, it's not the face of democracy and human rights that Beijing wants to see. On the contrary, it is the influential and popular political figurehead they want. In the view of China's leadership, why not bring her over for a talk? She has already been to the White House, now she can come to Beijing and meet Obama's Eastern counterpart.

This is a particularly fraught time in Burma's relationship with China, and the ruling administration doesn't seem too bothered. In recent months, conflict in the Kokang Region, which lies on the Sino-Burmese border, has spilled over into Yunnan, leaving several Chinese villagers dead and others injured. The Burma Army has denied responsibility for the stray fire, blaming it instead on ethnic rebels. The Burmese government, it should be said, had also previously accused China of assisting the rebels, who go by the name of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).

In the latest installment of detonation drama along the border, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) last week carried out a live-fire drill along the border, which was widely viewed as a warning signal to the Burmese government. China clearly has hit a rocky patch with its former friend, but the central and most immediate reason for rekindling their relationship is that Beijing wants to counter the growing Western influence next door.

Aung Zaw is the founding editor-in-chief of The Irrawaddy.

Aung Zaw is the founding editor-in-chief of The Irrawaddy.

The relationship between Beijing and Naypyidaw—and its chief executive, former military man Thein Sein—has observably soured since the 2011 suspension of the US$3.6 billion China-backed Myitsone hydropower project in northern Burma's Kachin State. Needless to say, China wants to restart the project as soon as possible. Like it or not, China is still Burma's largest investor, accounting for about US14.6 billion in cumulative investments—nearly a third of all FDI.

China has invested in just about every sector of Burma's budding economy, with a particularly strong foothold in hydropower, gas and oil. To make matters more complicated, most of China's energy investments are located in volatile ethnic states. It is foreseeable that China could lose that advantage to Western majors, if the administration and the population favor them.

Suu Kyi, it seems, is seen as China's best chance of keeping its stake in Burma. She is bound to be an influential political player before and after elections, and, if properly courted, might be willing to endorse Chinese investments and calm rising anti-China sentiment among the Burmese public. After all, she has already demonstrated to some degree her willingness to appease China. In 2013, she led a commission that gave a green light to the controversial Letpadaung copper mining project, which had been the site of massive land rights demonstrations.

"We have to get along with the neighboring country, whether we like it or not," Suu Kyi explained to The Guardian amid the ensuing wave of criticism.

It was an odd position to take for someone who was confined to her house for nearly two decades by a brutal military regime that was supported by that very neighbor. China even defended the detention of Suu Kyi and several of her pro-democracy colleagues, viewing it as an issue of internal affairs. It seems that both Suu Kyi and China's leadership are ready to turn a new leaf. As China's state-run news agency, Xinua, declared in a June 7 editorial, "China welcomes anyone with friendly intentions and it bears no grudge for past unpleasantness."

The true motivations will surely soon become clear, but if Suu Kyi wishes to keep the trust and support of the people of Burma, she would be wise to use this opportunity to bring their interests with her and make them known to China's leadership.

The post Suu Kyi's Mission to China: It's Complicated appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The Kachin Conflict: A Timeline

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 10:03 PM PDT

Fighting between the Kachin Independence Army, pictured, and the Burma Army peaked in late 2012 and early 2013 around Laiza in Kachin State. (Photos: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

Fighting between the Kachin Independence Army, pictured, and the Burma Army peaked in late 2012 and early 2013 around Laiza in Kachin State. (Photos: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has been at various points of engagement with the Burmese army since 1961 when the Kachins first demanded independence. Later, it called for Kachin autonomy within a federal system—another aspiration which was never fulfilled. In 1994, it reached a ceasefire agreement with the ruling military leaders, this time with a call for no more than development in their region.

Since then, the mountainous terrain of Kachin State has seen much development, including the development of controversial Chinese mega-project investments, such as the Myitsone dam, as well as rampant logging and destructive jade-mining operations.

These projects, which right groups say will extract an enormous social and environmental price from the region, have generated much animosity in KIA circles and among the Kachin public. KIA officials said they were never consulted about these projects, but have instead experienced Burmese military encroachment into their area.

