Saturday, December 12, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Dateline Irrawaddy: ‘It Is Not Enough for Elites Simply to Get Along’

Posted: 11 Dec 2015 07:38 PM PST

Political analyst Yan Myo Thein and 88 Generation member Mya Aye join this week's edition of Dateline Irrawaddy. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Political analyst Yan Myo Thein and 88 Generation member Mya Aye join this week's edition of Dateline Irrawaddy. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Kyaw Zwa Moe: Welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy. This week we'll look at why ex-military leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe has resurfaced, and if his meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi signals a positive sign for the country or unexpected political turns. Ko Mya Aye, one of the leaders of the 88 Generation Peace and Open Society, and political commentator Dr. Yan Myo Thein will join me for the discussion. I'm Kyaw Zwa Moe, editor of The Irrawaddy's English edition.

U Than Shwe hadn't appeared in public in five years, since he transferred power to U Thein Sein. Why has he decided to resurface now? What is your view, Ko Mya Aye?

Mya Aye: Politics, as I understand it, is about power. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's power was clearly proven through the election results. But Myanmar will not, all of a sudden, be able to enjoy democracy simply because the NLD won the election. This is because the election was held under 2008 Constitution, which was adopted from the military's seven-point roadmap [which enshrines power to the institution]. So if [Suu Kyi] wants to move toward national reconciliation in the current political landscape, she has no choice other than to see Snr-Gen Than Shwe, one of its chief architects. Daw Aung Suu Kyi has built up power and has requested to meet with former Snr-Gen Than Shwe, and he has granted it.

KZM: Ko Yan Myo Thein?

Yan Myo Thein: Although former Snr-Gen Than Shwe only now seems to be resurfacing, he has actually been wielding great influence over the current government as well as the military the entire time. Again, the civil-military relationship plays an extremely important role in Myanmar's democratic transition. Indeed, according to this logic, the recent dialogue between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and current military chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was also key. At least to an extent, her meeting with them was so important because it is reasonable to assume that former Snr-Gen still exerts influence over the current one.

KZM: We heard that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi herself requested to meet former Snr-Gen Than Shwe. It is important that the transition period is smooth, and here the military plays a major role, as Ko Yan Myo Thein has said. Snr-Gen Than Shwe is the one who, at present, has the largest influence over the military, and that's the main reason why [Suu Kyi] requested the meeting. Because the next government will be a purely civilian one, led by the NLD, perhaps former Snr-Gen Than Shwe wants something besides a smooth transition—perhaps he also wants a verbal guarantee that [punitive] actions will not be taken retrospectively, as laid out in the Constitution.

MA: It is totally correct that a good civil-military relationship has to be built. But the nature of the military should be understood as well. I think we need to try to understand it. The military has its interests. Not only our country, but most third world countries have this tendency.

KZM: The 2008 Constitution, according to the seven-step roadmap, was ratified in 2008. The election was held in 2010, and power was transferred in 2011. Everyone suggests that this was Snr-Gen Than Shwe's exit strategy. But this isn't over, since the NLD won the election. If the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) had won 26 percent of the seats, it could have formed the government together with the 25 percent of [constitutionally guaranteed] military appointees. Had this happened, U Than Shwe would not have resurfaced, for sure. But because the exact opposite played out in reality, U Than Shwe has had to try to come up with another exit strategy.

YMT: I wouldn't call this an exit strategy. Rather, I'd describe this in terms of containment theory. This is an attempt to contain Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The core of the seven-step political roadmap is the 2008 Constitution, which has put Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in a political straightjacket. Under the Constitution, NLD lawmakers got into Parliament through the 2012 by-election. So I think between 2010 and now their strategy was hinged primarily on the Constitution. But they needed to re-adjust their strategy in light of the November election results. Since the election former Snr-Gen Than Shwe, the linchpin in this entire strategy, has had to resurface to try to fix the situation as best as he can, perhaps because they intend to retain the power. The next government will be a civilian government, but because of the 2008 Constitution, the military will still hold important positions in the government.

KZM: Everyone, including Snr-Gen Than Shwe, must accept that the election results represent the will of people. The results clearly signal that the people have chosen Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and leaders must accept this. So I don't think it [the military] will be able to hold onto power too much longer. The real question is if the meeting, whatever reason was behind it, will be a positive sign for our country. It seems that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi willingly requested to meet him [former Snr-Gen Than Shwe] because he is a key player. So Ko Mya Aye, what positive changes might the meeting bring? Or will it lead to a limbo of sorts?

