Monday, September 25, 2017

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy

The Irrawaddy Magazine

‘Our Top Priority is to Achieve Peace’

Posted: 25 Sep 2017 07:31 AM PDT

Kachin State chief minister Dr. Khet Aung recently sat down with The Irrawaddy's Nan Lwin Hnin Pwint and talked about his government's undertakings and plans for this term, as well as the controversial China-backed Myitsone Dam project.

What has the state government done for Kachin State over past 18 months since it took office?

Mainly, we concentrated on infrastructural development such as building bridges, roads, power stations and the electricity supply. We were able to electrify some 200 villages with the 2016-17 fiscal year budget. And we also upgraded the Sumprabum section of the Union Highway. Previously, the road was only accessible by foot, and even motorbikes could not drive on it in the rainy season. This year, cars can use it in the rainy season.

What are the top priorities of your government since it assumed office?

The State Counselor is organizing the 21st Century Panglong peace conference. Our top priority is to achieve peace. Our second priority is to fight drugs. It is critical that we fight drugs nationwide. I visited Bhamo Prison and asked the warden about the number of prisoners and their crimes. He said there were 1,493 prisoners and more than 1,200 were imprisoned on drug charges. This is not a good sign.

I also visited Myitkyina Prison. There were more than 3,200 prisoners with more than 2,800 imprisoned on drug charges. Recently, I also visited Mohnyin, and the township administrative department said that the prison was only recently built but already full of inmates, and 90 percent of them are imprisoned on drug charges.

Drugs are an acute problem not only in Kachin State but also across the entire country. It is a real cause for concern. We are fighting it the best we can. When I went to Mohnyin, we seized more than 300 million kyats worth of drugs.

In previous years, community-based anti-drug group Pat Jasan launched anti-narcotics campaigns in the state. But there was fierce resistance from poppy growers, and their activities ceased after growers started firing shots during their campaigns. What do you think of Pat Jasan?

Their intentions are good, but we want them to cooperate with us within the legal framework to combat drugs more effectively. We've invited them to cooperate. We've formed anti-drug committees at the district, township, ward and village levels. If they can work in close coordination, we'll be able to overcome the drug problem.

In Special Region (1), militias have admitted to also growing poppies. How will the government handle this?

Frankly speaking, it is difficult to handle. Militias and border guard forces are controlled by the army. We cannot handle them directly and there are difficulties.

How is Myitsone Dam project going now?

The report on the dam has yet to be the submitted to the President. This is all I can say for the time being. The public will be informed after the report is submitted.

I heard that a Chinese government delegation met the Kachin Baptist Convention (KBC) and talked about resuming the dam project. Did China talk with the Kachin State government about the dam?

No, they didn't.

People object to the project. What is the stance of the Kachin State government?

We share the same view as the people. They elect us and their wishes are of the utmost importance to us. If the people don't want it, it won't happen.

Why has it taken so long to submit the report [on the assessment of the possible impacts of the dam] to the President?

There is a lot to coordinate between different stakeholders. The process also included consultation with international experts, which takes a while.

I've talked to locals and they are concerned that the Myitsone Dam project will be resumed. What would you say to them?

I would say that it depends on their wishes.

Locals have borne the brunt of clashes between the Myanmar Army and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), who were fighting for their own reasons. What do you have to say about that?

As we've not yet achieved peace, problems such as displacement arise when the Tatmadaw [Myanmar Army] conducts clearance operations in areas that are not controlled by the government. What we can do is to minimize the troubles people are facing. We are different. The Tatmadaw carries out [operations] with a military outlook.

Speaking of clashes in Kachin State, it is the Tatmadaw that launched assaults, and local activists claim that it doesn't want peace. What do you think?

As I've said, it acted with a military outlook. Its primary concern is state security and it acts based on that.

What are the challenges facing the Kachin State civilian government?

As peace is not yet achieved, there are some difficulties in the administrative system. I don't want to go into detail.