After the KIA rejected a 2010 government order to transform into a border guard force under the central command of the Burma Army, tension began building. Nerves finally snapped on June 9 when fierce and bloody fighting broke out between the KIA and Burmese government forces.

More than 100,000 civilians, mostly ethnic Kachin, Shan and Lisu, are displaced in the months following the outbreak of the conflict.

Fighting peaked in late 2012 and early 2013, with the Burma Army carrying out air strikes against the lightly-armed rebels. In February 2013, fighting slowly quieted down as the KIA and the government began ceasefire negotiations that thus far have failed to produce an agreement.

Timeline of the Kachin conflict:

February 1947—Kachin leaders signed the Panglong Agreement with the Burmese government, which laid the foundation for the creation of a fully autonomous Kachin State.

February 1949—Naw Seng, a Kachin military officer in the Burmese army, defected to the Karen rebels along with his battalion. He then led the first Kachin rebel army in the fight for Kachin independence.

February 1961—Parliament under then Burmese Prime Minister U Nu declared Buddhism the state religion, infuriating the mostly Christian Kachin population.

February 1961—A group of educated young Kachin men founded the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and pledged to fight for a free Kachin republic. Intense fighting with the Burmese army ensued.

August 1963—Burmese Gen Ne Win, who came to power after staging a military coup, held peace talks with ethnic armed forces, including the Kachin. However, negotiations broke down after the ethnic representatives rejected Ne Win's demands, which included a condition that their armed forces must be concentrated in designated zones and their activities must be disclosed to his regime.

October 1980—Brang Seng, the chairman of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the KIA's political wing, went to Rangoon and met with Ne Win for peace talks. He asked the Burmese government for Kachin State autonomy with self-determination.

December 1980—The Burmese government rejected the KIO's demand for the inclusion of autonomous rights in the Constitution, saying the demands had not been accepted "by a vote of the people." Peace efforts broke down and fighting resumed.

July 1993—KIO delegates negotiated with Burmese military leaders over a ceasefire in KIA-controlled areas in Kachin State and Shan State. The KIO's major demand was regional development.

February 1994—The KIO signed a ceasefire agreement with the ruling military regime of the State Law and Order Restoration Council.

September 2010—The KIO formally rejected the Burmese government's Border Guard Force plan, which would subjugate the KIA under Burmese military command. The KIO called for the emergence of a genuine federal state. Naypyidaw subsequently forced the closure of KIA liaison offices in Kachin State.

September 2010—Burma's Election Commission rejected the registration of three Kachin political parties from running in the country's first national elections in 20 years, saying the party leaders were linked with the KIA.

May 2011—The KIO sent a letter to the Chinese government to withdraw its investment from a massive hydropower dam project in Kachin State, warning that local resentment against this project could spark a civil war.

June 9, 2011— Fighting erupted between KIO and Burma Army troops when government forces broke the ceasefire and attacked KIA positions along the Taping river east of Bhamo, Kachin State, near the Ta-pein hydropower plant.

September 15, 16 2011—The KIA clashed with troops from Infantry Battalion 37 and Light Infantry Battalion 438 in Winemaw Township. The fighting left two KIA soldiers dead and three others injured. There were no casualty figures for the Burmese side, but KIA troops who seized weapons after the attack said they saw around six dead bodies.

September 30, 2011—President Thein Sein informs Parliament that the Myitsone dam project would be suspended for the duration of his government because of widespread public opposition to the Chinese project. Weeks before, the KIA had blown up two key access bridges to the project site, effectively bringing it to a halt.

December 10, 2011—President Thein Sein announced that he had instructed the Burma Army on December 10 to cease its offensive against the KIA and only act in self-defense.

December 15, 2011—Burma's military begins using helicopters to move troops around, according to Kachin sources.

May 3, 2012—Amid escalating tensions in northernmost Burma, a government helicopter carrying weapons, ammunition and food to frontline troops reportedly started shelling several bases belonging to the KIO.

August 2012—KIO reported several clashes with Burma Army troops in Hpakant, Kachin State. The clashes reportedly drove people from more than 20 villages to take shelter in 23 churches, monasteries and relief centers in the town of Hpakant, sources say. Local residents estimate the number of refugees at around 6,000.