MA: In an interview, Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing specifically talked about the charter amendment. He said, firmly, that when armed conflict ends and when there is peace and stability in the country, the requirement for 25 percent military representation in Parliament, or Article 436, will be re-considered. Military leaders, including former Snr-Gen Than Shwe, do have interests. But we need to see beyond those interests. Some might have their own political beliefs. Here I don't want to talk about which belief is right and which is wrong. What I want to stress is that there might be different beliefs, and we need to see this.

KZM: You mean there might be different views within the military?

MA: Yes. Anyway, former Snr-Gen Than Shwe met with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi because she can build power through the election results. As Ko Kyaw Zwa said, if the USDP had won the election, this meeting would not have happened. Snr-Gen Than Shwe has only offered to meet with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi since the Saffron Revolution. Before that, he would only see her when he wanted to, and he would have never granted a request by her to meet with him. Now, however, he has said that he will acknowledge her as the leader chosen by the people. It seems to be constructive. Anyway, I think it is a positive sign for the country. But I want to warn of one thing: It is not enough for elites simply to get along. They also need to consider the people.

KZM: Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has repeatedly said that she would not hold any grudges and that she would form the next government with the goal of national reconciliation. If she can firmly guarantee this, the Constitution might be able to be changed, at least to an extent, for example, Article 59(f) might be changed within three, four months, though the 25 percent military block will be kept unchanged. What do you think?

YMT: At best, during the next Parliament term, I think we can hope for a slight addition to Article 59(f), rather than a complete overhaul.

KZM: For Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to become president—

YMT: Yes, we can hope for the best, that the way may be paved for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to become president by at least by some small addition rather than by amending the entire provision. But it's also important to note that what we are discussing now is not based on an official statement [of what was talked about between Suu Kyi and Than Shwe]. I think the NLD should release a statement about the meeting as soon as possible. Only then will we have a clearer idea of how the topic of the meeting might factor into the future of politics for this country. Again, I don't think that we'll see change just because two people met and may have reached some sort of agreement. The Panglong Agreement, for instance, was signed before Burma gained independence. But despite this, our country failed to establish any semblance of a federal, democratic union, and it is still stuck in seemingly intractable political mire today. The most important thing is that a political pact must be achieved during the transition period, and it must take place in the presence of both the people [of Burma] and the international community.

KZM: I think it is still too early. They've met only once and only for two hours. The real dialogue is yet to come, though the initial phase of any dialogue is very delicate.

YMT: [Suu Kyi] met Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing for an hour, and President U Thein Sein for 45 minutes. The meeting with Snr-Gen Than Shwe lasted longer than the combined time of the other two meetings.

KZM: Still, he [Than Shwe] has no official title now. That meeting was more informal than the other two, though he has a larger influence. As you said, bilateral discussion is not enough. Even so, given the circumstances, dialogue should not be all-inclusive at this time, should it, Ko Mya Aye?

MA: It is typical for dialogue to start with a few participants and then for the number to grow over time. We can look at this meeting as the beginning of the civil-military relationship. However, this is not the main focus for our country. Taking into consideration interviews with Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, the real focus is the peace process. When the next government comes to power [in March], should it be a civilian government, all actors have to act within the framework of the 2008 Constitution.

KZM: Let's take an optimistic view. There may be more meetings between former Snr-Gen Than Shwe and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. If things turn out to be very positive, and if the military gradually withdraws from politics and focuses on national defense, I think the Constitution could be changed quickly.

MA: As I have said, [Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing] has stated before that the military will retreat when there is internal peace and stability [in Burma].

YMT: I share this view. But I don't think the path taken by the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) will lead to peace. We need to change course. In discussing the framework for political dialogue and selecting representatives for this dialogue, the people need truer representation, I think.

KZM: We've discussed whether, going forward, the meeting between former Snr-Gen Than Shwe and Daw Aung Sann Suu Kyi might play an important role in Burma's transition. We'll have to wait and see if these results will turn out to be positive. Thank you both for your contributions.

The post Dateline Irrawaddy: 'It Is Not Enough for Elites Simply to Get Along' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Parliament Gets Mixed Scores for Performance as End of Term Nears

Posted: 11 Dec 2015 07:29 PM PST

Lawmakers wait for a bus after a Union Parliament meeting in front of the legislative complex in Naypyidaw on August 22, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

Lawmakers wait for a bus after a Union Parliament meeting in front of the legislative complex in Naypyidaw on August 22, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — When Burma's current Parliament first convened in 2011 following a flawed general election the year prior, most observers and opposition members expected it to be a rubber stamp for the army and the newly installed quasi-civilian government of ex-generals.