Kachin people had great expectations for the National League for Democracy (NLD) government as well as your [state] government. But they have faced some frustrations. What would you say to your constituents?

We have only been in office for 18 months and we are seeing the problems that people face. We will try our best to mitigate these. We have a mission and a vision.

Our vision is a peaceful, modern, developed, drug-free state with the co-existence of Union brethren. Our mission is peace, smooth transportation, electricity supply for all towns and villages, drug elimination, and strengthening friendship between ethnicities, security and rule of law.

We'd also strive for the socio-economic development of local people by promoting agriculture, livestock breeding and tourism. And we are inviting foreign direct investment in agricultural and livestock sectors in our state.

We will also make sure there is reliable and speedy public service delivery as well as fight corruption. These are our goals for the five-year term.

The post 'Our Top Priority is to Achieve Peace' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Locals to Protest UNESCO Natural World Heritage Designation at Hkakabo Razi

Posted: 25 Sep 2017 07:23 AM PDT

YANGON — Citing concerns of land loss, locals are planning protests over a Mt. Hkakabo Razi National Park expansion project, which aims to distinguish the locale as Myanmar's first UNESCO Natural World Heritage Site. Demonstrations are scheduled to be held in northern Kachin State's Putao, Machanbaw and Naungmon townships on Sept. 28.

U Yaw Gu, chair of Rawang Literature and Cultural Affairs in Putao, told The Irrawaddy that around 10,000 people are expected to participate in the protests.

"Locals don't agree with expanding the area for Mt. Hkakabo Razi National Park. They believe that it will impact their life negatively," he explained.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation published an announcement that the mountain's national park would be expanded so that it could earn Myanmar's first Natural World Heritage Site designation.

The Kachin Political Cooperation Committee (KPCC) published a statement on Sept. 18 condemning the ministry's announcement and calling on them to stop the implementation of the process.

"We objected to the project due to people's will. There's no transparency in it and locals will not get compensation […] for losing their land due to the expansion of the area," said U Lan Yaw, general secretary of the Kachin National Congress Party.

"We simply don't want anyone to exploit our land," he added, citing previous land grabs in the Hukawng Valley Wildlife Sanctuary.

Hkakabo Razi's landscape is rich in ecological diversity, including rare species of orchids.

Mt. Hkakabo Razi National Park was established in 1996 with an area of 1,472 square miles around Southeast Asia's highest mountain, located in Putao, Kachin State.

Myanmar's Forest Department has working with UNESCO since 2013 to designate the area as a Natural World Heritage Site. The Forest Department and UNESCO are now undergoing an intiative to "safeguard natural heritage" in Myanmar. According to a Forest Department announcement, community members from nearby villages have been appointed and trained as park guards in both the national park and the wildlife sanctuary to monitor and report on the illegal activities in the areas.

The tentative list of Natural World Heritage Sites in Myanmar include the Hkakabo Razi landscape, Hukawng Valley Wildlife Sanctuary, Indawgyi Wildlife Sanctuary, Natmataung National Park, Myeik Archipelago, the Irrawaddy River Corridor and the Tanintharyi Forest Corridor. Among these tentative sites, Mt. Hkakabo Razi has been given top priority; the UNESCO World Heritage Committee has already acknowledged all of the potential sites.

The post Locals to Protest UNESCO Natural World Heritage Designation at Hkakabo Razi appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Govt Urges UNFC to Cooperate with Peace Process

Posted: 25 Sep 2017 05:08 AM PDT

CHIANG MAI, Thailand — The government's Peace Commission on Monday urged the ethnic bloc of nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) non-signatories the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) to cooperate with the government to achieve peace in the country.

Peace Commission members and the UNFC's delegation for political negotiation (DPN) met for informal talks in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand on Monday, with Peace Commission member U Aung Soe and DPN head Khu Oo Reh making opening remarks.

Monday's meeting follows the sixth round of formal talks between the two parties in Yangon last month. Talks have been delayed due to the illness of Peace Commission chair Dr. Tin Myo Win and instability in Rakhine State since Aug. 25.

