Monday, January 4, 2016

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


KIO Denies Allegations of Forced Recruitment in Shan State

Posted: 04 Jan 2016 02:10 AM PST

Kachin Independence Army soldiers in 2013. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

Kachin Independence Army soldiers in 2013. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) has refuted allegations from a Shan political party that it forcibly recruited villagers in Kutkai and Muse townships in northern Shan State.

The Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) made the allegation against the KIO's armed wing, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), in a statement on Saturday, warning the armed group that it risked raising tensions during a period of political transition.

"We condemn such acts against civilians and ask for the immediate release of those arrested," the statement read. "The public's safety and tranquility should be a priority at this time, when everyone is putting their efforts primarily into national reconciliation."

Dau Hka, a member of the KIO's technical advisory team based in the Kachin State capital Myitkyina, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that the matter was "not related to the KIO/KIA."

"I have checked with the headquarters and they have no knowledge about it," he said, adding that there were many small armed groups and factions in northern Shan State, and the issue may have been one of mistaken identity.

Civilians in Muse and Kutkai townships were allegedly forcibly recruited into the KIA's ranks last month, when many ethnic Shan were preparing for New Year festivities, according to Sai Nyunt Lwin, secretary of the SNLD.

"We have to respond to the public's demands as over a dozen ethnic Shan and Palaung [Ta'ang] from four to five villages disappeared," Sai Nyunt Lwin said.

Villagers received a letter from the KIA requesting that they contribute seven civilians from each village to the armed group, the SNLD secretary said, adding that such recruitment drives of ethnic nationalities were not uncommon.

Dau Hka said the KIO had stopped actively recruiting civilians since clashes with the Burma Army in Kachin State's Mohnyin Township in November. He said the group had been running a two-year service program in which recruits join voluntarily.

The SNLD said they have been trying to contact representatives of the Shan State Progressive Party / Shan State Army-North, which has good relations with the KIO, to negotiate on the issue.

Renewed clashes broke out in northern Shan State on Sunday, including in Muse Township, between government troops and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

The post KIO Denies Allegations of Forced Recruitment in Shan State appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Suu Kyi Says Peace Process Will Be Government’s Priority

Posted: 04 Jan 2016 01:19 AM PST

Burma pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi gives a speech to mark Burma's 68th Independence Day at the National League for Democracy (NLD) party head office in Rangoon, January 4, 2016. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Aung San Suu Kyi gives a speech to mark Burma's Independence Day at the National League for Democracy (NLD) party head office in Rangoon, January 4, 2016. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi said on Monday the country's peace process will be the first priority of her new government that will take power later this year, following a landslide victory in a November election.

The country has struggled for decades to reach lasting peace agreements with a multitude of ethnic minority guerrilla groups that have fought against the government for greater autonomy and recognition.

The government signed a ceasefire in October, but the deal fell short of its nationwide billing, with seven of 15 groups invited declining to sign, including some of the most powerful.

Fighting has since flared in eastern parts of the country between the military, non-signatories and groups that did not take part in the negotiations.

"The peace process is the first thing the new government will work on. We will try for the all-inclusive ceasefire agreement," Suu Kyi said in a speech to mark Independence Day at the headquarters of her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), in Rangoon.

"We can do nothing without peace in our country."

Suu Kyi spurned the government-lead peace talks that President Thein Sein touted as a major achievement of his semi-civilian administration, which took power in 2011, ending 49 years of direct military rule.

She did not attend a signing ceremony in October.

The next step in the peace process, a political dialogue with the eight groups that signed, is set to begin on Jan. 12.

The NLD-led government will take power in March following a presidential election expected to take place in February, but the military will remain a powerful political force.

A quarter of seats in parliament are reserved for unelected military officials. Three important cabinet ministers—home affairs, defense and border affairs—are also chosen by the commander-in-chief.

Suu Kyi remains barred from becoming president under the military-drafted constitution.

Suu Kyi's speech was one of her first since winning the election and marked 68 years of Burma's independence.