September 14, 2012—A schoolgirl was killed and at least five other children were injured by a stray artillery shell when two Burmese army units mistakenly exchanged fire with each other for nearly three hours on Thursday near the Kachin State jade mining town of Hpakant, according to local sources.

October 17, 2012—Two Kachin civilians were killed and another three were wounded by 81mm mortar shells when Burmese government troops based in Hpakant Township attacked the village of Maw Mau Bum with artillery fire earlier this week, according to Kachin sources.

December 9-10, 2012—Scores of Burmese soldiers were injured or killed during fighting in various locations controlled by KIA Brigades 1, 2 and 5.

December 28, 2012—Five jet fighters and two helicopters gunships launched heavy attacks against the KIA outposts in Lajayang region, about 11 kilometers from Laiza.

January 2, 2013—The Burmese government confirmed that it carried out airstrikes a few days earlier against the ethnic rebels in northern Kachin, in response to attacks by the KIA.

January 13, 2013—Without warning, the Burma Army fired artillery shells into the civilian neighborhoods of Laiza, killing three civilians and injuring four.

January 18, 2013—Immediately prior to the first international donor conference in Burma, President Thein Sein announced a unilateral ceasefire in the war between the army and the KIA, but heavy government attacks on KIA positions continued regardless.

February 4, 2013—Burmese government and the KIA meet in Ruili, China and agreed to reduce military tension in Kachin State and hold further peace talks later. The event marked the beginning of a significant reduction in fighting.

May 30, 2013—The Burmese government and KIA hold another meeting and say an agreement had been reached, but no ceasefire is signed.

June 24, 2013—Fresh hostilities between the government and ethnic Kachin rebels break out in the Mai Ja Yang region of Kachin State, the latest of more than 20 such flare ups between the two parties since peace talks concluded the previous month.

August 17, 2013—Clashes reportedly occurred between the government-backed Kachin Border Guard Force and the KIA in Kachin State.

November 18, 2013 — Fighting between the Burma Army and the KIA breaks out in southern Kachin State's Mansi Township, where fresh clashes displace about 2,000 villagers, according to Kachin aid groups.

February 13, 2014—Government troops held an operation that killed several Kachin troops and seized a KIA outpost near rebel headquarters in northern Burma.

April 21, 2014 — A week of fighting between KIA forces and the Burmese Army troops left more than 5,000 people displaced in eastern Kachin and neighboring Shan states, according to an aid group.

April 28, 2014—The KIO sent a letter to the Burmese government requesting a meeting on May 10 in order to lessen tensions between the sides.

May 13, 2014— The KIO and the Burmese government agreed to set up a peace monitoring commission during a ceasefire meeting in Myitkyina, Kachin State, but no ceasefire agreement is reached.

June 15, 2014—Fighting between the Burma Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), a KIA ally, intensifies in northern Shan State and hundreds of Palaung civilians are forced to flee. In the months before, the KIA and TNLA were increasingly working together, broadening their cooperation in northern Shan State, including with the Shan State Army-North and ethnic Kokang rebels.

June 26, 2014—Intense fighting between the Burmese military and the KIA reportedly killed at least four government soldiers.

July 18, 2014—The TNLA, a KIA ally, announced they had killed 178 Burma army soldiers in 2014 alone during escalation in northern Shan State, which is also home to Kachin minority villagers.

October 15, 2014—The Burma Army orders more than 1,000 civilians near the jade-mining town of Hpakant to vacate the area because growing tensions with the KIA.

November 16, 2014—Troops from the KIA clash with Burma army forces in eastern Kachin state.

November 19, 2014—The Burma Army fired artillery shells into a KIA training ground near Laiza, killing 22 cadets and injuring 15 others who were attending training at Hka Bhum base.

January 19, 2015—Two volunteer Kachin teachers, aged 20 and 21, from the Kachin Baptist Council (KBC) were raped and murdered in Kaung Kha, near the border town of Muse in Shan State, sparking a public outcry amid allegations of Burma Army involvement. The military denied involvement in the case. Autopsies were conducted and the KBC sent a letter to the president, asking him to hold the perpetrators accountable. The case remains unsolved.