Khu Oo Reh said the UNFC had the same will to continue talks and understood the delay due to unavoidable causes.

Talks covered the DPN's nine-point proposal to signing the NCA, the seventh round of formal talks, and the possibility of high-level meetings between the government and UNFC leaders.

"We have been thinking whether it would be smoother to have [high-level] negotiations through our senior leaders, or whether we should continue this current form of negotiation," Khu Oo Reh said in his speech.

If the ethnic bloc participates in the upcoming third session of the 21st Century Panglong Union peace conference, U Aung Soe said in his speech, "then we could say that our political process is effective to some extent."

The DPN did not join the last session of peace conference in May.

U Aung Soe said the government is collaborating with all relevant stakeholders, including the government, parliament, the Tatmadaw, ethnic armed organizations, and political parties, on the amendments of the political dialogue framework in order to convene the third session of the peace conference.

The government plans to hold the next session in November, though peace negotiators believe it will be delayed.

U Aung Soe said all parties need to try harder to make progress in the peace process as they have not seen any success even though the National League for Democracy (NLD) government has been in power for more than one and a half years.

He said the UNFC should consider collaborating with the civilian government to reach its four commitments to achieve peace, national reconciliation, and rule of law, and to amend the 2008 Constitution.

"Our government believes solving remaining problems would be easier if all of our ethnic groups stand together with us in peace building, along with the current political crisis [in Rakhine]," U Aung Soe added.

The government has not yet, however, entered into talks with the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee—an alliance of armed groups in northern Myanmar led by the United Wa State Army.

There will be a delay in UNFC members signing the NCA due to the seventh round of talks between DPN and the Peace Commission at the beginning of October, said DPN spokesperson Nai Aung Mange at a press conference following the meeting.

He reiterated that collaboration in the peace process would help in the amendment of the Constitution, which parliament also has a part to play in.

He referred to an understanding between the government and the military that a Union Accord agreed upon at the Union Peace Conference could invoke a new constitution, and encouraged everyone's participation.

"We believe we would be able to implement the changes in the 2008 Constitution which is the most important task for our country in the short term, if we combine parliamentary politics and peace process," he said.

"As you all know, we are not able to amend the Constitution without the Tatmadaw's agreement. Thus, if we all try together, we soon will be able to build the democratic federal Union that we all aim for."

The post Govt Urges UNFC to Cooperate with Peace Process appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Muslim Militants Allegedly Kill Hindus, 45 Bodies Unearthed in Rakhine: Community Leader

Posted: 25 Sep 2017 04:00 AM PDT

YANGON – Security forces unearthed 45 dead Hindus, including six children, near Ye Baw Kya village in northern Maungdaw Township, Rakhine State, according to a statement issued by the government's Information Committee and later reports from a Hindu community leader.

The government's statement — based on Hindu community leader U Ni Mal's testimony — on Sunday said members of Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) arrested some 100 men and women from several Hindu villages in Kha Maung Seik village tract on Aug. 25 and killed the majority of abductees.

U Ni Mal told The Irrawaddy this afternoon after he and villagers assisted security forces in searching for additional burial sites.

The community leader claimed the 45 deceased were brutally killed and some were beheaded or had their throats slit. Among the bodies were 20 women, 19 men, and six children. A mass grave of 28 was found of Sunday, with 17 discovered on Monday afternoon.

Twenty eight bodies were unearthed in Rakhine State's Maungdaw Township on September 24. 

(Photo: Thuta Zaw/ Facebook)

U Ni Mal said that the Hindu community had verbally and officially requested that authorities and Arakan National Party lawmakers looks into the deaths, but that there were delays due to security concerns.

The UN estimates that some 500 Hindus fled to Bangladesh after Muslim militants attacked border police posts on August 25 and resulting Myanmar Army security clearance operations have followed. The refugees are sheltering in makeshift camps on the Bangladesh border alongside a UN-estimated 420,000 self-identifying Rohingya Muslims.