As with so much of Burma's democratic transition, its performance has been a surprise. Lawmakers soon began to actively debate, amend and pass numerous laws, and when several dozen National League for Democracy (NLD) MPs, including Aung San Suu Kyi, joined the legislature following by-elections in 2012, debate was further enlivened.

As Parliament enters its last two months in office, we asked lawmakers and political activists to weigh the legacy of its 2011-16 term. Most said great strides had been taken in reforming and replacing junta-era laws governing economics, business and labor rights, along with a range of other issues.

Critics said, however, that some important new legislation, around land rights and education reform, falls short, while repressive laws remain on the books. The passage of four nationalist "race and religion" laws, they added, remains a dark stain on Parliament's record.

AN ACTIVE PARLIAMENT

According to Khun T Myat, a Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) member and chairman of the Union Parliament's Bill Committee, more than 200 laws have now been amended, passed or revoked. Another 40 laws and bills, he added, are still being scrutinized as MPs—many of whom lost their seats in the Nov. 8 election—continue to legislate until Jan. 30. The opposition NLD won the vote by a landslide.

Lower House USDP member Tin Maung Oo said Parliament had needed some time to find its feet but became more effective from 2013 onward, in part due to the efforts of Parliament Speaker Shwe Mann, who was USDP chairman until August when he lost that post in an internal leadership purge.

During the course of their term, Tin Maung Oo said lawmakers examined government budgets more closely, initiated reforms to junta-era laws and began to draft bills. He added, however, that individual MPs had limited success in proposing new laws, most of which still came from President Thein Sein's quasi-civilian government.

"Government agencies took the upper hand with their bills, but the bills of MPs focused on the public interest," he said.

Min Khin, a member of the NLD's economic committee, said the next Parliament needed to focus on existing laws being correctly implemented.

"It's not so urgent that you have to enact a lot of new laws. The country can continue with the current laws. What's really needed is for the existing laws to be enforced," he said.

ECONOMIC AND LABOR LAW REFORMS

Important economic reforms initiated by the government and passed by Parliament since 2011 include a new Foreign Direct Investment Law, a Special Economic Zone Law and legislative changes that allowed for foreign investment in telecoms and oil and gas, and for the Central Bank to implement independent monetary policy.

Labor reform laws were passed that allowed—for the first time since junta rule—unionization; the laws also stipulated labor dispute resolution mechanisms and set a minimum wage. Two of these bills originated in Parliament.

The NLD's Min Khin said the foreign investment law had the most impact as international investors waited for the law to be passed before they entered Burma. However, it is too early to say that the law has made a significant impact, he added.

"There is still weakness when it comes to scrutinizing government expenses and revenues," he said, referring to the budget law.

Thein Nyunt, a Lower House MP for the New National Democracy Party, was critical of labor law reforms, however, saying they did not go far enough.

"Existing labor laws are found to favor employers. For example, the labor laws stipulate only a cash fine for any employer who breaches the rules and regulations," he said. "So the employers do not take these laws so seriously. The cash fine should be substituted with a prison term."

Independent labor activist Zaw Yan said the new NLD government should carry out further labor rights reforms, noting that labor unrest had continued in recent years despite the new laws.

MPs praised Parliament's tax reforms for raising government revenues, adding that an Anti-Corruption Law was a good step toward battling pervasive graft, though its implementation falls short.

"The Anti-Corruption Law is very good, but enforcement is required—practical law enforcement measures are still weak on the government side," said Thein Nyunt.

LOW MARKS ON EDUCATION, LAND, PEACEFUL ASSEMBLY

USDP MPs also initiated and passed two laws governing land—the Farmland Law and the Vacant, Fallow and Virgin Lands Management Law.

In recent years, as Burma's economic growth has accelerated, disputes between local communities and companies over natural resources, and in particular land, have become more common, while old grievances over land forcibly seized by the junta have resurfaced.

Parliament set up a committee inviting complaints about past land grabs and received 14,499 complaints between Nov. 11, 2013, and May 15, 2015. By that time, The Irrawaddy reported, the committee had handled 7,697 of them and 6,802 remained unresolved. A new National Land Use Policy is being drafted, and adopting it will be an important task for the new Parliament.

Ba Myo Thein, an incoming Upper House NLD MP, said the current Parliament had failed to address this important issue, as existing land laws were flawed and did little to protect the rights of farmers if they come up against the interests of well-connected companies.