The Nobel laureate's father, Aung San, is greatly revered in Burma for leading the country's fight for independence from the British and founding the military.

He was assassinated in 1947, six months before his dream of an independent nation was realized when Suu Kyi was just two years old.

The post Suu Kyi Says Peace Process Will Be Government's Priority appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Renewed Fighting Between Govt, TNLA in Shan State

Posted: 04 Jan 2016 01:06 AM PST

A Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) soldier in Mantong Township, northern Shan state, January 15, 2014. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

A Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) soldier in Mantong Township, northern Shan state, January 15, 2014. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Renewed fighting between Burma's Armed Forces and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) broke out in northern Shan State on Sunday, with the ethnic armed group claiming government troops called in aerial firepower to back ground forces.

Mai Aie Kyaw, a spokesperson for the TNLA, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that hostilities broke out in two separate locations in northern Shan State on Sunday.

"Fighting broke out twice yesterday. One of our men was injured. We found the dead bodies of four government soldiers. They came to fire at us with helicopters for about 30 minutes in the evening," Mai Aie Kyaw said.

According to a Facebook post by the TNLA's Information Department, fighting occurred in Nam Loi Lai village of Muse Township involving TNLA Battalion 571 and Burma Army Light Infantry Division 99, lasting from around 10.40 am until after 5 pm.

Separate fighting occurred in Namkham Township involving the TNLA's Battalion 478 and the Burma Army's Light Infantry Division 77, lasting from around noon until 4 pm, according to the Facebook post.

The armed group's information unit also posted photos of what it claimed were helicopter gunships used by government forces on Sunday. The two helicopters attacked the TNLA's Brigade 1 base in Muse Township from 4.40 pm, according to the TNLA.

The Palaung armed group similarly claimed that the government used helicopter gunships on Dec. 14-15 during fighting in Namhsan Township.

The early-January fighting came a few days after Burma Army Commander-in-Chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing pledged to work for peace and stability in 2016 in a new year's message posted to social media.

"The Tatmadaw [Burma Army] is cooperating with the government, focusing mainly on ensuring peace and stability, unity and progress, which are in fact essential requirements for the country," Min Aung Hlaing wrote.

"I solemnly promise that the Tatmadaw will work together with national people in harmony and in unison for further enhancing peace and stability and the prosperity of the country in 2016."

The TNLA was not among armed groups that the government deemed eligible to sign a so-called nationwide ceasefire agreement in mid-October. Only eight armed groups signed the deal, with political dialogue, set to be attended by 700 delegates, to begin on Jan. 12.

The post Renewed Fighting Between Govt, TNLA in Shan State appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Indian Troops Still Fighting 2 Gunmen at Pathankot Air Base

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 09:18 PM PST

An Indian security personnel asks people to move away from the area outside the Indian Air Force (IAF) base at Pathankot in Punjab, India, January 3, 2016.  (Photo: Mukesh Gupta / Reuters)

An Indian security personnel asks people to move away from the area outside the Indian Air Force (IAF) base at Pathankot in Punjab, India, January 3, 2016. (Photo: Mukesh Gupta / Reuters)

PATHANKOT, India — Indian troops were still battling at least two gunmen Sunday night at an air force base near the border with Pakistan, more than a day and a half after the compound came under attack, a top government official said. At least seven troops and four gunmen have been killed in the fighting so far.

The two suspected militants were discovered shortly after noon Sunday and hours later appeared to have been cornered, Home Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi told reporters, adding that he expected the gunmen to be "neutralized" soon.

The attack on the Pathankot air force base started before dawn Saturday and is seen as an attempt to undo recent improvements in the relationship between archrivals India and Pakistan. It comes a week after Narendra Modi became the first Indian prime minister in 12 years to visit Pakistan.

Mehrishi said Indian authorities were alerted Friday afternoon about a potential terror attack in Pathankot, and that aerial surveillance at the base spotted the suspected militants as they entered the compound. He said they were quickly engaged by Indian troops and "were unable to move toward their likely intended target" of the area where the base's aircraft and military equipment are kept.