U Ni Mal expressed that the Hindu community "wants justice" for these attacks.

Some 30,000 Hindus and Buddhists in Maungdaw were also displaced to other areas in Rakhine State after military clearance operations began following Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army attacks on border police posts.

During a visit by The Irrawaddy's reporter in early September, some Hindus expressed that they would no longer live alongside Muslims in Maungdaw if the government planned to relocate them.

"We are not comfortable living alongside them anymore," said U Ni Mal.

The post Muslim Militants Allegedly Kill Hindus, 45 Bodies Unearthed in Rakhine: Community Leader appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

More Than 700 Stranded on Myitkyina-Tanai Road in Kachin State

Posted: 25 Sep 2017 02:05 AM PDT

HPAKANT, Kachin State — More than 700 people were stranded in a village in Kachin State's Hpakant Township after the Myanmar Army blocked some 70 vehicles on the Myitkyina-Tanai road, claiming the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) was collecting taxes from vehicles in the area.

The Tatmadaw's Light Infantry Battalion No. 298 based near Dun Bum village blocked passengers travelling in both directions at noon on Friday—including children, elderly people, and pregnant women.

Trucks carrying oil and produce from state capital Myitkyina to Tanai were also blocked by the army.

On Sunday morning, the battalion allowed six of the more than 70 vehicles to pass, but continued to block the rest.

"The [Myanmar] army blocked [the road] as the KIA collected money around Lawa [village] in Hpakant since Sept. 22," said Ko Sai, the driver of a small passenger vehicle running between Myitkyina and Tanai.

He said he paid 50,000 kyats to the KIA for a year and had received a KIA receipt, which he presents at KIA checkpoints. The fee per passenger is usually 5,000 kyats, he added.

According to other drivers travelling between Myitkyina and Tanai, the KIA charges 50,000 kyats on small vehicles and 100,000 to 200,000 kyats on bigger ones, per year, to use the road.

A Myanmar Army soldier on duty at Dun Bum said the battalion was blocking the road so as to avoid passenger vehicles being trapped armed clashes.

"The KIA would get a lot of money even if they only collect 5,000 kyats per person. They always collect money," said the soldier. "Some travelers think we are deliberately causing delays to their trips," he added.

According to locals, Battalions No. 6 and 14 of KIA Brigade No. 2 are active in Dun Bum and Lawa villages where KIA was reportedly collecting money.

"We didn't start collecting money a few days ago, we have been doing it for over 50 years," Lt-Col Tang San of KIA Battalion No. 6 told The Irrawaddy. "We solicit donations, we don't deny it. But we don't block the road and ask for money," he added.

There is no military tension between KIA Battalion No. 6 and the Myanmar Army in Hpakant at the moment and the road is accessible, he said.

"We don't block civilians. It is the [Myanmar] army that blocks travelers when we [KIA troops] come out [of the forest]. We only usually come out onto the road once a month," said Lt-Col Naw Bu, a spokesperson of KIA.

Among those stranded, some were traveling onward to Mandalay, Yangon, and Shan State.

One stranded driver, who wished to remain anonymous, said that when the road is closed like this, it usually lasts at least three days.

"I'm used to this situation so I always bring a mat and bedding with me," he said. "We have to stay alert for possible armed clashes in the forest."

Daw Sami, who was travelling to Myitkyina said: "It is not convenient to sleep and relieve oneself here on the road. I've travelled at least ten times on this road. If we met KIA, we gave them money. We had no trouble. Being stranded here costs more [than paying money to KIA]."

According to drivers and local residents, passenger vehicles were blocked by the Myanmar Army in Tingkawk and Kawng Ra villages in Tanai Township for the same reason from Sept. 16 to 18.

Military tensions remain high in the area as Myanmar Army attacked gold mines operated by the KIA in Hpakant's Sha Htu Zup village in August last year, as well as amber and gold mines in Tanai Township in June this year.

The Myanmar Army believes the KIA earns around 2.8 billion kyats in tax each year  from illegal gold and amber mines, which it uses for the procurement of arms and ammunitions to fight the army.