"In the Farmland Law, it can easily be seen that it was intended to benefit a certain class of people and a certain group. Actually, the law should be helpful for the farmers as the economy of our country is based on agriculture," he said.

Lower House NLD MP Min Thu said Parliament failed to make enough progress in amending junta-era repressive laws, and when it did sometimes the efforts fell short. Reforms to the Peaceful Assembly Law in 2014, for example, had done little to improve people's freedom of expression and freedom of assembly, he said.

In recent years, hundreds of people have been imprisoned or are facing trial under the Peaceful Assembly Law, after a growing number of communities and activists expressed their demands over issues such as land rights and education reform. Many ignored the law's requirement to seek prior government permission for protests and subsequently faced police charges.

Parliamentary approval in September 2014 of the controversial National Education Law sparked nationwide protests by student activists. They felt the law did not sufficiently guarantee higher education institutions' independence from the government.

Some 50 students remain behind bars after a police crackdown on a student protest in March of this year. Myat Thu, a student activist who is being sought by authorities, told Myanmar Now in a Facebook message that some USDP parliamentarians had betrayed the students.

"The government and MPs of the ruling party breached their promises made during negotiations with protesting students," he said. "They were detained and the old [National Education Law] was just polished up—they re-enacted the law that neglects the demands of students. They made fools of the students."

RACE AND RELIGION LAWS LEGACY

Perhaps the most controversial actions by Parliament concern the passage of the four race and religion laws, which were advocated by the radical nationalist Buddhist monk movement Ma Ba Tha.

Human rights groups said the laws discriminate against Burma's Muslim minority and undermine women's rights. The NLD fought in vain against passage of the laws, which were swiftly passed by the USDP majority and the military officers who control a quarter of Parliament.

Win Htain, Yangon Division representative from the National Unity Party (NUP), said the USDP had used the laws to try to whip up nationalism ahead of the election in an effort to boost its popularity, but now the country is stuck with the divisive legislation.

Min Thu, of the NLD, said a new NLD-dominated Parliament would have to carefully consider its options when it comes to the future of the race and religion laws.

"These laws should not have been debated in Parliament, but we had to accept the decision of the [USDP] majority," he said, adding that the new Parliament "will have to listen to the voice of the public" to decide whether the laws should be amended or kept.

This story originally appeared on Myanmar Now.

The post Parliament Gets Mixed Scores for Performance as End of Term Nears appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (Dec. 12, 2015)

Posted: 11 Dec 2015 07:22 PM PST

Global sports brand Adidas says it is looking at expanding its Burma sourcing to offset rising labor costs elsewhere in Asia. (Photo: Michaela Rehle / Reuters)

Global sports brand Adidas says it is looking at expanding its Burma sourcing to offset rising labor costs elsewhere in Asia. (Photo: Michaela Rehle / Reuters)

Adidas Plans to Source More Shoes from Burma

German sportswear and shoe giant Adidas is planning to ramp up sourcing from Burma as it struggles to with the rising cost of materials and rising wages in other sourcing destinations like China, according to comments reported by Reuters.

The newswire quoted Adidas head of global sourcing John McNamara in an article looking at the brand's plans to cope with shrinking profit margins. He said he expected labor costs to rise by 11-15 percent each year across the countries from where Adidas sources its products, while the prices of cotton and nylon were also rising.

In response, McNamara was quoted saying, Adidas will source less from more expensive Chinese factories, while increasing orders to manufacturers in the cheaper labor markets of Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia and Burma.

"We see Myanmar as one of the last great sourcing markets for our type of product," he said, predicting that 4 percent of Adidas's shoe production would be in Burma by 2020.

Adidas announced in February this year that it would begin sourcing from Burma, following several other major brands that have entered the country following the relaxation of sanctions.

According to Adidas's most recent supplier list published online, the brand sources from just one factory in Rangoon, owned by Shyang Jhuo Yue Co. Ltd. But Taiwanese manufacturer Pou Chen in October reportedly discussed plans to open a factory in Rangoon that would employ 10,000 workers and produce shoes for Adidas.

Deal Signed on $300M Mandalay Gas Power Plant 

Singapore's Sembcorp Utilities will invest in and develop a 225-megawatt gas-fired power plant in Mandalay Division after it signed a memorandum of agreement with the Burmese government this week.

The company is part of the conglomerate Semcorp Industries, which is involved in the energy, water and marine sectors. Sembcorp Utilities was awarded the tender to develop the power plant in Myingyan in April.