March 31, 2015—The Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), of which the KIO is a member, signed an agreement with government negotiators on the draft text of a nationwide ceasefire accord in Rangoon.

June 8, 2015—On the eve of the fourth anniversary of the current conflict, 56 local and international civil society organizations call for an immediate end to Burma military offensives in northern Shan and Kachin States and an end to restrictions on humanitarian assistance to internally displaced persons camps in the area.

(Research by Ba Khaung, Thet Ko Ko, Kyaw Phyo Tha and Paul Vrieze) 

The post The Kachin Conflict: A Timeline appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘When Will We Go Home?’

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 10:02 PM PDT

Mary Tawn, co-founder and coordinator of local relief agency Wunpawng Ninghtoi, speaks to The Irrawaddy at her office in Mai Ja Yang, Kachin State, in early 2014. (Photo: Sai Zaw / The Irrawaddy)

Mary Tawn, co-founder and coordinator of local relief agency Wunpawng Ninghtoi, speaks to The Irrawaddy at her office in Mai Ja Yang, Kachin State, in early 2014. (Photo: Sai Zaw / The Irrawaddy)

June 9 will mark four years since a ceasefire broke down in Burma's northern Kachin State, ending 17 years of relative stability. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has joined peace negotiations with the Burmese government, but some 100,000 civilians who were displaced by the conflict have yet to return to their past lives. The Irrawaddy recently spoke about the current state of affairs with Mary Tawm, a Kachin aid worker who represents Wunpawng Ninghtoi (WPN), a homegrown organization providing assistance to those displaced by war.

What is the current situation like in camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs), four years after the conflict erupted?

The camps have faced a lot of difficulties during these years. Without any outside funding, a group of women with motherly instincts and a genuine desire to help the victims established Wunpawng Ninghtoi (WPN), which means "light for people," on June 14, 2011, just after the clashes broke out. Nearly one year after that, we still weren't getting major help from other organizations. We survived the first year by fundraising with music shows by Kachin artists and donations from our friends and from Kachin communities in other countries.

How many IDP camps do you run at present, and how many people do you support?

At present we run six IDP camps, providing shelter and humanitarian assistance to more than 10,000 people.

What kind of difficulties are Kachin IDPs facing at present, and how do they sustain their livelihoods?

This month marks the fourth year that they have been living in displacement camps. While clashes are still ongoing, the victims are receiving less and less humanitarian aid. Since the start of this year, they have only been getting rice and oil. They used to receive rations of rice, oil, and basic food items such as beans. They also no longer receive supplementary foods like potatoes, onion, pepper and dried fish, since the start of the year.

Most of the makeshift tents that they are living in are in urgent need of repair, as the monsoon season will soon be in full swing.

For livelihood, most IDPs rely on humanitarian aid. Some work as daily wage earners at sugar cane plantations and other farms nearby. But the number of working people is small. Most of the displaced are elderly people, children and students.

What kind of difficulties do students face, in particular?

[Our student hostel] is in desperate need of repair. The number of students has increased every year and we are very short of beds, daily use items and stationary. Most of the students don't have school uniforms. But the particularly serious problem is that students have only two meals a day.

How do you manage to offer assistance when rations are cut?

When rations were cut [early this year], we rented land for victims so that they can grow vegetables on a manageable scale for their own consumption. We provide them with seeds and agricultural tools. But that still can't meet all the needs of the victims. In case of emergency, we ask our friends, Kachin communities abroad and our partner organizations for help.

What kind of assistance do you offer for women who were affected by the conflict?

During the past four years, the number of female dropouts has risen because some girls are too shy to go to school. They are embarrassed because of their age, as they are too old to go to primary and middle school. Because the camps are close to the Chinese border, some girls want to work in China, and some get married at a young age, so we try to save some young women from being trafficked.

With limited funds and within a limited project period, we provide mothers with training in knitting, tailoring, weaving and baking, so they can take care of their children while working in the camp. We also provide some support for profitable farming.