Myanmar Army helicopters dropped leaflets in the second week of June, asking people in the mining areas to leave by June 15 or else be recognized as insurgents supporting the KIA.

This was followed by attacks that forced around 10,000 locals and many more migrant miners to take shelter in Tanai Town. There have been frequent reports of gunfire on the Myitkyina-Tanai road.

The Myanmar Army reportedly limited fuel and food shipments to Tanai as part of their campaign to close the mines in that area.

The post More Than 700 Stranded on Myitkyina-Tanai Road in Kachin State appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Yangon Govt to Accommodate Squatters by 2020

Posted: 25 Sep 2017 12:00 AM PDT

YANGON — The Yangon regional government will provide accommodation for all squatters in the region in the next three years before the current administration's term expires in 2020, said Yangon chief minister U Phyo Min Thein.

"We've started making preparations this month to accommodate squatters. Our regional government will draw up a plan to accommodate them because squatters are a burden to industrial zones," said the chief minister at a meeting between Vice President U Myint Swe and businesspeople in Yangon on Saturday.

The regional government surveyed the population of squatters since last September and issued smart identity documents to them. According to the survey, there are some 100,000 squatters in the region.

There have been reported cases of squatters occupying vacant spaces in factory compounds in some of the region's 29 industrial zones and demanding money from factory owners to vacate.

To upgrade the region's industrial zones, it is important to address the issue of squatters, said U Phyo Min Thein.

"Squatters, water and electricity supply, sewage systems, and dumping are the pressing issues to upgrading the industrial zones. And we plan to build industrial zones in every township [in Yangon]," said the chief minister.

The plan also includes the creation of jobs at new industrial zones for squatters, he said.

According to the regional government, it also plans to establish small-scale industrial zones in 12 townships in the region outside the municipal border of the Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC).

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

The post Yangon Govt to Accommodate Squatters by 2020 appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

UN Medics See Evidence of Rape in Myanmar Army ‘Cleansing’ Campaign

Posted: 24 Sep 2017 10:35 PM PDT

COX'S BAZAR, Bangladesh — Doctors treating some of the 429,000 self-identifying Rohingya Muslims who have fled to Bangladesh from Myanmar in recent weeks have seen dozens of women with injuries consistent with violent sexual attacks, UN clinicians and other health workers said.

The medics' accounts, backed in some cases by medical notes reviewed by Reuters, lend weight to repeated allegations, ranging from molestation to gang rape, leveled by women from the stateless minority group against Myanmar's armed forces.

Myanmar officials have mostly dismissed such allegations as militant propaganda designed to defame its military, which they say is engaged in legitimate counterinsurgency operations and under orders to protect civilians.

Zaw Htay, spokesman for Myanmar's de facto leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, said the authorities would investigate any allegations brought to them. "Those rape victim women should come to us," he said. "We will give full security to them. We will investigate and we will take action."

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi herself has not commented on the numerous allegations of sexual assault committed by the military against self-identifying Rohingya women made public since late last year.

Violence erupted in Myanmar's northwestern Rakhine State following attacks on security forces by Rohingya militants last October. Further attacks on Aug. 25 provoked a renewed military offensive the United Nations has called "ethnic cleansing."

Reuters spoke with eight health and protection workers in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar district who between them said they had treated more than 25 individual rape cases since late August.

The medics say they do not attempt to establish definitively what happened to their patients, but have seen an unmistakable pattern in the stories and physical symptoms of dozens of women, who invariably say Myanmar soldiers were the perpetrators.

It is rare for UN doctors and aid agencies to speak about rape allegedly committed by a state's armed forces, given the sensitivity of the matter.

"Inhuman Attack"

Doctors at a clinic run by the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM) at the Leda makeshift refugee say they treated hundreds of women with injuries they said were from violent sexual assaults during the army operation in October and November.

There have been fewer rapes reported among the influx of refugees since August, said Dr. Niranta Kumar, the clinic's health coordinator, but those they have seen have injuries suggesting "more aggressive" attacks on women.