Since Saturday morning, the base has been swarming with air force commandos, troops from India's elite National Security Guard and local police.

The number of troops killed in the attack rose to seven on Sunday, with four succumbing to their injuries overnight and an elite commando killed in a morning blast that occurred while he was handling explosives, officials said.

The attack at one of India's major air force bases started a few hours before dawn Saturday when a group of militants entered the area of the base where the living quarters are located, the Defense Ministry said. The first gunbattle with the militants lasted about 14 hours, after which the air force said it had begun operations to secure the base.

Mehrishi said that troops were not certain of the presence of additional gunmen until they were discovered Sunday afternoon, and that the two men were cornered in a wooded area of the base by the evening.

"They are limited to an area and we are very hopeful that by this evening these two terrorists will be neutralized," he said.

A senior air force officer, Air Marshal Anil Khosla, told reporters in New Delhi that the base will not be declared fully secured until the entire area is thoroughly checked by troops.

The sprawling Pathankot air force base is spread over several kilometers (miles), including some forested sections. It houses a fleet of India's Russian-origin MiG-21 fighter jets and Mi-25 and Mi-35 attack helicopters, along with other military hardware.

The Defense Ministry said no aircraft or military equipment had been damaged in the fighting.

The base is on the highway that connects India's insurgency-plagued Jammu and Kashmir state with the rest of the country. It's also very close to India's border with Pakistan.

The Himalayan region of Kashmir is divided between India and Pakistan, but is claimed in its entirety by both. Rebels in India's portion of Kashmir have been fighting since 1989 for independence or merger with Pakistan.

India accuses Pakistan of arming and training the insurgents, a charge Islamabad denies, and the attack at the base is being viewed as a possible attempt to unravel recent progress in the relationship between the two nations.

Police have said they're investigating whether the gunmen came from the Indian portion of Kashmir, where rebels routinely stage attacks, or from Pakistan.

The violence follows Indian Prime Minister Modi's surprise Dec. 25 visit to Pakistan, where he met with his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif—a trip that marked a significant thaw in the mostly tense relations between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

The two leaders also held an unscheduled meeting at the Paris climate change talks last month.

Ahead of Modi's visit to Pakistan, the national security advisers of both countries met in Thailand. The foreign secretaries of both nations are scheduled to meet in Islamabad later this month.

The responses to the weekend attack from both countries have been muted so far, with neither New Delhi nor Islamabad giving any indication that the planned talks are under any threat.

In Pakistan, Sharif's foreign affairs adviser, Sartaj Aziz, said in a radio interview Saturday, as the attack was unfolding, that Pakistan wants to consolidate its improved relations with India. Pakistan's foreign ministry condemned the attack.

The reaction in India has also been quiet so far. While all political parties condemned the attack, there was no immediate demand that the government call off talks with Pakistan. In the past, when it was in opposition, Modi's own right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party has been the most vocal critic of engagement with Pakistan, saying that talks and terror should not go together.

But with Modi's own diplomatic engagement with Islamabad at stake, the BJP has given no indication yet that the planned talks have been threatened by the attack.

The post Indian Troops Still Fighting 2 Gunmen at Pathankot Air Base appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Quake Strikes Northeast India; Toll Reaches Four Dead, Nearly 100 Injured

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 09:12 PM PST

An aerial view of the northeastern Indian city of Imphal February 2, 2012. A flurry of high-level official visits shows both countries are keen to get the chemistry right, but at the border area, where smuggling dominates trade, India appears ill prepared for Myanmar's historic opening. Picture taken February 2, 2012. To match Insight MYANMAR-INDIA/  REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri (INDIA - Tags: CITYSPACE POLITICS)

An aerial view of the northeastern Indian city of Imphal, February 2, 2012. (Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters)

GUWAHATI, India — A powerful earthquake struck northeastern India before dawn on Monday, killing at least four people and injuring nearly 100, though the toll was expected to rise, with rescue efforts hampered by severed power supplies and telecommunication links.

The US Geological Survey said the quake of magnitude 6.8 was 57 km (35 miles) deep and struck 29 km (18 miles) west of Imphal, the capital of the Indian state of Manipur bordering Burma.