What has life been like for these IDPs over the past four years?

They have led a hard life these past few years, and we passed those years together with them in sympathy. We have also shared some of their hardships.

There are some victims who do not want to live anymore because they have lost their loved ones. Thousands of students who should have graduated are now out of work and doing odd jobs.

Many elderly persons and some others are suffering from mental trauma, they feel hopeless. The number of students who no longer want to continue their education has increased. Whenever I talk to them they ask me the same thing: "When will we go home?" I'm always speechless and, in fact, I have been asking myself the same question.

The post 'When Will We Go Home?' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

India’s Modi Draws Flak for ‘Despite Being a Woman’ Comment About Bangladeshi PM

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 10:01 PM PDT

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses his supporters during a rally in Mathura, India, May 25, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses his supporters during a rally in Mathura, India, May 25, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

NEW DELHI — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sparked outrage after he praised his Bangladeshi counterpart for her courage to fight terrorism "despite being a woman," triggering an avalanche of criticism on social media site Twitter.

#DespiteBeingAWoman was one of the top trends on the micro blogging site on Monday, with users expressing anger at what they said was a bigoted and sexist remark and posting pictures of famous female scientists, politicians and athletes.

Modi, who was on a two-day official visit to neighboring Bangladesh, on Sunday told an audience at Dhaka University that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina showed that she was committed to ending terrorism which has plagued both South Asian nations.

"The world has still not found a solution on how to tackle terrorism. Even the UN is not in a position to provide guidance," said Modi.

"I am happy that the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, despite being a woman, is openly saying that she has zero tolerance for terrorism. I would like to congratulate Sheikh Hasina for her courage to deal with terrorism with zero tolerance," he added.

Twitter users went into a frenzy early on Monday as Modi's comments were picked up by local media, with many taking pot-shots at the Indian leader's remark.

"How can you even say or think #despitebeingawoman when your own country had a great female PM way before most first world countries! Shame!" tweeted a Mumbai-based fashion blogger from the twitter handle @Fashionopolis.

"Mentality of Men's supremacy remains in the mind of Men always to show down the woman with words like #DespiteBeingAWoman," tweeted user Panchal under the handle @NotNewToAny1.

Some users chose sarcasm to make their point.

"ok. off to work. after cooking sending kid to school to write big story and run errands. like every other woman i know #despitebeingawoman," tweeted Gayatri Jayaraman, senior editor at India Today.

Users also posted images of successful women—from former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, to civil rights campaigner Rosa Parks and education activist Malala Yousafzai to physicist Marie Curie—under the hashtag #DespiteBeingAWoman.

The post India's Modi Draws Flak for 'Despite Being a Woman' Comment About Bangladeshi PM appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Chea Sim, Leader in Post-Khmer Rouge Cambodia, Dies at 82

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 09:25 PM PDT

Cambodia's ruling party president Chea Sim, left, and Prime Minister Hun Sen at a ceremony to mark the 20th anniversary of the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge in 1999. (Photo: Darren Whiteside / Reuters)

Cambodia’s ruling party president Chea Sim, left, and Prime Minister Hun Sen at a ceremony to mark the 20th anniversary of the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge in 1999. (Photo: Darren Whiteside / Reuters)

PHNOM PENH — Chea Sim, a key Cambodian political figure after the fall of the brutal Khmer Rouge regime and an ally of the current leader, died on Monday, an official said.

He was 82 and had high blood pressure, diabetes and other chronic ailments. His death was confirmed by the head of his bodyguard unit, Yim Leang, who did not give the cause of death.

Chea Sim was president of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party since it was formed in 1991, and was president of the Senate since 1999. He became a revolutionary in the 1950s and like Prime Minister Hun Sen was a member of the communist Khmer Rouge when it seized power in 1975 after a civil war. Both men fled the group to join a resistance faction groomed by neighboring Vietnam, which installed them as Cambodia’s new leaders after ousting the Khmer Rouge in 1979.