Several health workers suggested that, whereas in October many women had initially remained in their villages believing the army sweeps were only targeting self-identifying Rohingya men, this time most had fled at the first sign of military activity.

Doctors at the Leda clinic showed a Reuters reporter three case files, without divulging the identity of the patients. One said a 20-year-old woman was treated on Sept. 10, seven days after she said she was raped by a soldier in Myanmar.

Handwritten notes say she said soldiers had "pulled her hair" and a "gun used to beat her" before raping her.

Examinations often find injuries suggesting forced penetration, beating and even what looked like intentional cutting of the genitals, doctors said.

"We found skin marks, it showed a very forceful attack, an inhuman attack," said IOM medical officer Dr. Tasnuba Nourin.

She had seen incidents of vaginal tearing, bite marks and signs that seemed to show a firearm was used to penetrate women, she said.

Among the new influx of self-identifying Rohingya she had treated at least five women who appeared to have been recently raped, she said, adding that in each case the physical injuries observed were consistent with the patient's account of what had happened.

"Fraction of the Cases"

At Bangladesh government clinics supported by UN agencies in the Ukhia area, doctors reported treating 19 women who had been raped, said Dr. Misbah Uddin Ahmed, head of the main health complex there, citing reports from female clinicians.

"The evidence included bite marks, tearing of the vagina, these sorts of things," he said.

In one day alone, Sept. 14, six women showed up at one of the clinics, all saying they were sexually assaulted. "They all said Myanmar army had done this."

An IOM doctor who asked not to be identified, working at one of those clinics near the Kutapalong refugee camp, said a woman who crossed from Myanmar in late August said she was raped by at least seven soldiers.

"She was extremely weak and traumatized and said she struggled to make it to the clinic," the doctor said. "She had a laceration on the vagina."

The doctor treated 15 of the 19 cases of women who appeared to have been raped, and another eight women who had been physically assaulted. Some were given emergency contraceptives, and all were given treatment to reduce the risk of contracting HIV and jabs against hepatitis. Symptoms included bite marks over the arms and back, tearing and laceration on the vagina and vaginal bleeding, the doctor said.

Internal reports compiled by aid agencies in Cox's Bazar recorded that 49 "SGBV survivors" were identified in just four days between Aug. 28-31. SGBV, or sexual and gender-based violence is used to refer to only cases of rape, according to UN doctors. Data for reported rape cases was not available for other dates.

A situation report from aid agencies says more than 350 people had been referred for "life-saving care" relating to gender-based violence – a broad term that includes rape, attempted rape and molestation, as well as emotional abuse and denial of resources based on gender – since Aug. 25. It did not refer to the perpetrators.

Kate White, emergency medical coordinator for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in Cox's Bazar said the charity had treated at least 23 cases of sexual and gender-based violence including gang-rape and sexual assault since Aug. 25.

"This is a fraction of the cases that are likely to be out there," she said.

"Rape as a Weapon"

Reuters first reported allegations of mass rape of self-identifying Rohingya women within days of militant attacks in northern Rakhine in October.

The same reports were also heard by UN investigators who visited Bangladesh in January.

A report of the UN Secretary General in April said the sexual assaults were "apparently employed systematically to humiliate and terrorize their community".

Before her rise to power last year Daw Aung San Suu Kyi had spoken of rape being used as a tool of division in the country's myriad ethnic conflicts.

"It is used as a weapon by armed forces to intimidate the ethnic nationalities and to divide our country, this is how I see it," she said in 2011 in a video message to a conference on sexual violence in conflict.

Her spokesman Zaw Htay said there was "nothing to say" when asked if her view had changed since then. "Everything should be according to the rule of law," he said. "The military leaders also have said they will take action."

The post UN Medics See Evidence of Rape in Myanmar Army ‘Cleansing’ Campaign appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Thai Junta Leaders, Backers Fuel Suspicions of Plans to Stay in Power

Posted: 24 Sep 2017 10:01 PM PDT

BANGKOK, Thailand — In his dark suit, Thai junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha cut an incongruous figure guiding a rice tractor across a muddy paddy field in front of cameras and watching villagers.