The quake struck while many residents were asleep, and roofs and staircases of some buildings collapsed in the city of about 270,000 people.

"It was the biggest earthquake we've felt in Imphal," disaster response worker Kanarjit Kangujam told Reuters by telephone.

Police and hospitals in Imphal said the casualty toll had reached four dead and nearly 100 injured.

Disaster rescue workers battled to find workers believed to have been buried beneath the rubble of a building that had been under construction. They were unsure how many might be trapped.

Residents of Imphal said people fled their homes and power and telecoms links were down in the remote region.

Some lashed out at what they called the authorities' slow response, saying that although the army had begun to clear some debris, it appeared to be short on heavy equipment.

"We haven't seen any help from the government side until now," said Kangujam, the disaster response volunteer in Manipur. "The government has not given us any information."

Government officials leading the rescue effort could not immediately be reached for comment.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted that he was in touch with authorities in the northeast. Rescue teams from Guwahati, in neighboring Assam, were scrambling to reach Imphal.

People in Bangladesh and the Himalayan nation of Nepal ran from their homes, and the quake was also felt as far away as the Burmese city of Rangoon, about 1,176 km (730 miles) to the south, residents said.

An official at Burma's meteorological department in Naypyidaw, the capital, said there were no reports of damage or casualties on the Burmese side of the border.

The post Quake Strikes Northeast India; Toll Reaches Four Dead, Nearly 100 Injured appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Vietnam Protests after China Lands Plane on Disputed Spratlys

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 08:46 PM PST

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang points out a reporter to receive a question at a regular news conference in Beijing, October 27, 2015.  (Photo: Kim Kyung-Hoon / Reuters)

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang points out a reporter to receive a question at a regular news conference in Beijing, October 27, 2015. (Photo: Kim Kyung-Hoon / Reuters)

HANOI — Vietnam formally accused China of violating its sovereignty and a recent confidence-building pact on Saturday by landing a plane on an airstrip Beijing has built on an artificial island in a contested part of the South China Sea.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Le Hai Binh said the airfield had been "built illegally" on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly archipelago, in territory that was "part of Vietnam's Spratlys".

China's Foreign Ministry rejected the complaint, saying that what was a test flight to the newly built airfield on the reef, which China calls Yongshu Jiao, was a matter "completely within China's sovereignty," the Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.

The United States said it was concerned that the flight had exacerbated tensions.

Washington has criticized China's construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea and worries that Beijing plans to use them for military purposes, even though China says it has no hostile intent.

Pooja Jhunjhunwala, a spokeswoman for the US State Department, said there was "a pressing need for claimants to publicly commit to a reciprocal halt to further land reclamation, construction of new facilities, and militarization of disputed features."

"We encourage all claimants to actively reduce tensions by refraining from unilateral actions that undermine regional stability, and taking steps to create space for meaningful diplomatic solutions to emerge," she said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China used a civil aircraft to conduct the flight to test whether the airfield facilities meet civil-aviation standards.

"China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters. China will not accept the unfounded accusation from the Vietnamese side," she said, referring to the Spratlys by their Chinese name.

Hua added that China hoped Vietnam could work to achieve "sustainable, healthy and stable" development of bilateral ties.

Hanoi's Foreign Ministry said Vietnam handed a protest note to China's embassy and asked China not to repeat the action.

It called the flight "a serious infringement of the sovereignty of Vietnam on the Spratly archipelago."

China claims almost all the South China Sea, which is believed to have huge deposits of oil and gas, and through which about US$5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year, and has been building up facilities on the islands it controls.

It completed an airfield on Fiery Cross Reef that security experts say could accommodate most Chinese military aircraft late last year.

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan also have rival claims in the South China Sea.