The group's executive vice president and head of business development and commercial, Tan Cheng Guan, on Monday signed the agreement with the Burmese government's Department of Electric Power Planning director general Khin Maung Win, according to a statement.

The World Bank Group's International Finance Corporation is considering financing the project to the tune of $45 million.

Sembcorp takes an 80 percent stake in the $300 million project, with local partner MMID Utilities taking the remaining shares.

MMID Utilities is a Singapore-incorporated company about which little information is publicly available. It appears to be part of Mandalay Myotha Industrial Development, a group that operates Mandalay's main industrial zone and is also developing a a new industrial park and port.

According to its website, the group is chaired by Royal Hi-Tech Group founder Aung Win Khaing, a Burmese citizen of originally from the Kokang region.

Sembcorp claims the Myingyan plant will be Burma's biggest gas power station. It is expected to power the government-owned Myingyan steel mill using gas from the Sino-Burmese natural gas pipeline. The plant is expected to begin operating in 2018, and will supply power to the state-run Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise through a power purchase agreement that will run for 22 years.

Hong Kong Company Signs Deals for Fast-Track Gas Power

 While the Myingyan steel mill waits for its new permanent source of power (see above), the government has contracted a Hong Kong-based firm to provide a short term solution.

VPower Group announced this week that it will build a "fast-track" power plant plant close to the mill in Mandalay Division, as well as ramping up its output at another facility in Arakan State.

In a press statement, VPower said it had signed two new contracts with Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise to set up gas-powered installations that will each provide power to the grid for five years.

"The 133MW power installation in Myingyan will power the state-owned steel mill," the statement said. "Securing a reliable supply of electricity is key to operating the electric arc furnace economically. This latest power plant will take into account the voltage fluctuations and a first technical challenge of its kind for VPower. It will also connect directly to the existing 230kV lines located close to the mill."

VPower said it previously established a 45MW power plant in Kyaukphyu, Arakan State, that was brought online in just 120 days. Under a new agreement, it will double to size of that installation.

"Both distributed power projects will be constructed in parallel and is set to going into operation in March 2016," it said. "Running on natural gas, the two plants will have the advantage of much lower emissions and better efficiency than that of traditional fuels, and will stand out as the more cost-effective power solution."

Land Leads Business and Human Rights Concerns

Land has been identified as the top business and human rights issue for Burma in 2016, according to a survey, which also noted the importance of the climate for human rights defenders and public participation in business.

A press statement from the Myanmar Center for Responsible Business said that an online survey of "Myanmar-connected stakeholders" identified the three areas as part of a global survey by the Institute for Human Rights and Business released to coincide with International Human Rights Day on Thursday.

Among the three issues identified as important for Burma in the coming year, "Land leads the list," the statement said.

"Myanmar is still coming to terms with opaque land practices that characterised the pre-2011 military government for decades," it said.

"Since then, some abuses have been remedied, but many others remain. A draft Land Use Policy discussed in 2014-2015 is still to be adopted, and once it is, new and revised laws will be needed. These will have to address legal and governance gaps in Myanmar on complex and sensitive issues such as resettlement and indigenous peoples."

The survey also highlighted the harassment and arrest of land rights activists, among other human rights defenders, as a key concern, it said.

Finally, the poll said that with a new National League for Democracy-led government set to take power next year, the country was faced with "a range of challenges and opportunities" to strengthen public participation in responsible business.

"The draft environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures, for example, should make public engagement and full disclosure of information compulsory in many projects; however, they have yet to be promulgated," it said. "Civil society also needs support to hold companies to account, and ensure that development strategies benefit local communities."

Texan Firm Buys into Burmese Booze Business

TPG Capital, a Fort Worth-based private equity group formerly known as Texas Pacific Group, has bought a 50 percent stake in Myanmar Distillery Company, according to a report.

The report from the Wall Street Journal, said that the American company had paid somewhere between $100 million and $200 million last month to "international investors" for half of the Burmese alcoholic beverage producer.

Myanmar Distillery Company is part of the International Beverages Trading Company Limited, and produces the local "Grand Royal" whiskey brands, "Royal Dry Gin" and the "Jazz" range of wine coolers at its plants in Rangoon and Mandalay.

The Wall Street Journal also said that Diageo, the world's largest maker of spirits, had "explored the possibility of buying Myanmar Distillery last year but decided against it due to worries about compliance and the regulatory environment," citing a person familiar with the matter. The report added that Paul Walsh, Diageo's former CEO would be the co-chairman of Myanmar Distillery's board.

The post The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (Dec. 12, 2015) appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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