Shan Herald Agency for News

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The peace process: The iron is still hot Posted: 28 Oct 2014 02:53 AM PDT During the month, we are hearing quite a lot of Mr Derek Mitchell, US ambassador to Burma. This weekend he was in Kachin State visiting the state capital Myitkyina and IDP camps, which ended with a statement expressing "the United State's deep concern about the increase in tension in Hpakant" jadeland. On Sunday, 12 October, he was also in Chiangmai meeting ethnic armed leaders, whom he had urged "not to overestimate their strength and advantage. They should not expect the US on the international community to support them more than they are being supported now. They need to make a deal with the government while they still have the advantage," according to an informed source, who rejected the interpretation that Mr Mitchell has been "pressuring the ethnic armed groups to sign a ceasefire to give (President) Obama positive media coverage while he is in Burma (to attend the November Asian Summit)." So what are the advantages we should be considering? # 1. is that the Thein Sein government, being a transitional government, still have a lot of influence on the military, which we cannot expect the post 2015 President to be able to wield without provoking it, according to the same source # 2. President Thein Sein, coming from  a rigged election, had been in desperate need of international support to prop up his legitimacy, according to another source. The invitation for peace talks with the non-Burman ethnic resistance movements is obviously one way of doing it "That was why, according to the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) set up by the government, he was making concessions like 'to establish a democratic and federal union on the basis of the outcome of the planned political dialogue,'" he said. But as time goes by, the need will lessen, if the critics are right. The time for the ethnic armed movements to strike a solid deal is now and not so wait for the next president. "At least the one we have at present is the devil we know," one added. "His successor, whoever he or she is, might be an angel but also one we cannot be sure of." Not that the ethnic movements should agree to anything without having a cast-iron guarantee in return. But as 2014 draws to a close, all stakeholders, especially the armed resistance, appear to be increasingly pressed for time. Of course, we all know Louis Armstrong had had all the time in the world, but it was for love. In contrast, what are we for?

Re: The peace process: The iron is still hot Posted: 28 Oct 2014 02:52 AM PDT It is true that the "iron is still hot", as pointed out by the SHAN Editorial. But the matter is, it is cooling fast and both sides, the USDP-Military Regime and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO), should take into account. While it is quite easy to put the blame on the EAO for postponing the much talk about Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) until a newly elected regime is in store, after the 2015 election, which is by no means a concrete statement or policy line already decided, it is just a rumor and should only be treated as such. Besides, no one doubts, if the general clause of political settlement, leading to equality, rights of self-determination ေ democracy is accepted and included in the NCA, the EAO will sign it anytime the government wish to do it. But the problem is the USDP-Military Regime has rejected the core ethnic aspirations of "federalism and rights of self-determination", which it previously has accepted in August peace talks, and even refused to put it in the NCA documentation. Apart from that, if ever there is going to be an NCA, the regime insists that it has to sail through the USDP-Military dominated parliament for approval and endorsement, which explicitly means that the EAO must bow to the 2008 military-drawn Constitution without question. This is a non-starter for the EAO have been up in arms to correct this "constitutional crisis" all along, for more equality, democracy and self-determination. The recent military pressures and offensives in Kachin, Shan, Karen and Mon States, coupled with its ultimatum to make use of its "open book" strategy, where individual group could sign the book according to its wish or liking, in contrast to signing it altogether at the same time, are not well thought out plan on the part of the regime, working only on time pressure to achieve result and not accommodating the real aspirations of the non-Burman ethnic nationalities and EAO. Such being the case, it takes two to tango, as the saying goes, the USDP-Military regime should reaffirm its already committed  August agreement of accepting to tackle "federal union and federal army formation" during the political dialogue phase and not rejecting, after agreeing, like it is doing now. Otherwise, the regime would be asking for a "negotiated surrender" of the EAO and this would only lead to more armed confrontation and total break-down of the peace process. The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor

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