The post Vietnam Protests after China Lands Plane on Disputed Spratlys appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China Challenge: Getting Poor Migrant Workers to Buy Vacant Homes

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 08:31 PM PST

New apartment buildings are seen under construction in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, December 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

New apartment buildings are seen under construction in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, December 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

BEIJING / HONG KONG — Rattled by the potential economic fallout from millions of unsold homes, China wants migrant workers to buy properties in smaller cities and ease the burden on a real estate sector that makes up about 15 percent of the country's economic growth.

The move underscores Beijing's concerns over a stock of some 1 billion square meters of vacant housing—around 13 million homes or enough to house the population of Australia—and the broader knock-on effect of any defaults by struggling property developers as the world's second-largest economy grows at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century.

While encouraging migrants to buy homes in lower-tier cities seems like a remedy to boost demand, making money available to them will prove tougher. Many of China's more than 270 million migrants earn below 3,000 yuan (US$462) a month, less than half the cost per square meter needed for a home in a lower-tier city such as Changzhou, in eastern Jiangsu province.

With low incomes and few assets, migrant laborers are not obviously attractive loan candidates, and the authorities will need to find property developers willing to sell homes at a discount and local governments ready to subsidize purchases.

"Conditions are not mature for migrant workers to buy unsold homes. You can't count on a certificate for housing ownership to resolve everything," said Jason Hu, head of research at Chinese property consultant Holdways in Beijing.

"Everyone wants to settle in the city, but where's the money?" said Hu, adding other issues need to be resolved such as giving migrant workers equal access to social security and public services.

Distant Dream

Senior leaders have said China will step up efforts to tackle property inventories this year, including helping migrant workers buy or rent homes in cities, and encouraging developers to cut prices.

Authorities aim to get 100 million migrants to settle in cities by 2020, and officials in small-and medium-sized cities have pledged to give permanent resident status, or hukou, to more rural people, although access to welfare remains a concern.

Another potential obstacle is that more than 70 percent of migrant workers already living in cities prefer to rent, according to National Health and Family Planning Commission data.

"If I can earn enough I'd go back to the city near my hometown and buy a home there," said a restaurant worker in Beijing who gave just his surname of Long. "Prices here are too high, it's impossible for me to settle here," added the 26-year-old who left his village in central Hunan province five years ago.

With home ownership still a distant dream for most low-income migrant workers, the challenge is to make homes more affordable.

"The hurdle is very clear: how to encourage the low income group to purchase property—to improve affordability," said Zhou Hao, economist at Commerzbank in Singapore.

In a bid to prevent struggling developers from defaulting if they have to cut prices—and the impact this could have on the underground financial system that funds many of them—local authorities have launched a plan to pilot rural land collateral loans in 291 selected counties.

Urbanization

It is not yet clear whether property developers and local governments—which earn much of their revenue through land sales—will be willing to support Beijing's attempts to clear bloated housing inventory.

"I'm not sure what the government could do to 'encourage price cuts' unless it's going to subsidize them," said Yin Chin Cheong, a Singapore-based analyst at CreditSights.

Some developers welcomed the move, saying the proposal is part and parcel of China's urbanization process.

"It would stimulate demand for housing. But these are not temporary measures to run down inventory, they are part of a long-term urbanization," said Fan Xiaochong, vice president of Sunshine 100, a developer focused on second- and third-tier cities.

Beijing also wants low-income city residents and those living in dilapidated housing to buy cheaper unsold homes.

While parallels have been drawn with the US subprime crisis, which was also preceded by excess housing inventory, risky mortgages and aggressive lending, some experts shrugged off such a scenario.

"Mortgage penetration levels are lower and down-payments are higher compared with the US, and household debt is much lower. So it's unlikely to snowball into a sub-prime like situation," said Christopher Yip, Hong Kong-based analyst at Standard & Poor's.

The post China Challenge: Getting Poor Migrant Workers to Buy Vacant Homes appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


Military accused of ceasefire breach

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 02:30 PM PST

In the first reported breach of the nationwide ceasefire agreement, the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) has accused the government of violating the terms of the accord by attacking its forces in the southeast of the state.