Chea Sim’s image is seen on billboards around the country promoting the ruling party, but his actual power over the past decade was considered negligible, as Hun Sen consolidated his own power base. In April, when Chea Sim’s health was deteriorating, Hun Sen—two decades younger—said that he would take over as party leader when Chea Sim passed away.

The two men were political allies but also rivals, and in the 1990s Chea Sim led a ruling party faction that tentatively challenged Hun Sen’s grip on power. But Hun Sen, one of Southeast Asia’s most wily and ruthless politicians, kept Chea Sim at bay, outmaneuvering him as he did opposition politicians and even the late King Norodom Sihanouk.

An open break came in 2004, when they disagreed over changing the constitution to allow an opposition party to join the Cambodian People’s Party in a coalition government. When Chea Sim as acting head of state refused to sign off on the change, Hun Sen pushed it through by forcing Chea Sim to temporarily leave the country. The show of power marked the decline of Chea Sim’s faction.

Born Nov. 15, 1932, to a peasant family in eastern Cambodia’s Svay Rieng province, Chea Sim joined the revolutionary movement against colonial France in the early 1950s, and was a cadre of the communist Khmer Rouge by the time it ousted a pro-American government in 1975. His timely defection to the Vietnam-based anti-Khmer Rouge movement led to positions in the new Vietnamese-sponsored party and government that Hanoi installed after invading Cambodia and ousting the Khmer Rouge in 1979.

Chea Sim was a senior figure by the time negotiations took place that resulted in the 1991 Paris Peace Accord, which brokered a deal supposed to end three decades of civil war and paved the way for UN-organized elections in 1993. Although a royalist party topped the polls, Hun Sen insisted that it share power with his Cambodian People’s Party, and four years later seized sole power for his party.

Long Demanche, spokesman for Phnom Penh City Hall, said it had been instructed to organize a cremation ceremony at a park near the Royal Palace, with the ceremony to be treated as one for a head of state due to Chea Sim’s position as Senate president. He said no date had been set for the ceremony.

The post Chea Sim, Leader in Post-Khmer Rouge Cambodia, Dies at 82 appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Indonesian Nationalists Challenge Plans to Scrap Fuel Subsidies

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 09:20 PM PDT

An employee at a Total fuel station fills up a motorcycle in south Jakarta. (Photo: Darren Whiteside / Reuters)

An employee at a Total fuel station fills up a motorcycle in south Jakarta. (Photo: Darren Whiteside / Reuters)

PALEMBANG, Indonesia — Indonesia’s second-largest Muslim group plans to file a lawsuit challenging a decision by President Joko Widodo to scrap $20 billion worth of government fuel subsidies in his most radical reform since taking office last October.

The action by Muhammadiyah, a nationalist movement with about 30 million members, is the next step in what it calls a “constitutional jihad” that has successfully dealt legal blows to private participation in the oil, gas and water sectors.

The group’s “jihad” may seem outlandish and doomed to fail in a country where few question the free-market economy, yet its citizen activism has already overturned two laws.

The situation underscores the balance Widodo needs to strike in trying to attract much-needed foreign investment, while satisfying an electorate demanding more populist policies.

“There are so many economic policies in Indonesia going in the wrong direction,” Syafruddin Anhar, head of the group’s economic committee, told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Palembang, in South Sumatra.

“Some policies are too friendly to foreign investors, giving them a chance to take everything in Indonesia.”

He gave the examples of the mining and energy industries, but did not identify specific companies.

Muhammadiyah plans to file a lawsuit in the next few months in the Constitutional Court, which is empowered to carry out constitutional reviews of legislation, challenging Widodo’s decision to abandon costly gasoline subsidies for rates based on the global market price.

Widodo took the unprecedented step on subsidies at the beginning of this year, aiming to free up funds for infrastructure and farm projects.

Government officials defended their policies, but warned that the prospect of a lawsuit could alarm investors.

“It may scare investors. It may create uncertainty,” the vice president’s economic adviser, Wijayanto Samirin, said on the sidelines of the conference.

Last week, Muhammadiyah officials met the president and vice president to discuss the group’s concerns.