The prime minister's latest photo opportunity won applause from farmers watching in straw hats and his visit to Suphan Buri on Monday brought a call from a local political bigwig for him to stay in power for another decade.

Political activities in Thailand have been suspended since Prayuth's 2014 coup, but Thai politicians are asking whether what looks like campaigning is exactly what it seems.

The trips to the countryside, a new Facebook account and a chorus of political groups offering support are raising suspicions of a plan to keep Prayuth in power even if long-promised elections happen next year.

"It's not beyond expectations that he is out campaigning in the provinces to prepare to become prime minister again," said Chaturon Chaisang, a leader of the Pheu Thai party, which under various names has won every election for a generation.

Since August, Prayuth has visited six provinces, including places traditionally considered important battlegrounds for elections. Such trips with his cabinet will now be monthly.

In the previous three years, he had only taken two such trips outside Bangkok.

"I am not here to make people love me, but I want everyone to love the country," Prayuth, 63, told farmers in Suphan Buri, 100 km (60 miles) north of Bangkok.

Said 60-year-old farmer Samruay Tongpratet: "If the prime minister can truly help the poor then he can stay as long as he wants."

Prayuth's office declined to comment on any plan to keep him in power.

Cremation and Coronation

Politics will not resume until well after the cremation next month of the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who died last October, and the subsequent coronation of his son, King Maha Vajiralongkorn.

In the meantime, Prayuth has the field to himself.

"That's why he needed to hold these mobile cabinet meetings in the provinces, act more like a politician, hold rallies, and meet the people," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, noting the signs that Prayuth wants to stay longer.

Last month, Prayuth set up a Facebook page with pictures of him walking with his arm around a farmer's shoulder and giving alms to monks. It now has nearly 11,000 likes.

A poll in June showed that 53 percent of Thais would like Prayuth to serve another term.

Although Thailand's economic growth lags other countries in Southeast Asia and dissent is strongly repressed, surveys show that Prayuth's backers welcome the stability since the coup.

Whether that calm survives electioneering is another question after over a decade of turmoil between colour-coded factions that Prayuth said he sought to end with his coup.

On one side is the 'yellow' Democrat Party, which is popular with middle-class voters and has strong support in Bangkok and parts of the south.

On the other side is the 'red' movement of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose parties appeal to poorer voters, particularly in the populous northeast.

Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was overthrown by Prayuth in the 2014 coup and last month fled Thailand ahead of a verdict in a corruption trial – eliminating a charismatic party figurehead who might also have rallied opposition to Prayuth.

'Outside Prime Minister'

Although he cannot technically stand for election because he would have needed to resign by July, a new constitution drawn up at the junta's behest does offer him a route.

He could be chosen as an "outside prime minister" – foreseen under the constitution if the winning party fails to get enough votes for its candidate in the 500-member lower house of parliament.

In such a case, the upper house would also have a say – its 250 members will be picked by the military. Prayuth would still need support from at least half the lower house, however.

Although neither of Thailand's two main political parties has said it would endorse him, smaller players are mobilizing.

Paiboon Nititawan, a former member of a now-defunct reform council, has set up an office for a new People's Reform Party to back Prayuth.

Suchart Chantharachotikul, a classmate of Prayuth from military school, told Reuters he is coordinating smaller parties to form a grouping to back the junta leader.

"Prayuth's military government isn't perfect, but they took care of problems like unrest. It wouldn't be so strange if he stays on for another four years," Suchart said.

A composer of sentimental ballads, Prayuth has dropped hints in his music of a longer term political future. His latest song, "Bridge", repeats a message that he will stay as long as it takes to steer Thailand through troubled waters.

"My two hands won't let you go," says one refrain.

The post Thai Junta Leaders, Backers Fuel Suspicions of Plans to Stay in Power appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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