Network chooses two for global youth meet

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 02:30 PM PST

Two outstanding young people have been chosen to represent their organisations, and their country, in an international leadership program. The National Youth Congress (NYC) of Myanmar selected Ko Saw Thura Aung and Ma Su Pone Chit to go abroad next year, selection board member Ko Thet Swe Win told The Myanmar Times yesterday.

Stay or go: Abused migrants face tough choice in Singapore

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 02:30 PM PST

After facing abuse and battery at the hands of their employer, Myanmar domestic workers in Singapore are confronted with a difficult choice: stay and press charges, in often lengthy investigations that rehash their pain, or return home and relinquish any opportunity for recompense.

NLD under pressure over Koh Tao

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 02:30 PM PST

A leading nationalist monk has called on the National League for Democracy to stand up for the two young Myanmar men sentenced to death in Thailand and says more protests against their conviction will be staged in Yangon tomorrow.

Anger as officials decree landmark lake a pond

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 02:30 PM PST

When is a lake not a lake? Tchaikovsky never wrote the ballet Swan Pond. King Arthur did not receive his sword Excalibur from The Lady of the Pond. Wordsworth never sought his poetic muse in England's Pond District.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Burma Army attacks NCA signatory RCSS/SSA-S in eastern Shan State

Posted: 04 Jan 2016 12:23 AM PST

A clash between the Burma Army and the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South (RCSS/SSA-S) on New Year's Eve marked the first outbreak of conflict between government forces and an ethnic armed group signatory to the country's Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).



According to an RCSS/SSA-S spokesperson, fighting occurred at about 1 p.m. on December 31 in Mong Peng Township in eastern Shan State's Kengtung District. The clash allegedly lasted one hour and involved the Burma Army Battalion No. 278 and RCSS/SSA-S troops.

"They [the Burma Army] attacked us. We lost one soldier and another one was injured," said Col. Sai La of the RCSS/SSA-S. "But no casualties from Burma's side have been reported."

A source close to the Burma Army in Kengtung, who spoke to SHAN on the condition of anonymity, alleged that Batallion No. 278 "got the command" to attack when RCSS/SSA-S troops entered territory claimed by government forces.

Sai La responded by saying that the RCSS/SSA-S has been active in the disputed area in Mong Peng Township since the days of the Mong Tai Army (MTA), referring to the Shan State force led by Khun Sa who later surrendered to the Burmese military government in 1996.

He also pointed out that the group's longtime presence in the area could be vouched for by the region's locals.

"We do not understand why they attacked us," he said, of the Burma Army.

Sai Khuensai, an advisor to the RCSS/SSA-S and the managing director of the Pyidaungsu Institute, told SHAN that the Burma Army's actions in Mong Peng might dissuade non-signatory ethnic armed groups from signing the NCA and taking an active role in the peace process.

The RCSS/SSA-S was one of the country's eight ethnic armed groups—of more than 20—to sign a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with representatives of Burma's government on October 15 of last year. The next step in the country's peace process is a national political dialogue is scheduled to begin on January 12.

In September, SHAN reportedthat U Hla Maung Shwe, a senior advisor at the Myanmar Peace Center, said that the NCA might only "reduce" fighting. In the same article, Sai La, of the RCSS/SSA-S, worried that clashes could continue as long as the territories of government and ethnic armed groups are not clearly defined.

By SAI AW / Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N)


The NCA: Let not one rotten fish fill the whole boat with foul smell

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 10:48 PM PST

It was Lincoln who once said, "If a man ceases to attack me, I never remember the past against him."

The implication is crystal clear. If that man returns to his bad ways again, all his past misdeeds will be remembered. Not only what he did, but all those what his friends, and his outfit has done, past and present. Worse, all the good deeds that his group has done may be forgotten.

The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), though signed by 8 of the 15 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) recognized by the government on 15 October, was approved by the Union Legislature on 8 December, thanks to the efforts of government leaders like U Aung Min and U Thein Zaw.

To add to the credit of the government, and especially the military, negotiations that followed the NCA signing military Code of Conduct (COC) and terms of reference (TOR) for the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM), Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) and Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) that will oversee the political negotiations went smooth, mostly because military representatives graciously conceded that all the demands by the signatory EAOs were in line with the NCA.