Muhammadiyah, which runs thousands of schools, hospitals, and small businesses, has identified more than 100 laws it believes violate a constitutional tenet for the state to control natural resources for the benefit of all Indonesians.

In two previous campaigns, the group has shown it can force changes in government policy.

In 2012, Muhammadiyah succeeded in crimping the government’s ability to sign contracts with private companies in the energy industry.

This year, in a case brought by Muhammadiyah, the constitutional court axed a rule allowing water permits to the private sector. That decision plunged into uncertainty businesses from textiles to beverage bottling.

The post Indonesian Nationalists Challenge Plans to Scrap Fuel Subsidies appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


Fresh blow to ceasefire prospects

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:35 PM PDT

Leaders of ethnic armed groups meeting in Kayin State have dealt a heavy blow to government hopes of signing at least a partial nationwide ceasefire agreement before the elections.

Repatriations begin as MPs wade into migrant crisis

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:26 PM PDT

Rights groups raise concerns that some rescued migrants may be incorrectly sent to Bangladesh.


Speaker rejects foreign pressure

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:25 PM PDT

U Khin Aung Myint, Speaker of the upper house, yesterday told parliamentarians how he had rejected suggestions from an Australian politician that Myanmar should take in more than 20,000 boat migrants, saying the people of Myanmar would not accept them.

Students threaten to sue police over Letpadan crackdown

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:24 PM PDT

The All Burma Federation of Student Unions says it is planning to take legal action against police responsible for the brutal crackdown on demonstrators in Letpadan on March 10 and will involve the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission in the process.

Ministry suspends controversial Yangon tender

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:22 PM PDT

The Ministry of Information has stopped selling application forms for a controversial tender, following a motion in parliament to suspend the tender process.

Yangon hluttaw to debate halted property projects

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:18 PM PDT

The Yangon Region parliament will discuss controversial suspended property developments near Shwe-dagon Pagoda during a session that will get under way today, a prominent MP says.

Informal residents may be eligible to vote

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:17 PM PDT

Squatters in Yangon and Mandalay and other big cities may be able to vote in the November election, electoral officials have suggested.

Election commission boss complains over lack of funds

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:13 PM PDT

U Tin Aye says the commission will "do our best" to hold the election, despite lack of funds and trained staff.


Final two seats get MCDC representatives

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:11 PM PDT

Representatives have finally been chosen for the last two elected seats on Mandalay City Development Committee.

JICA to fund water meters in Mandalay

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 08:06 PM PDT

Nearly 50,000 people in Mandalay will receive piped water following the installation of water meters in five wards, according to officials.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Ethnic negotiation team: Door to peaceful resolution opened

Posted: 09 Jun 2015 12:11 AM PDT

The 19 month old Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), set up by the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) at the Kachin base of Laiza in November 2013, says its 17 month negotiations with the government, has resulted in opening the door for resolution by political means to the 60 plus year old armed conflicts.

Karen National Union (KNU) then General Secretary Zipporah Sein (R) speaks to reporters after meeting with Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi (front L) at Suu Kyi's home in Rangoon, April 8, 2012.
Karen National Union (KNU) then General Secretary Zipporah Sein (R) speaks to reporters after meeting with Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi (front L) at Suu Kyi's home in Rangoon, April 8, 2012.
The report was submitted by NCCT leader Nai Hongsa aka Nai Hantha at the EAO summit held at the Karen base of Law Khee Lar on 2 June, the first day of its 8-day marathon conference.

Apart from it, other happy outcomes include:
  • Hopes for peace and the emergence of a federal union
  • Alternative means to amending the constitution inside parliament
  • Demonstration of the armed resistance movements' "unity, maturity and political foresight both to the people of Burma and the rest of the world"
  • Build-up of mutual trust first and understanding between the two sides

"The NCCT has also managed to produce these results without compromising the political principles laid down by the (first) Law Khee Lar conference," he said.