The understanding showed by the military was such there were even unfounded but understandable accusations from some quarters that the signatories were working hand in glove against the non-signatories. That was until the 77th day after the NCA signing.

On New Year's eve came the unexpected blow: A patrol of the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA), better known as SSA South, was attacked by a column of the seemingly friendly Infantry Battalion (IB) 278 in Mongpu, Mong Piang township eastern Shan State.  The SSA reportedly lost one fighter.

But the loss was more than one precious life. Both the SSA and the local people appeared to have lost confidence in the Burmese military as an institute of honor. Hardliners in the EAOs, both signatories and non-signatories, moreover have been "proven" by that unfortunate oversight that they have been right all along.

The only things that can save the day appear to be the speedy establishment of JMCs at state and local levels, and the holding of the political dialogues in faith by both sides, especially by the government side.

If not, not only can we not expect the non-signatories to come on board, even the signatories will be leaving it, deciding that War War, if we are permitted to counter-paraphrase Churchill, may be bloodier  but less dishonest than Jaw Jaw.




Does starting of Union Peace Convention by Thein Sein regime hastily make sense?

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 06:50 PM PST

The Myanmar Peace Center (MPC), Thein Sein's think-tank and PR Office, including government's organs of Union Peace-making Working Committee (UPWC) and Union Peace-making Central Committee (UPCC) are keen to leave a political legacy of peace process, aside from having to toe the timeline as prescribed by the so-called nationwide ceasefire Agreement (NCA). At least this is the position that Thein Sein Regime is projecting.
But the reality is to control the peace process beyond the end of its regime, when NLD government comes in after March 2016.
All the President's men in MPC don't want to be out of job and of course influence also, for by all means it is a lucrative undertaking with millions of dollars international aid involved. It is even dubbed a peace industrial complex.
Thus it is in the interest of many to keep the armed ethnic conflict alive, first to keep the international aid flowing and second, to justify that the Burma army is needed to keep the country together and so must be kept as a leading role in Burma's politics.
Thein Sein regime's rejection of all-inclusiveness and hastily holding Union Peace Convention in January is aimed at protecting these privileges. Otherwise, if it is sincere, it will just leave the whole task to the incoming NLD regime, for it would be much easier.
Just imagine, the first Union Peace Convention will start on 12 January 2016, but the tenure of Thein Sein regime will end in March and parliament at the end of January.
Isn't this a waste of resources and lack of logical thinking, given that there won't be continuity of government and parliamentarians as the regime change is to occur soon, besides going through all these with just 8 ethnic armed groups, when there are 21 fighting against the regime?
Isn't this supposed to be nationwide and not partial peace process leading to actual ceasefire on the ground and political settlement?

MPC or organization that has been defamed by some media

Posted: 03 Jan 2016 05:56 PM PST


Credit should be given, where it is due. But the point is MPC is a government organ and promote USDP-Military line of thinking. And as such, the core theoretical underpinning is to uphold the main strategic thinking of military and Bamar supremacy scheme.

It could be much better, if millions of international aid Dollars could be given to a neutral body to promote and facilitate the peace process, rather than just financing the government organ- the MPC. Everyone with a sense of simple logic knows that a balance outcome, especially where political settlement is concerned, between the military-dominated clique and the ethnic nationalities, armed or unarmed, cannot be achieved.

It is not the question of personal jealousy but a justified distribution of resources - in this sense peace process funding of the adversaries or negotiating partners- that is to be questioned and not anything else. To put it differently, the ethnic nationalities' camp as a whole is handicaped in a lot of sectors, including financial help, for the government side is getting all the needed help from the international donars, when the ethnic camp is getting next to nothing.

That is why, the struggle to obtain a genuine, justified federal union will be an uphill battle for the ethnic nationalities. But at least, with the partial change of guard in the governance of the country, as NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi would occupy the coming administration, there is still hope for the ethnic nationalities to realize their aspirations.


Regarding the commentary by Si Thu Aung Myint (Mizzima - 31.12.2015)