The principles set out by the first Law Khee Lar, January 2014, include:
  • Emergence of a Genuine Federal Union
  • Insertion of the word Taw-HLan-Ye (meaning either Resistance or Revolution in Burmese) in the text
  • Use of "Union Peace Convention" for the conference that will follow political dialogues among stakeholders
  • Removal of the phrase "Except for issues detrimental to" (the Three National Causes upheld by the government, i.e. Non-disintegration of the Union, Non-disintegration of National Solidarity, and Perpetuation of National Sovereignty)
  • Proportional participation of three parties in the political dialogue: Government, ethnic armed resistance movements and registered political parties as well as suitable democratic forces
  • To replace national level political dialogues with national level and nationalities level political dialogues
  • Inclusions of interim arrangements in the NCA
  • Proposition of signatory witnesses to the NCA in addition to UN and China
  • All inclusiveness in the NCA signing

The peace process nevertheless faces several challenges, "as the completion of the NCA is only the first step," said Nai Hongsa. Needs include:
  • Better cooperation within and among EAOs
  • Study in the art of compromise and negotiation
  • Financial support
  • Human resources
  • Timely decisions
The conference, according to the media, has appointed a new 15 person coordination team headed by Karen National Union (KNU) Vice Chairwoman Zipporah Sein to negotiate with the government for a 15 point amendment proposition on the NCA text, as put forward by the conference. It has also decided to keep the NCCT as it is, said the sources.

"Its tenure was supposed to have ended with its report to the Summit," said a Karen source. "But some say it will end only after the signing of the NCA."

In the aftermath of Law Khee Lar Summit, Peace Process looks dim

Posted: 08 Jun 2015 09:21 PM PDT

With the Law Khee Lar Summit Meeting of Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)' leaders, from 2 to 9 June, coming to an end, the question arises whether the much awaited Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) could be signed according to the liking and timing of Thein Sein regime anytime soon.

Law Khee Lar Meeting has come up with the resolution of all-inclusive signing of the NCA; amendment of the 5th NCA Draft of 31 March; and formation of a new negotiation team to replace the old Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT).

The regime is said to be pegged to the acceptance of its 16  EAOs that have signed ceasefire, except for the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) that has not signed but taken as a negotiation partner.
The EAOs leadership, on the other hand, wouldn't budge from insisting that all of its 16 NCCT members must be included in the NCA ratification, of which three, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as Kokang group, Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army (AA), are rejected and not recognized as negotiation partners by the government.

According to DVB, on 8 June, Min Zaw Oo of Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) said, it would be hard to accept the said three EAOs, for from the regime's point of view, they are newly formed groups; and especially the MNDAA for getting stronger starting 2012 by militarily beefing up its forces. The government might think it is being pressured by military means to be accepted as negotiation partner. He said, as the government still adheres to its 16 designated EAOs, if groups like Kokang will participate, it is going to be difficult to proceed.

Another point is the alteration of NCA by the EAOs, which means there would be more discussions and negotiations that the government could ill afford, for time is running out, with the national elections approaching fast and scheduled to be held in November.

It is clear that the regime wants to cash in by signing the NCA as soon as possible, which would make the regime's party looks good during the election campaigns and also benefits from international humanitarian and development aid programs, promised by the donors, once the NCA is signed. The UN special representative Vijay Nambiar was delivering exactly this kind of message, when he urged the conference participants to sign the NCA, so that aids could be channeled. If the signing is delayed, the UN might reconsider its affirmative position, he said.

Then there is a pressing issue on disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) and security sector reform (SSR). The regime, or better the military, prefers DDR, which the EAOs consider to be "negotiated surrender", while the EAOs are for SSR, which the military believes to be destroying its Burman-dominated military apparatus, by integrating the ethnic armed forces into the Burma Army on equal status.

On top of that, the new EAOs negotiation team, which is to be the counterpart of Union Peace-making Work Committee (UPWC),  is made up of a more hawkish individuals that won't give in easily to the regime's pressure. Naw Zipporah Sein, who would head the newly formed team, has often been at odds with the Karen National Union (KNU) Chairman Mutu Say Poe for his regime's friendly policy posture and implementation.

Under such circumstances, it is hard to imagine that the future negotiations, if there is going to be any, between the EAOs and the regime will be a smooth one, given so much disagreement and differing positions on how to go about to achieve a compromised, desired outcomes, that all could identify and be happy with.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor